Heading into 2026, there's ample reason to be excited about what the Los Angeles Chargers can accomplish.
After posting 11 wins in their first two seasons under Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers addressed virtually everything that prevented them from entering Super Bowl contention during 2025. They, first and foremost, moved away from Greg Roman's stagnant scheme in favor of the explosiveness and innovativeness that Mike McDaniel can provide.
They've also furnished McDaniel with a full array of weapons. Outside of their existing playmakers in Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Omarion Hampton and Oronde Gadsden II, they brought in Alec Ingold, Keaton Mitchell, Charlie Kolar and David Njoku to help complete the offense. If Chris O'Leary can hold up his end of the bargain on the defensive side of the ball, Los Angeles has a real chance to make some noise in the AFC West race this season.
But using betting lines from BetMGM, The Athletic's Vic Tafur highlighted a painful truth in his recent 'best bets' piece for every team in this upcoming campaign. He had the Chargers coming in under 9.5 wins, and while he's on board with most of the changes they've made, it's difficult for him to ignore the sheer impact their schedule could have on their final record.
"This one looks too easy at first glance... But the schedule is a killer. Starting in Week 3, the Chargers play this seven-game stretch: at Bills, at Seahawks, vs. Broncos, at Chiefs, at Rams, vs. Texans, at Ravens. The Chargers also have a whopping seven games with a rest disadvantage, with four opponents coming off a bye, and their overall 24 days of rest disadvantage is one of the worst we’ve seen in a long time." Vic Tafur, The Athletic
The Chargers, no matter what, will need to face the reality of their schedule in 2026
The Chargers finished with 11 wins in 2025 even in spite of the severe deficits in their protection and their overall offensive gameplan. Most of this success can be attributed to two massive wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and their strong, 3-0 start to the season. But it's also impossible to ignore how Los Angeles benefitted from a comparatively light schedule.
A string of games against the Minnesota Vikings, Tennessee Titans, and Pittsburgh Steelers in the middle of the season helped them get back on track when the offense lost its footing, and their bye week granted them a much-needed reset after their lashing at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11.
Even from just a quick glance at the 2026 slate, it's clear that no such reprieve will be coming this season. After two easy matchups to start the campaign against the Arizona Cardinals and the Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles will enter a veritable gauntlet of matchups on either side of their Week 7 bye. Pre-bye, they'll face the Buffalo Bills, Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos, and Kansas City Chiefs. They'll then face the Los Angeles Rams, Houston Texans, and Baltimore Ravens post-bye.
If they can exit that early nine-game stretch with six wins, they'll be in strong shape to surpass their 11-win total from last season. But if the offense gets off to a slow start, they could quickly dig themselves a hole.
Beyond that, though, the Chargers will play seven of their games on rest deficits— and two separate trips to the East Coast to face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Miami Dolphins late in the season won't help matters.
Is meeting or surpassing the 11-wint total set over the past two seasons achievable? Certainly.
But what Chargers fans must ask themselves this offseason is if that's the most realistic scenario. Under 9.5 wins might be far too harsh, but it will take quite a few lucky breaks to meet the expectations that have been set for Los Angeles this offseason.
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