The NBA offseason continues to slow down and come to a close, especially after the decision by LeBron James to come back to the Eastern Conference and play for the Philadelphia 76ers. Now, there are a number of restricted free agents and one unrestricted free agent (Jonathan Kuminga) that will be under the spotlight.
The team that might have the most to say with these decisions are the Atlanta Hawks.
Atlanta has a roster crunch it needs to solve, no matter what happens with Kuminga, who could be back with the Hawks or dealt somewhere (Lakers, Cavs, Bucks, or Clippers?) in a sign-and-trade that could bring back more players to the Hawks.
Despite all of that, the Hawks continue to be mentioned for Nuggets restricted free agent Peyton Watson. Over the past couple of weeks, Atlanta has been continuously mentioned as a suitor for Watson, including last night by ESPN's Shams Charania.
After the Nuggets matched the offer sheet for forward Spencer Jones and brought him back, Charania mentioned that the Nuggets are now going to finalize bringing back Watson, while Atlanta, Milwaukee, and the Los Angeles Clippers continue to pursue him.
By matching Jones' sheet, the Nuggets face a $32 million increase in current luxury taxes ($36M to $68M) and enter the second apron. They are deep in tax bills but could shed money via trades in season.
Next Denver order of business: Navigate retaining RFA Peyton Watson while… https://t.co/N5arhPRTjM
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) July 27, 2026
More Difficult Path Now
Feb 3, 2026; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Peyton Watson (8) tries to drive past Detroit Pistons guard Daniss Jenkins (24) in the fourth quarter at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
So how does the Jones re-signing make acquiring Watson tougher?
With Jones back on the Nuggets, even at a low number, it puts Denver into the second apron, meaning that they cannot take players back in a sign-and-trade so long as they remain in the second apron. Could they make another transaction to get under there? Yes, but it does not appear likely that Denver is going to be able to to that.
Restricted free agency can drag on, and it is going to be tough for any team to be able to pull this off, especially now. The Clippers have the most financial freedom to obtain Watson on the kind of contract that he wants without having to do a sign-and-trade. However, the impending Kawhi Leonard trade might put anything Clippers-related on hold.
The fact that the Hawks are still mentioned as a suitor shows that they are serious about the prospect of adding Watson. That does not change the fact that this is going to be a very tough transaction to pull off because Watson is a restricted free agent and Denver is going to want a substantial offer in return.
I don't think that Watson is going to be worth that price.
Watson is the kind of two-way wing that every team dreams of having, but it is fair to wonder if his production last season was a fluke or not. I don't think that Watson is a premier defender on the perimeter, and last season was the only one of his career where he hit a high percentage of threes at any sort of volume.
To put a positive spin on that, though, is that Watson fits the Hawks' age timeline, and Atlanta could be getting a player before he has a major breakout. We could look back at Watson's restricted free agency and wonder how he only got paid $20 million in annual contract value.
The most likely scenario for the Hawks to land Watson would see them send 2-3 players to a third, possibly even fourth, team, and then send draft capital to the Nuggets. Acquiring Watson alone would put the Hawks at 18 roster spots and they would need to move three players to get to the regular season limit of 15.
Last night, NBA insider Marc Stein reported that Watson is pondering playing on the $6.5 million qualifying offer next season, which would make him an unrestricted free agent next summer:
"League sources say Watson, like Detroit's Jalen Duren, has been weighing the unappealing prospect of playing out the 2026-27 season on a qualifying offer with the intent to become an unrestricted free agent next summer. Actually doing so, mind you, means leaving millions on the table."
The Hawks interest in Watson makes sense and nothing in the NBA is impossible, but I think it is unlikely he plays anywhere other than Denver next season.
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