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New York Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart shares his relationship with head coach John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Matt Nagy ahead of the 2026 NFL season.
Looking for a cheat code to winning your fantasy league? One of the best tricks of the trade is identifying the year's top breakout candidates -- players with massive potential whose draft cost does not yet reflect that upside. And among the best tricks to find those players? Finding the flecks of statistical gold in otherwise-quiet starts to careers. Using the assets informed by Next Gen Stats and available on NFL Pro, I've mined several of those nuggets and collected 14 of the best candidates for a 2026 breakout.
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It was a somewhat-spotty rookie season for Dart, who took the starting reins in Week 4, immediately lost his WR1, later lost his RB1 and missed two and a half games in November following a concussion. Even still, Dart averaged 20.13 fantasy points per game in his 12 starts. Over the full season, that figure would have made him the QB4. In 2026, he gets RB Cam Skattebo and WR Malik Nabers back from injury, while also benefiting from the addition of TE Isaiah Likely and improved personnel on the offensive line. He's one of the most dangerous rushing quarterbacks in the league -- hitting 487 yards and nine touchdowns in those 12 starts -- and was impressive as a passer in Year 1 (with room to grow). With better injury luck and solid command of a new offense, Dart has the rare potential to jump into the elite fantasy ranks at quarterback.
Unlike Jaxson Dart, No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward was basically unplayable for fantasy last season ... but there are reasons for optimism in 2026. According to NFL Pro, his passer rating, touchdown rate, completion rate, EPA/dropback and several other metrics jumped significantly after the Week 10 bye. During that closing stretch, Ward threw 10 touchdown passes and just one interception, while nearly doubling his fantasy points per pass attempt (from 0.24 to 0.46).
Then, this offseason, Tennessee massively upgraded Ward's weaponry. Instead of having Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike atop the WR depth chart, Ward will be looking to fourth overall pick Carnell Tate and high-volume safety blanket Wan'Dale Robinson. That improvement should not be overlooked. Historically, quarterbacks drafted first overall have seen a boost in fantasy output in Year 2 -- it's just a question of how significant that boost will be for Ward.
From Week 2 through Week 7 of Skattebo's rookie season, while he was the feature back and healthy, he scored the sixth-most fantasy points at the position, averaging 19.1 per game. He did so despite averaging just 0.5 yards before contact per carry during this span, amazingly averaging 3.7 yards after contact per carry and forcing a missed tackle on 29.2% of his carries, per NFL Pro. The good news: New head coach John Harbaugh has already reshaped the run game in front of Skattebo with the selection of offensive lineman Francis Mauigoa and the acquisition of fullback Patrick Ricard (among other moves).
There are hurdles to the second-year back's breakout: the injury risk of Skattebo's violent running style and, to a lesser degree, the presence of Tyrone Tracy Jr. in the backfield. But with good health and an improved offense, Skattebo has the ultimate upside to contend for RB1 overall.
Mason cracked last year's fantasy breakouts article, written by my friend Michael F. Florio, but didn't quite deliver in 2025. Regardless, I'm going back to the well. Among 44 running backs with 200-plus carries over the last two years, Mason's 33.9% forced missed tackle rate and 14.4% explosive run rate are both No. 1, per NFL Pro. Aaron Jones turns 32 years old in December and has pretty clearly started the veteran decline. And in Mason's four starts during Jones' early-season absence in 2025, the younger back averaged 14.5 fantasy points per game with 282 rushing yards and four touchdowns.
This breakout call will ultimately require Kevin O'Connell to elevate Mason over Jones. But given Mason's production when he has gotten a chance in the past, I think there's a world where that swap happens early and Mason becomes a reliable RB2.
The "breakout bar" is pretty low for Brooks, considering he has just 12 career touches for 45 yards and has yet to score his first NFL touchdown. The former Texas Longhorn has spent most of the last couple years recovering from multiple ACL tears, but head coach Dave Canales recently said Brooks "looks like the guy that I remember" and feels great. If that's true, it's not hard to project Brooks to take control of the Carolina backfield -- and arguably the entire offense. He was drafted 46th overall two years ago with three-down, RB1 upside in mind. Now, he finally has a chance to fulfill that projection with a healthy 2026 (knock on wood).
Canales, OC Brad Idzik and QB Bryce Young all need players to step up alongside WR Tetairoa McMillan in this offense. If Brooks can do so in Year 3, he'll prove to be an excellent fantasy value, given how late he's currently coming off the draft board
In 2025, 49 running backs topped 100 carries. According to NFL Pro, Judkins earned 93.3% of his rushing yards after contact, the highest rate among all 49 of those RBs. That can mean a few things -- it's an oft-oversimplified stat -- but Cleveland's offensive line was terrible, so we can lay a lot of the blame at that group's feet. The Browns will ostensibly have four new OL starters in 2026, as well as improved receiving weapons on the outside and (hopefully) more consistent QB play.
Like Jonathon Brooks, Judkins was drafted early on Day 2 for a reason: He logged 1,200-plus scrimmage yards and 16-plus touchdowns each of his three college seasons and has the frame and skill set to be a three-down RB1 in the NFL. Realistically, the second-year pro's ceiling is only limited by Cleveland's offense -- if the unit can stabilize in 2026, Judkins could be elite.
After the Jaguars' Week 8 bye last season, Washington was a revelation. If you took his production from the final nine regular-season games plus the Wild Card Round and projected it over a full season, you'd be looking at 82 catches for 1,270 yards and nine touchdowns. That would have made him the WR7 in 2025. And while Travis Hunter was absent for those games, Jakobi Meyers was acquired to fill his shoes. Per NFL Pro, when Washington, Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr. were all on the field together after Week 8, Washington saw a 29.4% target rate and averaged an elite 3.2 yards per route run.
