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"GMFB" reacts to Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs' new three-year deal making him the highest paid RB.
Among the many rules of fantasy football -- the "do's and don'ts," if you will -- there are two tips that set the baseline for all the rest.
Have a plan ... but don’t overplan.
It’s a nuanced tightrope to walk -- one that will be explained in detail when my annual Do’s and Don’ts article drops later this month. Ultimately, it means setting expectations and strategies to a certain degree, while being prepared to pivot when your expectations explode and your strategies are sunk. Which will happen.
To lay the foundation for this draft plan, it helps to start at the top with your first two picks. Your selections in the first and second rounds will heavily dictate how the rest of your draft proceeds, so nailing those picks matters juuuust a little bit more.
Unsure where to go with those picks? That’s why I’m here. Below, I’ve supplied the ideal (realistic) duo for each draft slot in a 12-team league. There are no guarantees here (unless you have the 1.01), but this should be a helpful rubric. And if one of your guys gets sniped, remember: PIVOT! Eyeball the players slotted right around your pick, and make a sensible swap.
Alright, let’s get into this (imaginary) draft. And good luck in your real one!
NOTES:
This breakdown is based off my own rankings, within the context of average draft position (ADP) data from ESPN.
All analysis defaults to a point per reception (PPR) scoring format.
Picking 1st
You can't go wrong with either of the league's top running backs in Gibbs and Bijan Robinson. For me, touchdowns are what breaks the tie: While sharing backfield touches with David Montgomery, Gibbs led the NFL with 38 total scores over the last two years. Montgomery scored 20 TDs in that time span, but he was traded to Houston this offseason, making Gibbs Detroit's bell-cow back in 2026. It also doesn’t hurt that Gibbs is a PPR stud -- with at least 52 catches in all three of his NFL seasons -- and a big play waiting to happen. According to NFL Pro, no qualified running back hit 20-plus miles per hour more often than Gibbs in 2025, and he logged the fastest (22.34 mph), second-fastest (22.23) and third-fastest (22.17) max speeds on rushes last season. The league's highest-paid RB is a do-it-all threat with fantasy-breaking potential and the goods to be a league-winner. Relatively easy 1.01 in 2026.
I’d strongly consider Nabers’ teammate Cam Skattebo here, and if you’re feeling dangerous, you could take both on this turn. But if that prospect feels a little too risky -- justifiably so -- I’d lean Nabers by a hair. He was No. 4 in my league-winners piece, and the only reason he's available at the back of the second round is the 2025 ACL injury.
Nabers avoided the PUP list to start training camp and appears to be on track for the season-opener against the Cowboys -- who he tagged for 37.7 fantasy points in Week 2 last year, by the way. As the clear No. 1 option for Big Blue, he has the upside to lead the NFL in targets and catches, if healthy. And with the recovery discount baked in, you’re getting a steal here and pairing two of my favorite picks to finish atop their respective positions in 2026.
Picking 2nd
Robinson just signed a three-year contract extension worth up to $75 million with Atlanta, securing his spot as one of the position’s and the league’s top stars. This case could not be more clear in terms of fantasy: Robinson finished as the RB3 overall in 2024 and the RB2 overall in 2025. His 712.5 PPR fantasy points over that span trail only Gibbs at running back and Josh Allen and Ja'Marr Chase elsewhere. Over those two seasons, the two-time Pro Bowler leads all running backs with 179 missed tackles forced and 1,416 yards after the catch, per NFL Pro. As mentioned, Gibbs has the edge because of TD upside, but you’re getting a 1.01-worthy player here.
Could I interest you in stacking a top-two pick in your fantasy draft with a top-three pick in the NFL draft? The Cardinals surprised some analysts with the Love selection in April, but the pick comes with a very clear declaration: Love is going to be Arizona's featured back, despite showing up as RB2 in recent depth charts. Each of the previous three running backs taken this high -- Saquon Barkley, Trent Richardson and Reggie Bush -- scored 250-plus fantasy points as a rookie. That 250-point threshold would have been good for RB11 last year and RB12 in 2024, so having Love as my RB12 feels fair. The one caveat: I do have Love lower than consensus, primarily due to concerns with Arizona's offense and the presence of veterans Tyler Allgeier and James Conner. That means Love may be off the board before this pick. If he’s not, taking him here arguably locks up the top RB room in your league.
