A year ago, we entered September with four notable restricted free agents – Josh Giddey, Jonathan Kuminga, Quentin Grimes, and Cam Thomas – still on the board.
The situation isn’t quite that bad for RFAs this season, especially now that Peyton Watson has landed in Cleveland via sign-and-trade on a new four-year, $88MM deal. But as we enter late August, there are still two restricted free agents in search of new contracts.
The first is the player who ranked atop our list of this offseason’s top 50 free agents back in June. Pistons center Jalen Duren is coming off a breakthrough season in which he increased his scoring average to 19.5 points per game while averaging double-digit rebounds (10.5 RPG) for the third consecutive year. He made his first All-Star team, was named to the All-NBA third team, and was widely regarded as the second-best player on a 60-win squad.
However, Duren’s free agency has been complicated by a few factors. For one, he didn’t exactly strengthen his case for a massive long-term deal with his performance in the playoffs, where he averaged just 10.2 PPG and 8.5 RPG and occasionally found himself sitting in favor of reserve big man Paul Reed during clutch minutes.
Secondly, Duren’s All-NBA nod made him eligible for a “Rose rule” contract, which allows him to sign for up to 30% of this season’s salary cap instead of the usual 25%. Since his maximum deal is now technically worth $287MM over five seasons instead of $239MM, there will likely be a more sizable gap for the two sides to bridge in their negotiations.
Finally, and perhaps most crucially, there simply aren’t any viable alternatives for Duren at this point besides returning to Detroit. No team has nearly enough cap room to sign the big man to an offer sheet that the Pistons would think twice about matching. The Pistons, in turn, haven’t been willing to entertain the possibility of a sign-and-trade, despite the fact that a number of teams would likely have interest. Sacramento was cited as one of those teams early in free agency, but Detroit quickly shut down the idea of a deal involving Domantas Sabonis.
With no realistic path to changing teams, Duren’s only real leverage is the threat of accepting his one-year qualifying offer, which is worth $9,615,393. Taking that route would give him trade veto power for 2026/27 and would put him on track for unrestricted free agency next summer. But that’d be an extremely risky move, considering that the Pistons are reportedly prepared to offer him $30-35MM annually on a long-term deal.
Discussing Duren’s situation this week with his colleague Hunter Patterson, John Hollinger of The Athletic pointed out that unlikely incentives used to be one way for a team and a player to reach a compromise in these situations. A club could offer a base salary it’d be comfortable with and then add bonuses that could be earned based on certain team- or player-related achievements. If the player met those criteria, it was a win-win for him and his team.
But those kinds of bonuses have become increasingly rare due to the new apron rules. While unlikely incentives don’t count for cap and tax purposes unless they’re actually earned, they always count toward a team’s apron salary, which complicates the bookkeeping for teams with high payrolls. The Nuggets, for example, wouldn’t currently be a second-apron team if not for $5.6MM in unlikely incentives included in Cameron Johnson‘s and Aaron Gordon‘s deals.
I’d be surprised if Duren and the Pistons don’t ultimately agree to terms on a long-term contract. Something in the range of Alperen Sengun‘s five-year, $185MM deal with Houston seems fair to me, but we’ll see where the two sides end up.
It’s a little trickier to project what will happen with the unsigned restricted free agent, Clippers swingman Bennedict Mathurin.
Acquired from the Pacers in February’s Ivica Zubac trade, Mathurin played a significant role off the bench for the Clippers down the stretch in 2025/26, averaging 17.4 points in 28.0 minutes per game with a career-high 27.8% usage rate. But he made just 17-of-82 three-pointers (20.7%) and his turnovers and assists were in the same ballpark, as they have been for most of his four-year NBA career (he has compiled 502 turnovers to 500 assists).
Mathurin’s age (24) and upside as a scorer make him an intriguing option going forward, but the Clippers’ crowded roster situation was only exacerbated by Thursday’s acquisition of veteran wing Max Strus. Assuming the Kawhi Leonard trade is eventually completed as planned, L.A. will have 16 players on fully guaranteed contracts and a 17th (Cam Christie) on a non-guaranteed deal. Even if Johni Broome and Christie are waived, another move would be necessary to make room for Mathurin.
That’s probably not a big deal if Mathurin is a priority, but it remains unclear if that’s the case. There was some chatter prior to free agency that the Clippers might forgo a qualifying offer for the former Pacer entirely in an effort to clear cap space. While the club ultimately didn’t go in that direction, the fact that it was apparently under consideration suggests that re-signing Mathurin to a multiyear deal wasn’t a top priority for the front office entering the summer.
Since Mathurin isn’t expect to command nearly as lucrative a contract as Duren, a sign-and-trade is a more realistic outcome for him. The Pelicans, Bulls, Bucks, and Mavericks have all been mentioned as possible suitors, though most of those clubs would be limited in what they could offer him due to their position relative to the tax line.
Accepting his one-year, $8,774,590 qualifying offer wouldn’t be a terrible resolution for Mathurin if a sign-and-trade can’t be worked out and he doesn’t get a multiyear offer he likes from the Clippers. He has an October 1 deadline on that QO, so there’s no rush to make a decision on it right away.
Still, figuring out how to get to a team that covets him via sign-and-trade is probably the preferred outcome for Mathurin. Signing the qualifying offer sometimes works out, but a player can’t count on having a series of more favorable options in unrestricted free agency a year later, especially since his team often isn’t as motivated to give him regular rotation minutes when his long-term future with the organization isn’t assured.
A year ago, two of those four RFAs who remained unsigned into September eventually signed their qualifying offers. Grimes, who accepted his QO with the Sixers, signed a four-year, $60MM deal with the Lakers this summer. On the other hand, Thomas, who accepted his QO with the Nets, was waived twice last season and remains unsigned this offseason. Their diverging paths should serve as a reminder to Mathurin of the risk inherent in making that one-year bet if a multiyear alternative is on the table.