As our list of 2026 NBA free agents shows, most of the restricted free agents in this year’s class have either re-signed with their incumbent teams or joined new clubs. We’ll learn later tonight whether the Nuggets will retain Spencer Jones by matching his two-year offer sheet or if he’ll join the Thunder, the team he signed with.
Only three RFAs remain unsigned, and they’re all prominent names: Jalen Duren (Pistons), Bennedict Mathurin (Clippers) and Peyton Watson (Nuggets).
As Bobby Marks of ESPN wrote on Saturday (via Twitter), if the Nuggets match Jones’ reported two-year, $12MM deal and re-sign Watson to a contract that starts at $23MM in 2026/27, their projected payroll would be $246MM, with an estimated luxury tax bill of $231MM.
According to Marks, Denver has paid a total of $53MM in tax penalties since 2002/03.
Carrying $246MM in payroll would also mean the Nuggets would be operating over the second tax apron ($221.7MM), which holds certain roster-building restrictions. But that $231MM tax bill would almost certainly be of much greater concern to ownership.
Tony Jones of The Athletic reported on July 17 that the Nuggets believe they’re in a good spot to retain Watson, whom they value “significantly,” and are comfortable letting the restricted free agency process play out. As we saw in 2025, when four of the top restricted free agents of the summer remained unsigned until September, that process can drag on if no team with cap room is prepared to put an offer sheet on the table.
The Bucks, Clippers, and Hawks are among the rival suitors with interest in the 23-year-old, as previously reported. However, since each of those three teams is operating over the cap, a sign-and-trade deal would almost certainly be necessary for one of them to land Watson.
One of those reports about Watson suggested the Clippers were prioritizing him over Mathurin, but that the Nuggets had a steep asking price in sign-and-trade talks, which could lead Los Angeles to turn its attention to re-signing Mathurin. The former sixth overall pick hasn’t been linked to any rival teams as far as we’ve seen.
Mathurin’s situation may not be resolved until the NBA announces the results of its investigation into the Clippers for allegedly circumventing the salary cap through a no-show endorsement deal with Kawhi Leonard. The trade sending the two-time Finals MVP back to Toronto is also on hold until that probe concludes.
Duren, who came in at No. 1 on our list of the top 50 free agents, met with the Lakers and Kings about sign-and-trade possibilities shortly after free agency began. But the Lakers acquired Walker Kessler in a sign-and-trade with Utah, and Detroit reportedly isn’t interested in Kings big man Domantas Sabonis — or any other sign-and-trade concepts.
Duren doesn’t turn 23 years old until November and is coming off a season in which he earned his first All-Star berth, finished second in Most Improved Player voting, and was named to the All-NBA third team after proving to be the second-best player on a 60-win club. That All-NBA spot made Duren eligible for a maximum-salary contract that starts at 30% of the salary cap instead of 25%.
But reports have suggested the Pistons have not yet offered Duren a 25% max deal, let alone 30%, and no rival team currently has the cap room necessary to sign Duren to a max offer sheet. That, combined with his struggles in the playoffs in a relatively small sample size, seems to have limited his leverage in contract talks with Detroit.
Duren’s primary leverage is the threat of signing his $9.6MM qualifying offer to become an unrestricted free agent next year. That would be risky, since he’d be turning down what’s likely a highly lucrative deal from Detroit, but if he’s really unhappy with how the negotiations play out, it’s still an option.
For what it’s worth, when The Athletic polled 13 executives from rival teams, none viewed a 25% max deal covering four or five seasons as being “fair” value for Duren. Of course, those results would look much different if 13 agents had been asked instead of team employees.