Picking 3rd
After Nacua finished last season as the WR1 overall and the second-highest scorer in fantasy, this is another selection that doesn’t require much explanation. He led the league with 129 receptions, logged 1,715 receiving yards and scored 10 touchdowns amid Matthew Stafford’s MVP campaign. His career mark of 3.2 yards per route run isn’t just exceptional, it’s the best by any qualified receiver in Next Gen Stats history -- ahead of Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Julio Jones and all the rest. Even if Stafford regresses a bit in 2026, I’d expect the dip to come out of Davante Adams’ inflated fantasy total, not Nacua’s. He remains the top wideout in fantasy and is even a valid consideration at the 1.01 or 1.02 slots if you prefer receiver to running back.
It might be daunting taking two WRs, which means missing out on a running back until at least the third round, but we draft for value and can likely find a couple decent RBs with our next few picks. So in this case, we'll snag one of the last tried-and-true WR1s available in London, assuming he’s still available here in the late second. Notably, his ADP of 2.04 could make that tight. The Falcons' top receiver missed four games last season, but across a full 17 games, he was on pace for 96 catches, 1,302 yards and 10 touchdowns -- very consistent with his 2024 season. With Tua Tagovailoa tracking to be the Week 1 starter, London should maintain his volume and efficiency from the past few years, putting him in line for a WR1 finish.
Picking 4th
Last season’s top fantasy scorer wasn’t Gibbs, Robinson, Nacua or even Josh Allen. It was McCaffrey. In PPR, McCaffrey’s monstrous 102 receptions, 2,126 yards and 17 touchdowns catapulted him to 416.6 fantasy points, the most by a running back since McCaffrey himself in 2019 (471.2). In fact, the 2025 Comeback Player of the Year claims three of the highest fantasy finishes by a running back since he entered the league in 2017. In each of the last five seasons he has played at least 16 regular-season games, CMC has topped 350 fantasy points, and his lowest finish in those five seasons was RB2 overall. If McCaffrey stays healthy, he's a top-tier back. There’s some fair hesitation over his age (30 years old) and his 2025 touch count (413), but CMC is borderline inhuman, and I’m okay taking on the risks for the potential reward.
Pickens was a fantasy revelation in his first year with the Cowboys and very little has changed in Dallas entering 2026. Among wideouts with 75-plus targets, Pickens ranked seventh in yards per route run (2.4), fourth in yards per target (10.4), third in catch rate over expected (+9.6%) and first in yards after the catch over expected (+181) in 2025, per NFL Pro. He is a rare fusion of big-play ability and highly reliable volume, joining Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DeVonta Smith as the only others in that sample who averaged more than 11 air yards per target and caught more than two-thirds of their targets. Quietly, I like taking his teammate Javonte Williams here as well, but I think you can get Williams on the way back in Round 3. Using an understanding of ADP to our advantage, we can capitalize by snagging Pickens here and pairing him with a top-tier RB1.
Picking 5th
Last year's overall WR2 is right back where he belongs as the second receiver off the board in drafts. Many fantasy analysts, and current ADP, would have Ja'Marr Chase a spot ahead of JSN. That's completely valid opinion, and I have the two separated by just a few points in my full projections. It's also essentially a coin toss in drafts. One of the major reasons JSN gets the edge for me: His 3.7 yards per route run last season made him the only player close to Nacua's 3.8, as the next-closest by a qualified wideout was a full yard per route run fewer (Luther Burden at 2.7). Smith-Njigba is also the Seahawks' clear-cut target in the red zone, while Tee Higgins tends to vulture touchdowns from Chase. Still, this is picking nits. Both are ultra elite wide receivers who are worthy of a selection in the top five overall.
