NFC South standings
NFC South standings
2026 NFC South Standings: How Buccaneers Will Stack Up
The 2026 NFL season is just around the corner. So let’s take a look at how Tampa Bay could end up in the NFC South standings.
Last season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did not win the NFC South for the first time in four seasons. The Bucs finished in second place with an 8-9 record, causing them to miss the playoffs for the first time since the 2019 season.
There will be a lot of change with the Bucs’ 2026 team. Tampa Bay lost franchise legends Lavonte David and Mike Evans to retirement and free agency, respectively. The Bucs also overhauled their coaching staff, with nine new coaches in the room for 2026.
Tampa Bay also revamped its defense. The team will likely have five new starters on defense, filled by free-agent acquisitions and draft picks.
The Bucs aren’t the only team to go through major change this offseason. And to project the NFC South standings, we need to first discuss the changes the other teams in the division made.
Breaking Down Other Teams in the Division
Carolina Panthers (2025 Record: 8-9)
Key Acquisitions: OLB Jaelan Phillips, LB Devin Lloyd, OT Monroe Freeling
Key Departures: RB Rico Dowdle, DT A’Shawn Robinson, OL Austin Corbett
The Carolina Panthers’ season will again be defined by the progression of quarterback Bryce Young, who heads into his fourth season in the NFL.
Last season, Young set career highs with 3,011 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns and a 63.6% completion percentage. He also recorded a career-best 39 completions of 20+ yards a year ago.
Young’s numbers have increased in both seasons under head coach Dave Canales. And now he will be looking to put together his best season yet, with Carolina declining to commit to a long-term extension until after the 2026 season plays out.
The Panthers have a complement of solid weapons on offense. Second-year receiver Tetairoa McMillan is coming off winning Offensive Rookie of the Year after posting 1,014 receiving yards and seven touchdown receptions in his rookie campaign. Carolina is also looking for a bounce-back campaign after posting just 511 rushing yards in 2025 due to lingering injuries. Hubbard had 1,195 rushing yards in 2024.
Young players like Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette and Jonathan Brooks taking a step forward will be a ceiling-raiser for the Panthers in 2026.
Carolina also invested in its defense this offseason. The Panthers brought in linebackers Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd to fill major holes on their defense. Carolina ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed and sacks last season.
A big hindrance to improvement for the Panthers this season is their tough schedule. Carolina plays Chicago, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Denver and Seattle outside of division play this season.
Carolina has also received some tough injury news in the last week, with rookie receiver Chris Brazzell III and second-year player Nic Scourton both going down for the season in training camp.
Atlanta Falcons (2025 Record: 8-9)
Key Acquisitions: QB Tua Tagovailoa, CB Avieon Terrell, WR Jahan Dotson
Key Departures: WR Darnell Mooney, LB Kaden Elliss, David Onyemata, QB Kirk Cousins
The Atlanta Falcons are the team with the most questions surrounding them this season.
They will have a new head coach in Kevin Stefanski this season. Stefanski has had an up-and-down coaching career with the Cleveland Browns, winning two NFL Coach of the Year awards and taking Cleveland to the playoffs twice during his tenure. However, overall he has a 46-58 record as a head coach, and he was fired in January by the Browns.
Then you get to the quarterback room in Atlanta. Former Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa signed a one-year deal with the Falcons this offseason after a rocky finish to his Miami tenure. Michael Penix Jr. returns and is in the mix for the starting spot after an up-and-down 2025 season, including a midseason ACL tear that he is recovering from.
And the Falcons’ pair of young edge rushers might not see the field much this season, with Jalon Walker tearing his ACL at training camp and James Pierce Jr. facing a potential suspension after being arrested in February.
Even with all the questions, the talent that Atlanta has is undeniable. The team has one of the best running back and wide receiver tandems in the NFL with Bijan Robinson and Drake London. Robinson had 2,298 scrimmage yards last season, which led the NFL. London had 919 receiving yards in 12 games with multiple different quarterbacks last season.
Atlanta also has one of the strongest safety duos in the league, with veteran Jessie Bates III being one of the league’s best safeties since going to Atlanta in 2023. Second-year safety Xavier Watts was a Defensive Rookie of the Year finalist last season.
The Falcons have plenty of talent on their roster, but whether the talent outweighs the questions is what will define Atlanta’s place in the 2026 NFC South standings.
New Orleans Saints (2025 Record: 6-11)
Key Acquisitions: RB Travis Etienne Jr., OL David Edwards, LB Kaden Elliss, WR Jordyn Tyson
Key Departures: LB Demario Davis, CB Alontae Taylor, TE Taysom Hill
The optimism around the New Orleans Saints this season all stems from a strong finish to the 2025 season spearheaded by rookie quarterback Tyler Shough.
The Saints were 5-4 when Shough started and 1-7 when he didn’t start in 2025. In nine starts and 11 games total, he posted 2,384 passing yards, 13 total touchdowns and a 67.6% completion percentage.
New Orleans is only leaning into Shough’s success by adding two high-level weapons for the offense in eighth overall pick Jordyn Tyson and free-agent running back Travis Etienne Jr. Tyson had 1,812 receiving yards in his final two collegiate seasons at Arizona State. Etienne Jr. has rushed for 1,000 yards or more in three of his four seasons with the Jaguars. They also return receiver Chris Olave, who had a career-high 100 receptions, 1,163 receiving yards and nine touchdown catches.
The Saints’ defense also had a strong season in 2025. New Orleans finished the season ranked ninth in total defense, fourth in passing yards allowed and sixth in opponent yards per rush.
New Orleans will be without its leading tackler and mainstay veteran linebacker Demario Davis this season after he left the team in free agency to go to the New York Jets.
However, the Saints return veteran defensive end Cameron Jordan along with a young, talented secondary made up of cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry and safety Jonas Sanker. New Orleans’ defense took a tough blow last week in training camp with projected starting defensive tackle Bryan Breese suffering a season-ending ACL injury.
The Saints will likely be the team that could have the most variance in the NFC South standings this season.
Buccaneers Outlook Compared to the Rest of the Division
Tampa Bay is widely considered the betting favorite to win the NFC South in 2026.
In many ways, it was stunning that Tampa Bay didn’t win the division last season. The Bucs stormed out to a 6-2 start and then lost seven of their final nine games, choking away the division lead. The Bucs were 6-6 in one-score games, but they lost four of their final five contests that were decided by one possession.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles is firmly on the hot seat heading into the season with a 36-36 record as a head coach with the Bucs. They also have key players like quarterback Baker Mayfield and defensive tackle Vita Vea as impending free agents.
Sportsbooks banking on Tampa Bay at the top of the NFC South standings are banking on the Bucs being healthy and boosting their record.
Tampa Bay had one of the most effective offensive lines in 2024, but four of their five starters missed multiple games last season, slowing down their offensive attack. Key offensive weapons like running back Bucky Irving, receivers Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan also missed significant time.
Those guys are poised to return, which should boost the Bucs’ offensive production.
On defense, the Bucs struggled in 2025, ranking in the bottom half of the league in scoring and total defense. However, Tampa Bay’s front office has revamped that unit with multiple different players projected to start this season.
A healthy offense and revamped defense are what could define the Bucs’ rise to the top of the NFC South standings this season.
Projected NFC South Standings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
Carolina Panthers (8-9)
New Orleans Saints (7-10)
Atlanta Falcons (5-12)
More Tampa Bay Buccaneers News:
Main Photo Courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck – Imagn Images