Manchester City Predictions: Opta Supercomputer’s Projections for Premier League 2026-27
Pep Guardiola has gone, as have influential players like Rodri and Bernardo Silva. Can Man City still challenge for the Premier League title with Enzo Maresca? We look at the Opta supercomputer’s pre-season predictions.
A lot has changed at Manchester City this summer.
They’ve lost influential midfielder Rodri to Barcelona, while Bernardo Silva also departed the club, leaving on a free transfer at the end of 2025-26 before signing for Real Madrid. Oh, and Pep Guardiola left.
The manager who delivered City six Premier League titles, their only Champions League crown and eight domestic cups (5 x League Cup, 3 x FA Cup) decided to call it a day at City at the end of last season. The impact of his departure is still a bit of an unknown, but if their 3-0 defeat against Arsenal in last weekend’s Community Shield is anything to go by, it might take a while for City to recover.
Enzo Maresca is the man entrusted to replace Guardiola in the Man City dugout, and he does still have the goalscoring machine Erling Haaland to call upon.
So what can we expect from City this season? Ahead of the opening weekend of action in the competition, we look at the Opta supercomputer’s pre-season projections for them in the 2026-27 Premier League.
The Opta Supercomputer’s Pre-Season Predictions: Man City
Most Likely Finish: 1st
Likelihood of Winning the Premier League: 19.6%
Likelihood of a Top-Four Finish: 60.1%
Want the good news, Man City fans? In the Opta supercomputer’s pre-season simulations, your team finished first more than they did in any of the other 19 positions in the Premier League.
Ah yes, the bad news. So did Arsenal, and they finished first in significantly more of those pre-season sims (40.6%) than City (19.6%).
So while City did finish first in the Premier League table in more simulations than the other positions, they are deemed the second-likeliest side to win the Premier League in 2026-27.
Last season, City failed to win the Premier League title for a second successive season, but one positive could be that they finished closer to Arsenal in 2025-26 (seven points) than they did title-winning Liverpool in 2024-25 (13 points).
Man City Predictions Premier League 2026-27
Man City Predictions Premier League 2026-27
The Opta supercomputer saw Arsenal (80.3%) and City (60.1%) secure a finish inside the top four places of the Premier League in more than half of its 10,000 season simulations, so there is confidence that City have enough to qualify for the UEFA Champions League for a 17th season in a row.
With a lot of change at City this summer, what chance of a shock bottom-half finish in the Premier League? The Opta supercomputer saw them finish below 10th place in just 10.1% of simulations.
*All prediction data is based on Opta supercomputer projections from simulations run on 20 August 2026.
Premier League Opta Stats
Premier League Opta Stats