The recent payday for Flowers -- four years, $140 million -- only further reinforces what I’d stated late last month: He is one of the top values in fantasy drafts. Evidently, I’m putting my money -- or in this case, your money -- where my mouth is, by slotting Flowers at 20th overall despite his a ADP (39) that puts him in early in the fourth round. I've made his case as a value play, but here's a reminder: Flowers has been exceptional everywhere except the red zone, where I propose the arrival of new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle and a bounceback from Lamar Jackson could boost his production. As a result, Flowers is my WR8 overall. As much I’d like to wait a round (or two) to snag him, it just doesn’t make sense to take players I like less and risk losing out.
Picking 6th
Average draft position has Chase going two spots higher, so consider it a major win if he is available at No. 6 overall. As previously mentioned, Chase is an elite fantasy option after finishing as the WR1 overall in 2024 and the WR4 overall in 2025 (with one missed game). He’s topped 1,400 yards three times in five seasons and has 54 touchdowns in 78 games, which translates to approximately 12 TDs per season. According to NFL Pro, Chase also leads the NFL with 1,445 yards after catch and 422 yards after catch over expected since 2024. Chase is an untacklable target monster playing with arguably the league’s best passer in Joe Burrow. In a sense, Chase is the fifth of the five players you could justifiably take with No. 1 overall pick in your fantasy draft. Don’t overthink it.
Many analysts and “prevailing wisdom” will tell you to wait on quarterback ... or certainly to avoid taking one in the second round. Prevailing wisdom, however, doesn’t apply to Josh Allen. Despite his status as the first projected quarterback off the board, there's a reason that I had Allen in my QB values article. He has finished as the QB1 or QB2 overall in six straight seasons. In the last three seasons, the highest-drafted QB outside of Allen have been Patrick Mahomes in 2023, Mahomes in 2024 and Lamar Jackson in 2025. Allen outscored each those guys by 5-6 fantasy points per game in each of those seasons. I also believe the offsesason trade for veteran wideout DJ Moore could return Allen to the stud he was during his first four seasons with Stefon Diggs when he broke fantasy with 24.37 points per game from 2020-2022. At worst, Allen gives you a rare positional advantage. At best, he can single-handedly win you your league. (And pairing him with Ja’Marr Chase is an absurd proposition.)
Picking 7th
Another top fantasy pick who secured the bag in the past week, Taylor enters the 2026 season fresh off a two-year, $44 million contract extension. He also coming off his first full season since in four years, leading the NFL in rushing attempts and rushing touchdowns in 2025 -- just like he did in 2021. He also led the league in rushing yards gained after forcing a missed tackle (637), per NFL Pro. If you take Taylor’s entire career and project the game-by-game numbers to a full season, you would get 1,835 yards and 15 total touchdowns. With Taylor, however, the concern is his health as he missed six games in 2022, seven in 2023 and three in 2024. I believe you can trust Taylor to stay healthy in 2026 like he did last year, at least enough to take him here at the 1.07 and mitigate the risk with your next pick.
Speaking of mitigating your risk, we’re taking a second running back to pair with Taylor in this theoretical exercise. Jeanty is a high-floor RB1 with a legitimate RB1 overall ceiling making his available at 2.06 tenuous given his ADP of 2.02. Jeanty hitting that ceiling in 2026 will require significant improvement from the Raiders offense -- an offense that finished dead last in both points and yards last year, while suffering from a league-high 24.9% stuff rate on rushes, per NFL Pro. The signing of Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum and improved QB play this from offseason addition Kirk Cousins (or from Fernando Mendoza, the top pick of the 2026 NFL Draft, whenever he takes over) should help Jeanty's cause. With improved team offensive efficiency and more scoring chances, Jeanty has the talent to turn bell-cow volume into elite fantasy upside this year.
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Watch highlights from Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor's 2025 season.
