Much to the dismay of their loyal fan base, the New York Giants haven't delivered on expectations in recent years. In both 2024 and 2025, the Giants fell short of ESPN's projected win total by at least 2.5 games.
After the addition of head coach John Harbaugh, analysts expect things to be different in 2026.
Big Blue's over/under win total of 7.5, as noted byThe Athletic's Vic Tafur (who cited BetMGM for the odds) has the veteran NFL writer intrigued enough to have named Big Blue one of the NFL's best bets to beat their expected win total.
Tafur cited Abdul Carter's expected growth as a key selling point, saying, “A big reason why I like this one so much is I also plan to get down on Abdul Carter at 50-1 as Defensive Player of the Year. He had more maturity issues than sacks (four) as a rookie last season, but the 18 QB hits and 66 pressures were impressive.”
Tafur isn't alone in his optimism. Eric Edholm, formerly of NFL.com, named New York a potential playoff dark horse, and Brad Gagnon of Bleacher Report named the Giants one of the most likely teams to go from worst to first in their division.
After a strong offseason, the Giants have given fans and analysts reason to believe the best about their 2026 campaign.
John Harbaugh Has a Winning History
New York Giants head coach John Harbaugh reacts during organized team activities | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Giants have notched eight or more wins only once in their last nine seasons, in 2022, when they went 9-7-1 and made the playoffs.
After only winning seven games in the last two seasons combined, it may seem like wishful thinking to expect Big Blue to push for eight or more wins in 2026, but Harbaugh's arrival, along with Joe Schoen's roster construction, has the Giants set up for success.
In his 18 seasons as the head coach of the Baltimore Ravens, Harbaugh won fewer than eight games just once, and his teams have made the playoffs in six of the last eight years.
That winning mentality has already been established in New York, with Harbaugh's confidence taking root in his players. The head coach runs detailed, meticulous practices, pushing his players to play mistake-free football.
The Giants have been among the NFL's top five teams in offensive penalty rate since 2021, being flagged on 5.6% of their offensive plays. Just reducing that number would put New York more often in the win column.
If they're going to beat their projected win total, the Giants will need young players like Carter and quarterback Jaxson Dart to improve.
The roster has been built around its young core, so natural progression from those and other players will go a long way toward raising the team's bar in Harbaugh's first year at the helm.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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