There is not a lot of optimism about the Orlando Magic after this offseason.
The team dealt with injuries last year but finished in the Play-In Tournament for the second straight year. They lost in the first round for the third straight year.
Their young stars, though both are younger than 25, are no longer the next big thing. They are players who have to answer where they belong in the bigger tapestry of the NBA and whether they deserve to be called stars to begin with.
This is still a young Magic team. But it has enough experience now that they should have proven something. Their history burdens this group.
It should not be a surprise that most of the predictors and power rankings have the Magic virtually in the same spot they were last year, even acknowledging that health was a big factor for this team last year. Orlando may be staring at another season trying to survive the Play-In Tournament.
It is not a hopeless situation. But knowing the financial ramifications staring down the team, it is not an encouraging place to be.
Orlando, at the payroll the team is paying, needs to be more than a Play-In team. Is there even a chance for that?
Of course, there is. The Magic have a lot of talent. The potential they had last year has not gone away. And they rarely saw that talent together.
There is some logic to the Magic's argument. And that is among the reasons they have for hope this season.
The starting lineup argument
Few in the national media are talking about the Orlando Magic right now.
They had a fairly quiet offseason, only adding Nikola Vucevic to the roster on a minimum contract and re-signing Jevon Carter and Jonathan Isaac to minimum contracts. That is not enough to move the needle for national conversation.
If this is the same team, why should anyone project them to finish anywhere different than the 7- or 8-seed again?
This ignores that injuries were a huge factor in last season. Even with Franz Wagner playing only 34 games, the Magic still won 45 games and were one game from tying for the 5-seed in the East. There is a lot of meat on the bone.
Internally, this was an argument the Magic made. Publicly, Jeff Weltman said the team had one of the best starting lineups in the league. It just did not play enough together.
Orlando's central belief is if the team can be healthy, it has a team that can compete at the top of the East. This is something everyone can at least buy some portion of.
That is something someone can grab hold of.
"There is a really good team in there," Nekias Duncan said on The Dunker Spot Podcast. "We just saw flashes of it last year. As you alluded into the playoffs, they got nasty with the Detroit Pistons. If you tell me there is going to be a healthier Jalen Suggs, a healthier Franz Wagner, a healthier Paolo Banchero, to your point Steve, if Sean Sweeney is able to tap into more of the defense and, bouncing off of something Franz Wagner alluded to, just having a different voice in the room might be enough to make things feel differently in Orlando. I am once again going to be pretty high. They have real quality pieces."
Indeed, the Magic's starting lineup played only 182 minutes together in the regular season. They tallied a +11.6 net rating with a 117.3 offensive rating and 105.7 defensive rating. That is certainly elite on defense and acceptable on offense.
It was the ninth-best lineup by net rating in the league that played at least 150 minutes together. For reference, the ninth-most-used lineup last year was the Brooklyn Nets' starting lineup that logged 307 minutes together. That is more than double the time on the floor together.
In the Playoffs, the Magic's starting group played 61 minutes together with an astounding +14.7 net rating (115.5 offensive rating/100.8 defensive rating). That was against the top-seeded, 60-win Detroit Pistons.
Not everyone believes in this group. Greg Swartz of Bleacher Report ranked the Magic with the 18th-best starting lineup in the league. There were no numbers used to back that ranking up, but it speaks to how little faith there is in the thing the Magic have the most faith in.
Orlando could rightfully say they would have won the series if they had stayed healthy. And then who knows?
It will take more than a good starting lineup to achieve their goals this season.
Improving the bench?
A starting lineup alone does not win in a season.
Jeff Weltman has often argued that the Playoffs become about your best five against the other team's best five. Having a good starting lineup matters. But depth matters too.
Few teams get through an entire season with their full team healthy for 82 games. Players miss time. And every team needs a bench player to step up in a major way -- like Jamal Cain did in Game 4.
Theoretically, the team's health would boost the bench with Anthony Black playing off the bench and better balance in their lineups. Nikola Vucevic is a solid addition to the bench. There is a boost in this roster coming off the bench.
Many of the questions for Sean Sweeney will settle on how he finds the right combinations with his lineups and rotations. It will be about how he handles playing rotations and maintains both offensive and defensive pressure.
But it is important that he has a good base to build with. And the Magic do have a strong starting lineup to begin with. That is at least a place to start.
And it is a place for hope for a Magic team that has a long battle ahead to climb the Eastern Conference standings.
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