What can you tell us about Patrick Mahomes right now?
His recovery from the ACL?
This is the first big Patrick Mahomes injury, and I think it's worth watching how he comes out of this.
Yeah, we mentioned Brady.
Like there's a lot of analogies you can draw here, right?
Like they're about the same age when the injury happened and You know, I think some of the challenges are gonna be similar.
Um, so what I can tell you is, for the first time in a few years, the Chiefs have set their, their camp up, so their rookies and their quarterbacks report early, right?
Like, so they go away to training camp, Saint Joe, Missouri, it's about an hour north of Kansas City.
Um, the last few years, they've had veterans report altogether.
They're having the quarterbacks come in early now.
So Mahomes will be there on Friday.
Um, and I would anticipate, I think the people that are anticipating that he's gonna be cleared, like fully cleared.
Um, I don't know that for a fact, but that's just kind of the, the, the sense I get.
Now, I don't think that that means it's just like go, you know, like I think they understand because Mahomes was communicating to people in that building, like how much it killed him to not be able to do 11 on 11s, limited as that was in phase 3 of the offseason program.
They all have this feeling like, yeah, when we tell him to go, he is going to go.
And so, like I think there's gonna be an element of protecting him from himself.
It's also, I think, important to note that Andy Reid generally runs one of the tougher training camps, if not the toughest training camp in all football.
And they generally play their player, their, their starters in the preseason.
So, like, I think there's gonna be a little bit of a management of that too.
Um, so, um, you know, I, I, I, like, it's a long way of saying I think they're gonna be smart, um, but he is ahead of schedule in just about every way.
And like that does not mean he is instantly gonna be The Patrick Mahomes, we've all gotten used to watching on September 14th against the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football, but I think we're at the point where it's fair to expect that he's gonna be at least out there on the field and that he is going to get a lot of work in over the course of the summer cause I think he's ready for it.
The big question to me still remains, and the part that makes this burning.
Patrick Mahomes took so many hits over the first couple of weeks of the season last year.
And while it's not a direct corollary to the torn ACL, it's, I think it's like indicative of what we felt of him throughout the year, which is that he was, had to do way too much.
So what you do is you bring back Eric Bi enemy and Kenneth Walker.
And you signed Kenneth Walker.
That's your big offseason upgrade.
There hasn't really been any meaningful change.
You use your, your top five pick, or what was Manr Delane was what, 6567, yeah, so they trade up from 9 to 6, I think it was, right?
So you use your top 6 pick on a cornerback to replace two of the other ones that you let go in free agency.
Um, I, the way that I understood it, that Andy Reid wasn't totally in love with what was going on with the offensive line.
Uh, leading up to this year, and so to me, and, and then your tight end is 30, is gonna be 37, right?
So to me it's like I don't care if he's healthy or not.
Have we done anything to mitigate part of what made him unhealthy in the first place and so much of it's, so much of it's the variables too.
Like I know there had already been some concern about, um.
You know, like lower leg injuries that he'd suffered over the course of his career already, and a lot of that is, um, you know, just so we're clear, I think a lot of that is like the scramble plays, you know, and like, and I think Patrick from having talked to him, he's very cognizant of it, you know, like he, there's a reason he runs more in the playoffs, you know, like he's very judicious about the way he uses his ability to scramble, the way he uses his ability to run.
But if you play that way at all, there's gonna be a certain amount of damage you take on, and he has taken on some of that damage.
That's part of it.
Um, you know, just turned 30, so I think like that's, that was gonna be a part of the equation regardless, you know, in fact, I know that from talking to him.
Um, here's the other piece that I think is Uh, like, to me it's really interesting.
It's just there's a lot of variables, you know, and a lot of it is internally, how much are you gonna improve.
Like you mentioned all those things.
I still think the tackle situation might be the most important, you know, and what happens with Josh Simmons, and can he get his head screwed on straight and play a full seventeen-game season.
Because I think he showed signs of being a Pro Bowl-level left tackle, um, but, you know, of course, there was all of the different things that happened off the field with him last year, which is part of the reason why he was available at the very bottom of the first round, right?
Like he was there because Like there were people that didn't think they could trust the off-field stuff.
Then there's Jalen Moore, now he's the full-time, you know, the full-time right tackle.
What does that look like?
So those two positions are really important, you know, and then, Like, I think just as important as Travis Kelsey, dude, and even like, not maybe not quite as important as Kenneth Walker but right there is like what you get out of Rashi Rice because they've been waiting for so long for him to turn into the number one receiver because they really believe he's got the ability to be, you know, a top 10 receiver, and I think we've all seen those flashes.
It's understandable why they feel that way.
But at some point, he's got to be reliable enough for that to actually happen.
And if that happens, then you don't need to ask as much of Kelsey, you know.
And then, you know, now, Xavier Worthy, Tyquan Thornton, they become more suitable complementary pieces, and Kenneth Walker becomes more dangerous.
So, I, um, I just, I look at the whole of it and it's like, there's just a lot of variables around him.
And I think you got to trust that Andy Reid and, um, you know, and, and Eric Bienna mean and the offensive coaches are gonna figure that out.
I think the defense will be fine.
I, I have no doubt that the defense will be fine.
Uh, and I have my, uh, 12 teams who could win the Super Bowl article coming out.