Picking 8th
St. Brown currently might be the most consistent player in fantasy football. He has finished as fantasy's WR3 for three straight seasons, scoring between 316 and 330 fantasy points each year with 119, 115 and 117 catches and 10, 12 and 11 touchdowns in those three campagins, respectively. Jameson Williams breaking out? No worries. Ben Johnson leaving? No problem. St. Brown is bustproof and you know exactly what you’re getting when you draft him. He’s the 1.08 in ADP and the 1.08 in this exercise, no questions asked. Wham, bam, thank you ma’am.
In 2024, Bowers finished as the highest-scoring tight end in fantasy with 262.7 points. His 2025 encore was marred by injury and an atrocious Raiders offense, but this is a crucial case of avoiding recency bias for a more accurate projection. Bowers and Trey McBride are the only tight ends to log a target rate over 24% and a catch rate over 70% the past two seasons, per NFL Pro. Heading into 2026, McBride will be competing with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson for targets, while Bowers plays alongside Jalen Nailor, Jack Bech and Tre Tucker. Bowers has a legitimate shot to break McBride’s tight end target record (169) and potentially to hit double-digit touchdowns (he scored seven in 12 games last year). He’s a position-breaking fantasy star and my No. 1 league-winner.
Picking 9th
Achane has finished as the RB5 overall for two consecutive seasons. In my rankings and this draft exercise, he is ... the RB5 overall. Daring, I know. The case for Achane is pretty simple: He’s the entire Dolphins offense. Last year, Achane led the team in both carries (238) and catches (67). That was before the offseason departure of Jaylen Waddle (who led the team in targets). Since 2024, Achane (1.02) and Jahmyr Gibbs (1.12) are the only backs with 300-plus opportunities (carries and targets) to average more than one fantasy point per opportunity. Achane’s potentially increased opportunity, combined with that efficiency, makes him a surefire bet for elite fantasy production.
I won’t try to hide it: I love Omarion Hampton this season. He cracked my league-winners list and was my top running back value in drafts, in spite of his second round price. While his rookie season was shortened an ankle injury last year, Hampton averaged 16.5 fantasy points per game in the eight games he saw at least 15 touches.
But the real excitement comes this year's projection. The Chargers' offensive line is healthier on the outsides and improved (on paper) on the inside. New OC Mike McDaniel’s scheme is ostensibly an excellent fit for Hampton, as it features a high rate of outside runs and traditionally produces a high rate of explosive carries -- both areas in which Hampton excels. Despite his status as 2.04, Hampton could legitimately be the top overall player in fantasy in 2026.
Picking 10th
After four straight years as a top-eight pick in ADP -- specifically 1.04 last year -- Jefferson is down six spots in 2026. Why? He could not get on the same page with J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer last season. Minnesota ranked 27th in completion percentage over expected and 28th in EPA/dropback last year, per NFL Pro. As a result, Jefferson posted a 59.6% catch rate and 7.4 yards per target, after sporting a 67.8% catch rate and 10.2 yards per target through the first five seasons of his career. Youch. I’ve expressed my confidence that Kyler Murray will be the Vikings' Week 1 starter and I am basing my Jefferson projection on an improved quality of targets with Murray as his QB. That would make Jefferson a brilliant value here in the late first round.
Candidly, we’re taking Chase Brown several picks ahead of ADP here. But we have good reasons. Brown struggled in the three games that Jake Browning started in relief of an injured Joe Burrow last year -- as did most of the Bengals offense. If you remove those contests, however, Brown averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game. If you just limit the sample to the seven games Burrow started and finished, Brown averaged 21.0 PPG -- which would have edged him past De’Von Achane for RB5 in 2026. Despite all this, Brown is being drafted as the RB13. You see the disconnect? Even with those circumstantial fluctuations, Brown has logged at least 220 carries, 50 receptions, 1,300 yards and 11 touchdowns in consecutive seasons. The only other guys to hit all those marks consecutively in the last decade: Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Jahmyr Gibbs and Todd Gurley. That’s the company Brown keeps. Draft accordingly.
