Sky Sports data shows why Chelsea should think twice over Nicolas Jackson sale
Nicolas Jackson’s Chelsea future remains uncertain as Aston Villa and Tottenham consider moves, but new data underlines why selling the striker could still come back to haunt the Blues.
Jackson returned to Stamford Bridge after scoring 11 times during his loan spell at Bayern Munich last season. Chelsea now have significantly more competition in attack, which has opened the door to a permanent departure.
Tottenham are among those watching developments. ReadChelsea reported on Tuesday that Spurs had added Jackson to their shortlist, with Chelsea reportedly valuing the Senegal international at around £65million.
Yet a new statistical breakdown suggests focusing solely on Jackson’s missed chances risks overlooking what makes him such an unusual striker.
Nicolas Jackson numbers remain among Premier League elite
Jackson’s finishing has understandably attracted criticism.
He converted only 18 of his 61 big chances during his two Premier League seasons with Chelsea. That is not clinical enough for a striker expected to lead a team challenging for major trophies.
However, Sky Sports’ detailed analysis of Jackson’s underlying numbers reveals something far more encouraging.
Among players to have completed at least 5,000 Premier League minutes since the beginning of the decade, only Erling Haaland has recorded a higher non-penalty expected-goals figure per 90 minutes.
Jackson consistently gets himself into elite scoring positions. Improving his finishing even moderately could therefore transform his output.
His season in Germany offered more evidence. Jackson scored 11 goals in all competitions despite starting only 15 matches, while his 0.72 open-play Bundesliga goals per 90 was behind only Harry Kane’s 0.79.
Chelsea have a difficult Nicolas Jackson decision
Chelsea can afford to consider offers because Xabi Alonso has several alternatives.
João Pedro and Liam Delap remain available, Emmanuel Emegha has arrived and Danny Welbeck provides another experienced option. ReadChelsea covered Welbeck’s arrival and the qualities Moises Caicedo believes he adds.
There is also little contractual pressure to sell.
Chelsea handed Jackson a new deal running until 2033, meaning they can demand a significant fee rather than accepting a reduced offer simply to move him on.
Villa provide an intriguing destination because Unai Emery knows Jackson extremely well from Villarreal. Jackson has previously credited Emery with teaching him how to move intelligently without the ball.
Yet Sky Sports notes that Villa already have Alejandro Garnacho on loan from Chelsea, preventing another Chelsea loan, while further business between the clubs shortly after Morgan Rogers’ £117m move could create additional UEFA accounting complications.
Tottenham present a different risk.
Selling a 25-year-old striker with Jackson’s underlying numbers to a direct Premier League rival could look very different if another coach improves his finishing.
Chelsea do not necessarily need to keep him.
But the numbers suggest they should be very sure before deciding they have seen everything Jackson can become.
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