Yes, the Jacksonville receiver room is crowded this season. But Washington separated from the crowd late last year. If he maintains that high level of play, he should compete with BTJ at the top of the Jacksonville pecking order.
Fresh off a second straight Pro Bowls campaign -- and a $140 million contract extension -- you may question whether Flowers still has room for a breakout. I believe he does. Flowers scored 20-plus fantasy points four times in 2025 -- including three times after Week 13 -- but he scored fewer than 16 points in every other outing and logged 13 or fewer points nine times. Additionally, he notched just five receiving touchdowns in 2025 and has never topped that total in a season.
Consequently, a breakout for Flowers would mean finding the end zone more often and raising his weekly floor to true WR1 heights. That could put him in the truly elite tier at the position, which is more feasible than you might think. Flowers ranked third in yards per route run among players with 300-plus routes last year, per NFL Pro, ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown and behind only Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
The eighth overall pick in last year's draft took home Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, though his 70 catches, 1,014 yards and seven scores were "only" good enough for 211.4 fantasy points and a WR15 finish in PPR. But consider other top-10 draft picks of the recent past who posted similar numbers as rookies: Amari Cooper, A.J. Green, Julio Jones. It may sound hyperbolic, but that's the archetype for McMillan.
The Panthers still haven't assembled a reliable receiving corps beyond McMillan, despite their best draft efforts, so his 122 targets from 2025 are likely the floor in 2026. The biggest stepping stone to a breakout is going to be Bryce Young's quarterback play. He's improved year by year in passer rating, completion percentage, success rate, EPA/dropback and several other metrics, per NFL Pro, so the trajectory suggests he could improve once again. If he does, McMillan will have high-end upside as his No. 1 target.
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Carolina Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan lands at number 87 on the Top 100 Players list of 2026.
This isn't the first time I've written about Downs -- and it won't be the last. He was my top draft value at wide receiver in a piece published last month. Over the last two seasons, Downs has a 27.6% target rate and a 66.7% catch rate. Here's the full list of wideouts to hit both those thresholds since 2024, per NFL Pro (min. 150 targets): Puka Nacua, Ja'Marr Chase, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown ... and Josh Downs. Those are the top four wide receivers in fantasy ADP entering 2026 ... and Josh Downs. You see what I'm getting at here?
With Michael Pittman Jr. now in Pittsburgh, Downs should see a significant increase in snaps and routes. Given his per-route efficiency, he's poised to see a healthy boost in targets and catches, which should translate to a major PPR breakout.
Similarly to Parker Washington, Wilson already started breaking out over the second half of his third season. The impetus was a midseason injury to Marvin Harrison Jr., as Wilson absolutely dominated with Harrison off the field. Specifically, in the five games Harrison missed, Wilson averaged an absurd 13.6 targets, 9.2 receptions and 119.6 receiving yards per game, with four total touchdowns. In fantasy terms, that equals an average of 26 points per game.
On the one hand, Wilson is very unlikely to post those numbers with Harrison healthy in 2026. On the other hand, NFL receivers don't typically produce at that level and then fade back into obscurity, or even into a WR2 role. As long as Wilson continues posting efficient numbers -- like his 4.7% catch rate over expected in 2025 -- he'll demand usage that paves the path for a full-season breakout in Arizona.
I've only included one rookie in this article. Typically, a "breakout candidate" kind of requires the player having an existing NFL baseline, but Tyson cracks the list anyway. Despite his selection at eighth overall and his place atop many draft analysts' WR prospect rankings, the Saints rookie is going in the ninth round as the WR35 in ADP.
Over the last decade, six wideouts have been taken in the top eight picks of the draft and played in 12-plus games in Year 1: Tetairoa McMillan, Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Drake London, Ja'Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle. Those guys averaged 14.3 fantasy points per game as rookies, with a minimum of 10.3 FPPG (by London, who finished as the WR31 overall in 2022). 14.3 points per game would have been good for WR14 last year. On the merits of his prospect profile, the historical trendline and the situation in New Orleans, Tyson is a strong bet to outperform his draft cost and potentially hit high-end WR2 status right out the gate.
Honestly, it feels like Likely has flown under the fantasy radar since signing with the Giants in March. Back in February, I highlighted him as one of the "boom or bust" free agents of this offseason, and the prospective "boom" gained traction after John Harbaugh brought him along to New York. As I mentioned in that previous article, George Kittle is the only tight end to rank higher than Likely in all three of the following categories since 2022: catches, yards per catch and touchdowns. Likely's career marks in yards per target (8.1) and average yards after catch (5.9) are both borderline elite.
Likely flashed for fantasy when Mark Andrews missed time in Baltimore, and he should now be the No. 1 tight end for Jaxson Dart and the Giants. It's the perfect recipe for a breakout: excellence in limited opportunities, now translated to theoretically larger volume.
As I admitted when highlighting Okonkwo in my tight end values piece, I've been on his breakout train for a couple years now. Unfortunately, the Titans' lackluster passing game kept that train in the station ... but Okonkwo has escaped Nashville and made his way to Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. He brings an explosive skill set with rare YAC ability to an offense with clear needs for versatility and volume -- even with the recent addition of 32-year-old WR Stefon Diggs, Okonkwo should compete to be a top target for Daniels behind Terry McLaurin.
The best part about betting on the Okonkwo breakout for fantasy? It costs next to nothing, as Okonkwo is going essentially undrafted. You can slot him onto your bench with your final pick, and if the breakout occurs, you'll have a top tight end for free.