Picking 11th
Cook has gone from RB12 to RB8 to RB6 in overall PPR finish the past three seasons. So it should come as little surprise that he’s comfortably positioned as RB6 in ADP and RB6 in this exercise. Cook led the entire league in rush yards over expected last season (+346) and was second among qualified running backs in rate of runs over expected (46.9%) and explosive runs (39), per NFL Pro. It certainly doesn’t hurt that the Bills led the entire league in rush attempts per game in 2025 with 32.2 -- largely a reflection on OC Joe Brady, who’s now Bills head coach after Sean McDermott was fired in January. Long story short: Cook is one of the league’s best runners in one of its best offenses, and therefore is one of the safest picks in fantasy. Sometimes, it’s not that complicated.
Admittedly, Lamb had a down year in 2025. But a little bit deeper investigation creates some hope for a bounceback in 2026 for the Cowboys star. Lamb suffered an injury early in Week 3 and played only part of Week 18 as Dallas rested starters. If you take those two games out of the equation, he averaged 16.6 fantasy points and 89.4 yards per game. The real catching point was his lack of touchdowns: three on 75 receptions. That’s a rate of one TD every 25 catches. In his first five seasons, Lamb scored once every 13 catches, nearly twice as often. This is a perfect case for something called “regression to the mean.” The laws of mathematics say Lamb will find the end zone more often in 2026, and it should sling him right back into the heart of WR1 territory.
Picking 12th
Average draft position will tell you to wait until the Round 2-3 turn for Brown. So, why are we taking him a whole round early?! Because I have AJB as my WR6. He was No. 8 on my league-winners list, thanks to the perfect marriage between his skill set and Drake Maye's. Before the Eagles’ offense lost its identity in 2025, Brown had posted 12.2 air yards per target, a 64 percent catch rate and 5.5 yards after the catch in his first couple of years in Philly, per NFL Pro. That’s a rare combination of reliability and YAC on impressive downfield usage. Meanwhile, Maye led all qualified passers in completions, success rate and passer rating on downfield throws last season. The best year of Brown’s career -- when he was the fantasy WR6 -- coincided with Jalen Hurts' breakout in 2022. Brown has that kind of ceiling (or better) with Maye in 2026.
There’s only one question when it comes to Derrick Henry. Is this finally the year? The man is 32 years old and has shouldered 2,851 career touches ... and he just refuses to slow down. He logged 5.2 yards per carry, a 41% success rate and an 11.7% explosive run rate last year, per NFL Pro, all above or right around his career averages in those metrics. He also hit 20-plus miles per hour on five carries, matching his career high. Do you want to bet that Father Time and Henry’s (alleged) humanity finally catch up to the six-time fantasy RB1? I don’t. I’m taking him early in the second round and not looking back.
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"GMFB" debates what do you think of Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry's motivation for 2026.
Just missed the cut ...
• Texans WR Nico Collins: Collins would be one of my first targets in the third round, as I believe in his talent (elite 2.8 yards per route run the last three years) and opportunity at the helm of Houston’s passing attack.
• Rams RB Kyren Williams: The presence and growing involvement of Blake Corumare really the only factors keeping Williams out of my top 12 RBs and top 24 overall. I still like him more than consensus.
• Cardinals TE Trey McBride: McBride just had an absurd 2025 season and should be very good again. However, I prefer Brock Bowers at tight end and fear a bit of regression for McBride.
I like them less than ADP ...
• Eagles RB Saquon Barkley: I think Barkley is going so high in ADP (13th overall) because drafters expect some version of 2024 Barkley to return and replace 2025 Barkley. Candidly, I do not, so he’s outside of my top 24.
• Chiefs RB Kenneth Walker III: There’s a lot of hype around “K9” in Kansas City, but I’m not fully bought in, primarily because of touchdown concerns. He’s my RB16.
• Chiefs WR Rashee Rice: I’m very cautious about drafting Rice, despite the flashes he’s shown in limited action. There are simply safer wideouts with similar ceilings I prefer taking this early.