I think by the time you guys listen to this, it should be on SI.
com so I could talk about this today.
Um, I, I did 14 teams this year and I had a really hard time reasoning with myself as to how the Chiefs can get on it.
And the reason why is, you know, like you said, the defense is going to be fine, but defenses now, at least in this little version of the NFL that we're in right now, this little era, they need to be more than fine.
They need to be hunters, they need to be weaponized.
They need to be table turners.
Um, I don't think they're quite there.
I think that that would be a tough argument for Chiefs fans even to make.
And again, I mean, kind of like we said at the top, like, I don't really care how healthy Mahomes is if nothing around him has dramatically changed and You know, we have no reason to believe like Kelsey's gonna turn back the clock.
You know, there's just nothing, I don't know.
There, there, and, and maybe it's just a lack of, maybe I've over.
Overestimated their struggles from a year ago and that's my own fault.
I don't know.
You tell me.
Again, like I just think it's like a lot of it is based on the variables, I think.
If you look at it though, to me at least, like the variables are I mean, again, barring an injury calamity, which we could say that about every team, right?
Like barring like this like weird string of injuries or whatever.
Um, I think the range is like 10 to 14, right?
Like, I think it's Like with Mahomes as a quarterback is a possi like.
Possible I'm not gonna be surprised.
I'm, I'm just not gonna be surprised.
They've drafted really well, Connor, you know, like I, I like, I, how do we know, for example, like, you know, like Ashton Gillotte, somebody who's had a really strong spring.
How do we know he's not gonna break out and have 8 sacks like Noel Williams, somebody really like a corner.
Like it's just they've done a really good job, and I don't think they've got nearly enough credit for this, but like they went through that period.
They trade Tyreek Hill, right.
And part of trading Tyreek Hill was, we know we're gonna have to get cheaper around Mahomes, right?
Like we know we're gonna have because we got big contracts coming and like, so we need to, we need to kind of build our team with guys on their rookie deals.
And so what do they turn that capital into?
Well, it turned into Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith and, and, and, and Nick Bolton, and some of them were from before them , but follow me here, George Karl Loftus.
And, you know, like, eventually, they have to sign some of those guys and then they have to let McDuffie go, and now they're back there again.
So now they've paid Bolton, they paid Humphrey, they've paid Smith, they've paid Carl Loftus, they let, they, they wind up trading McDuffie, they let Brian Cook go, um, and now they've got to do it again, and I just trust that they're gonna be able to do it again because they have done it before.
And so, I, I just think having, you know, the ultimate trump card in, in, in, in the quarterback they have.
Having the infrastructure, like with Andy Reid as the head coach and Brett Veach as the GM.
Like, I, I'm with you.
Like I, I don't think they're necessarily right back in the Super Bowl mix.
And I think those variables will decide whether they are or they aren't, right?
Like the tackle, the two tackles, what happens with the two tackle spots?
What does Kelsey have left?
What does Rice give you?
What does Walker bring to the table?
What's Delane as a rookie?
Like those are all really important swing factors.
I think like the argument you and I are having is, I think you look at it as OK, it's like those swing factors could dictate between 8 and 12, or maybe I'm saying they could dictate between 10 and 14 wins, you know.
Another thought that just last thought on this , and then we'll move to the next one.
So if you look at the Chiefs, they were 5 and 4 before the bottom fell out before the byeweek, um, right?
And, um, you know, and you can look at this and you can very quickly say, wow, well, you know, they played a, a, a, a 14-win Jaguars team really close.
They beat the Ravens, uh, they, they beat the Lions, they beat the Commanders, but, In reality, right?
You lose to the Chargers in Brazil, you lose to the Eagles in week two, you beat the New York Giants, um, With Russell Wilson.
That was an awful game, uh, in every way, shape or form, just like to be a human watching football.
You beat the Ravens, but half of that game was Cooper Rush.
Um, the Lions had all sorts of problems last year and so you can debate whether or not that was a total quality win.
And then you beat the Commanders with, with Marcus Mariota.
So even last year, if we're looking at this and saying, well, that was still a team with a winning record before, you know, you know, everything kind of started rolling down in there.
Uh, maybe, maybe the floor is lower than we think it is, right?
I don't know, I, I argue like a lot of the variables last year went the wrong way though, and it wasn't just Mahomes getting hurt at the end, which I mean, look, we can all admit like the die was cast by the time Mahomes got hurt.
Mahomes's injury didn't have anything to do with them not making the playoffs.
They weren't making the playoffs anyway, right?
But Raschi Rice got hurt.
I mean, Josh Simmons went AWOL about a month into the season, and that was a problem.
The running back situation was a complete mess, right?
Um, and, and mostly because the guy that they'd really relied on and Isaiah Pacheco couldn't stay healthy.
Um, so, like I think you look at like a lot of things there, a lot of like the variables last year went the wrong way, and then the quarterback got hurt at the end, you know, so, Like I just, again, like it's Can you count on a little better injury luck?
Can you count on some of the variables going the right way?
I just think based on what they've built there over the course of the last, and this goes beyond Mahomes, but basically what they've built there over the course of the last 14 years since Andy Reid got there in the first place, I think it's fair to trust that a lot of those variables that went the wrong way, unfortunately for them all the same, all at the same time, aren't gonna swing in the wrong direction again.