Arsenal's interest in signing Vinicius Junior from Real Madrid during this summer transfer window depends on multiple other deals being negotiated across Europe
09:01, 28 Jul 2026Updated 09:02, 28 Jul 2026
The fee Arsenal face paying for Vinicius Junior appears set to depend on ongoing transfer negotiations for Bradley Barcola and Yan Diomande.
Paris Saint-Germain are said to be demanding around £140million for the France international, who the Gunners have scouted. RB Leipzig reportedly want over £100million for the Ivory Coast international, and football.london understands the Gunners have enquired about Diomande earlier this summer.
The current benchmark appears to be Morgan Rogers after Chelsea agreed a £117million deal with Aston Villa. In that instance, Arsenal valued the England international at around £80million, almost £40million short of what the Blues committed to.
Given what those four players (including Vinicius) have achieved in the game, Madrid may expect a higher fee from Arsenal. It is still less than two years since the Brazil international finished as runner-up to Rodri in the Ballon d'Or voting.
Transfermarkt estimate his market value at £120million. That has fallen some £50million from a high of £170million only 18 months ago.
That is potentially performance-related, dropping to 16th, a place below Viktor Gyokeres after his goalscoring exploits for Sporting, in the annual awards ranking last September. It appears more likely given that his contract is already into its final 12 months.
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For comparison, the CIES Football Observatory's statistical model estimates Vinicius' transfer value this summer at around £72million. That is barely above Noni Madueke's as an Arsenal example.
However, he is the only player in their top 100 whose contract expires next summer. After being contacted by football.london, they clarified that Barcola and Vinicius have a "fair" price of just under £85million.
They note their respective contract situations: the Frenchman has just one more year left on his PSG contract. Barcola, being two years younger than his counterpart and not necessarily in his club's best starting line-up, is also a factor.
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Madrid also have a history of record-breaking spending on players in the final year of their existing deal. They spent £130million to sign Eden Hazard from Chelsea when in the same situation seven years ago.
It is not a stretch to expect a similar amount in return for Vinicius, who is two years younger than the Belgian was when he moved.
Considering all the comparisons across the years, as well as this summer, it appears Arsenal could have to pay around £150million for Vinicius.
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football.london has been told by sources that the club are financially willing to make a move for the Brazilian, if possible, with his profile leading them to calculate his value very differently from that of other players.
AS have reported that Vinicius is asking for around £17million net per season from Madrid if he is to stay. However, the Spanish sports newspaper claims: "His intention is to renew his contract, and he will make it easy. And Real Madrid's intention is to renew his contract."