21 Jul 2026 06:32 BST | 5 min read
Xabi Alonso, Chelsea
Analysis
© IMAGO
Tom Weber
Multilingual sports writer who specialises in European football and American soccer.
Make us your Google favourite
Chelsea are set to sign Aston Villa superstar Morgan Rogers, but this may only be the first of a string of major transfers.
On Saturday, the Blues agreed a deal with the Birmingham club to sign the England star for an eye-watering €138 million. In doing so, Chelsea beat Arsenal to the punch.
The Gunners had agreed terms with Rogers, who was their top summer target, and were getting ready to make their opening offer. However, when their London rivals managed to get in their first, they simply left the talks.
As revealed by FootballTransfers on Monday, Arsenal had no intention of letting themselves be dragged into a bidding war, nor were they prepared to match Chelsea's hefty fee.
The fact that the Blues, who have repeatedly been fined by UEFA and the Premier League for breaching financial rules, are able to shell out €138m on a player without Champions League football raised eyebrows.
How can Chelsea sign Rogers?
As we explained on Sunday, Chelsea will likely find some sort of accounting magic to make it work. It's what they have consistently been doing since the Todd Boehly-Clearlake Capital takeover in 2022.
The fact that they are not in Europe at all this season also helps them, strangely enough. You can't breach UEFA rules if you don't play in UEFA competitions, so this is only something they will need to worry about the next time they qualify for a continental tournament.
Morgan Rogers
© IMAGO - Morgan Rogers
What's more, Chelsea are good sellers. They have made a habit of getting really good value out of their unwanted players, and they have already sold €132m worth of talent this summer. This is crucial because of amortisation.
The cost of an incoming transfer can be spread out over five years, whereas the profit recorded on a sale hits the books immediately. So, Chelsea are essentially paying less than €30m for Rogers this year.
But of course Chelsea have not just signed Rogers. Even before the 23-year-old joined, they had spent almost €120m on signings, and they will likely spend more over the course of the summer.
This is where complications could arise and why Chelsea will likely have to make at least one more big sale this summer. Enzo Fernandez could fetch a huge fee, but who will realistically pay the Blues' €140m asking price?
A move that suits all parties - except the player
A more marketable asset could be Nicolas Jackson - despite his alleged desire to stay and fight for his place. With Chelsea having basically just solved all of Villa's financial troubles (at least for this year), the Birmingham club could return the favour.
That's what happened in 2024 when the two essentially traded Omari Kellyman and Ian Maatsen in order to fix their issues with what were then known as Profitability and Sustainability Rules. They could do the same for Jackson and Rogers.
Aston Villa have been heavily linked with the Senegal striker in recent days. Jackson previously worked with Villa boss Unai Emery at Villarreal, and a reunion could be on the cards.
Chelsea, who spent €37m on the 25-year-old in 2023, demanded €65m from Bayern for his permanent transfer last summer. Unsurprisingly, the Bundesliga giants were unwilling to pay that - he currently only has an Estimated Transfer Value (ETV) of €39.7m.
Nicolas Jackson
© IMAGO - Nicolas Jackson
Villa, on the other hand, could realistically pay that fee given the massive profit they just booked on Rogers. And the first domino could be about to fall, with Sky Sports reporting that Fenerbahce are leading the chase for Ollie Watkins.
If the England star were to be sold, Villa would desperately need to sign a new striker, with Jackson surely among the top options for the job. It appears to be a move that suits all parties. Well, almost all.
According to data analytics firm SciSports, Jackson has significantly better options than Villa. SciSports analyses several factors such as game time, development prospects and play style to calculate a Club Fit rating.
Villa clock in with a middling score of 67 because Jackson is believed to be a poor stylistic fit. Clubs like PSG, Barcelona, Man Utd and Inter would be better options for the striker.
Ultimately, though, it may be better for him to join a club like Villa where he would at least be guaranteed regular minutes - and you would trust Emery to get the best out of his former protégé.