Professional sports are a bottom line business and we run the risk of making things too simple. Entering the season it would fair to say that the playoffs were a litmus test on the 2026 for both Dana Brown and Joe Espada. If they were able to win the division they would likely keep their job and if they didn’t make the playoffs they would likely lose their job. However, that benchmark flies in the face of common sense.
In short, not every division is created equal. We see it in the NFL every season. At least one of the divisions (usually the AFC or NFC South) will see a 9-8 team when the division. We have seen 7-9 teams win the division before. This season has seen the extreme version of that in the AL West. It appears now that if any team finishes .500 or better they will take the division. Below is a quick look at the projected standings according to Fangraphs.com along with how much each team is spending according to Spotrac.com and their millions per win.
Salary
Won-Loss
Cost per win
Houston Astros
239.0
82-80
2.91
Texas Rangers
189.5
80-82
2.37
Seattle Mariners
165.7
79-83
2.10
Los Angeles Angels
172.3
65-97
2.65
Homeless Athletics
96.0
65-97
1.48
In Economics, there is something called the law of diminishing returns. It essentially means that there is a saturation point where additional resources (or personnel) really don’t add productivity. I would surmise that when we get to the teams at or above the tax line we will see similar results as we see here with Houston. However, Jim Crane would be correct to point out that he’s not getting a ton of bang for his buck.
More than one thing can be true at the same time. The Astros can both reach global expectations by advancing to the wild card round of the playoffs and grossly underperform at the same time. Given the financial disparity between the Astros and the rest of the division, they should be in the lead. As much as we may decry Jim Crane not being willing to go above the tax, he certainly is supporting the team financially more than any other team in the division.
We could look at Brown’s moves on the pitching side of things this season and come away extremely underwhelmed. It is also fair to look at the deadline and come away disappointed. The biggest drawbacks came in the simultaneous comments about the need for a right handed hitting outfielder and the fact that we didn’t get pitching, but we have guys coming back from injuries and that is like getting a guy in a trade.
The first one is an easy one. Brown was fixated on left handed hitting outfielders and we have looked long and hard on that fixation. The question will be whether there was someone better than Nelson Velasquez available and what the cost would have been to get that player. The second question is a little more dubious because this isn’t the first year we are hearing this. Suffice it to say, expecting pitchers to return from Tommy John and immediately produce is a fool’s errand.
The Astros have two pitchers returning from TJ surgery and one that is about a year removed from his return. That pitcher also missed about two months to injury this season. So, let’s take a look at what all three have done since coming back. In short, was banking on league average performance from those arms really a good mathematical gamble?
Games
INN
ER
H
SO
BB
ERA
Ronel Blanco
5
23.1
20
22
20
12
8.14
Hayden Wesneski
4
22.2
13
23
18
7
5.16
Cristian Javier
7
23.0
11
26
21
7
4.30
Total
16
69.0
44
71
59
26
5.74
There are multiple ways to look at this data. We can look at as a whole. Simply put, the collective performance isn’t good enough. Given that Tatsuya Imai has failed in the rotation and Mike Burrows is currently rehabbing, but he hasn’t been good enough either. The initial plan following the deadline was for these three pitchers to take the last three spots in the rotation. That plan is obviously a losing plan before you even start.
Thus comes the problem with Brown. If the plan was that hopefully one of these three pitchers would be usable then you could look at Javier’s numbers and say that was a success. If you came in with the expectation that one of the three would be an absolute dud then Blanco would fit that profile. Success and failure is not necessarily a binary thing. A lot of is nuance and depends on what was expected. For instance, Burrows opened the season as the number two starter. That was an abject failure.
Presumably, he will have one more rehab start and could theoretically return. If he finished the season strong then you could look at him as a global success in that he could finish at or near career norms. The same true of Imai if he finishes the season strong in the bullpen. It wouldn’t meet the lofty expectations, but the final verdict would be more complicated than a simple fail.
There isn’t a single person that should look at 82 wins as successful. It might be for some franchises for their own personal situation. For instance, the White Sox have taken a nice step forward this season. For a team spending nearly 240 million dollars, 82 wins is simply not good enough. There are always whys and what fors in these situations. Maybe ownership hamstrung him. Maybe he was hamstrung by a lack of resources or good minor league talent to trade. Maybe any one of us would have said no to any of the offers he was getting to bring in pitching or a right handed bat. These are all legitimate reasons and/or excuses. Still, it’s a bottom line business and the bottom line is that this is not good enough. You might win a crappy division and certainly that is something, but it is not the something we expected at the beginning of the season.