Real Madrid and Vinicius Junior are due to hold talks this summer after the Brazil international entered the final 12 months of his contract, attracting transfer interest from Arsenal
11:11, 28 Jul 2026
Arsenal target Vinicius Junior's estimated transfer market value has dropped around £25million over the last year as contract talks with Real Madrid have yet to yield an agreement.
football.london have recieved confirmation from sources that Arsenal's interest in the Brazil international is very real. There is understood to be financial willingness from the club to make it happen if possible.
The International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES) Football Observatory have exclusively told football.london that Vinicius now has a "fair" price of just under £85million. According to the research group, that could go up when considering ongoing inflation, but not by much more.
Last summer, they estimated that Vinicius had the seventh-highest transfer value in the world at £111million. Erling Haaland, Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Jamal Musiala, Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe were the only players above him back then.
Twelve months on, the Brazil international is down at 33rd, barely above Viktor Gyokeres and William Saliba. The main difference during that time is that the years left on his contract have halved, from two to one.
Vinicius is the only player in their top 100 who has less than 12 months left on their deal. When it was published earlier this summer, there were just four players with less than two years left on their current terms.
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Almost two months later, one of those, Dominik Szoboszlai, has renewed his contract with Liverpool. Two more, Aurelien Tchouameni and Jeremy Doku, are reported to have agreements with Madrid and Manchester City, respectively, on extensions.
That leaves just Bradley Barcola, a player whom Arsenal have scouted. There is understood to be an existing interest in the France international.
The CIES Football Observatory also exclusively told football.london that Paris Saint-Germain's winger, like Vinicius, has an estimated value just under €100million. They acknowledged the difference in their current contract lengths, while also noting that Barcola is two years younger than the Brazilian.
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Another factor in their statistical model is that, as with France at this summer's World Cup, the forward is not a guaranteed starter for PSG. He notably featured only as a substitute in the Champions League final.
His minutes are unlikely to improve in the French capital this season after reports that he will not sign a new contract with the club. There are suggestions that Luis Enrique will not even play him if a move does not materialise because he only wants to work with committed players.
Vinicius is not at that stage with Madrid just yet, and talks are due to take place with the Brazilian's representatives this week before their client begins pre-season training. He was scheduled to return to their complex in Valdebebas on Monday, but was not present alongside his team-mates for their sessions with Jose Mourinho.