The NBA off-season has hit a standstill now that LeBron James decided to take his talents to the City of Brotherly Love (no, I am unmoved by Mario Hezonja's return to the league).
It won't stay this way for long, though.
All of the major dominos have all fallen, but there are still valuable players sitting in the modern-NBA purgatory known as restricted free agency: an archaic team-building mechanism that has devolved into agents and franchises getting into drawn-out standoffs that usually wind up with players taking major concessions on short-term deals just so they can suit up next season. As a staunch "pay the players" guy, this author believes restricted free agency should get overhauled (or abolished) when the next CBA gets negotiated.
Players like Jalen Duren, Bennedict Mathurin, and Peyton Watson are all without a team right now because the franchises that own their free agency rights either haven't come to the negotiating table with a tantalizing-enough offer, or they're waiting for the right sign-and-trade scenario to get faxed over.
Which brings us to the Charlotte Hornets.
On a Sunday evening episode of the Game Theory Podcast, Sam Vecenie posited the idea of Charlotte throwing their hat into the Peyton Watson ring. Vecenie believes that executing a sign-and-trade to bring the talented forward to Charlotte could be a mutually beneficial move for both the Hornets and Nuggets.
For Denver, acquiring a package of players (Vecenie proposed Liam McNeeley and Tre Mann) and picks (a future first, Miami's 2027 first would be the most likely in my opinion, and a boatload of seconds) would allow the Nuggets to duck the second apron and match the outstanding offer sheet for Spencer Jones. McNeeley's sweet-shooting, connective skill set would mesh nicely with Nikola Jokic, and Denver would have added avenues to acquire talent in-season with more picks in tow and the punitive restrictions of the second apron off their back.
Charlotte, on the other hand, would have a chance to lock-in a young, talented forward on an affordable contract and further alleviate their roster crunch.
Watson just had the best season of his young career, averaging 14.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.1 assists on blistering 49/41/73 shooting splits. If his newfould acumen from deep is sustainable, Watson has a sky-high ceiling that will fit nicely around whoever becomes Charlotte's long-term offensive engine.
Defensively, Watson isn't a true point-of-attack stopper, but he does have elite physical tools (he stands 6'8" with a +4 wingspan) that allows him to be a roving chaos agent who racks up deflections and blocked shots.
In Watson's breakout that spanned from New Year's Eve to early February before he got injured, Denver put the ball in his hands more frequently and let him create some offense off-the-bounce. He isn't a stellar space creator, but Watson is a long-strider who moves smoothly through space, to get to his shot. He's not a particularly physical player, but Watson doesn't mind getting shots up through contact.
Most of his shot attempts last season came within 14 feet of the rim -- an area where Charlotte projects to struggle next season.
Still only 23-years-old, Watson is an ascending forward who could very well outplay the contract he's slated to sign this offseason. If he seeks out a deal worth $20-25M/year, the Hornets could absorb his contract into the trade exception created in the LaMelo Ball deal and save themselves a chunk of it to acquire a veteran point guard before the offseason ends.
There is some risk involved here for Charlotte. Watson doesn't have a long track record of success, and it's equally as likely that he underperforms his deal than he does overperform it. Most of his impact on Denver's success in his 46 games played came from his red-hot form from deep - there's a real worry that he doesn't bring enough ancillary skills to be a winning player in a complimentary role.
However, players with Watson's upside rarely hit the market at his age, so in my opinion it is a swing worth taking for Charlotte. The Hornets' books are relatively clean going forward, pending Brandon Miller's upcoming rookie extension, and a gamble on Watson's talent on a contract worth ~$20M/year is a good one.
If Charlotte pulls this off and makes a move for Dennis Schroder (two MAJOR ifs, obviously), they would be looking at an opening night rotation of:
Point Guard: Coby White / Dennis Schroder / Christian Anderson
Shooting Guard: Brandon Miller / Grayson Allen / Sion James
Small Forward: Kon Knueppel / Peyton Watson / Royce O'Neale
Power Forward: Naz Reid / Grant Williams / Pat Connaughton
Center: Moussa Diabate / Ryan Kalkbrenner / Hannes Steinbach
Pretty good if you ask me. Tons of shooting and lineup flexibility that Charlotte's creative coaching staff could really maximize over an 82-game regular season.
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