NBA: Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat
Nov 24, 2025; Miami, Florida, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Klay Thompson (31) takes a three-point shot as Miami Heat forward Keshad Johnson (16) closes in during the second half at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)
The NBA offseason has already been the most hectic ever, and now a future Hall of Famer has found a new home.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reports that 4-time NBA Champion Klay Thompson has agreed to a buyout with the Dallas Mavericks and will sign with the Miami Heat once cleared.
This move was rumored for weeks now, as Thompson and the Mavericks were eyeing a mutual split. The Heat are in win-now mode after trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo earlier this summer, and the biggest need is now spacing.
MORE: Projecting the 2026 Miami Heat starting lineup after Klay Thompson signing
Antetokounmpo is going to be a force inside on offense and will have multiple bodies on him, leaving shooters open. Miami didn’t have much shooting around their new star, though, so this move makes all the sense in the world.
Thompson is coming off a down season, posting career lows of 11.4 points per game and 39.3% field goal percentage. The Mavericks were in an awful situation, though: a bad team revolving around rookie Cooper Flagg while also without Kyrie Irving.
Now heading to the Eastern Conference, Thompson and the Heat have title expectations. Miami also has a better path to the Finals that doesn’t involve beating either the Thunder or Spurs to get there.
MORE: Predicting the NBA champion & final 4 ahead of 2026-2027 season
Thompson will likely start for the Heat this October, but how much does this really move the needle for NBA title odds?
Miami Heat’s odds to win NBA title after signing Klay Thompson
NBA: Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks
Mar 1, 2025; Dallas, Texas, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) looks to score as Dallas Mavericks guard Klay Thompson (31) defends. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Thompson signing with the Heat isn’t moving the needle very far. The Heat don’t even rank among the top 10 teams in the NBA with the shortest odds to win the title. The NBA title odds as follows.
San Antonio Spurs (+270)
Oklahoma City Thunder (+270)
Philadelphia 76ers (+900)
New York Knicks (+900)
Boston Celtics (+1300)
Cleveland Cavaliers (+2200)
Toronto Raptors (+2500)
Minnesota Timberwolves (+2500)
Detroit Pistons (+2500)
Denver Nuggets (+2500)
Miami Heat (+3000)
The Heat are appropriately placed within the NBA title odds. Even with Thompson added, the roster is thin, and there isn’t a ton of high-octane offense around Antetokounmpo. This isn’t the Thompson of 2019, who was All-NBA and the best 3-and-D player on the planet.
The best scenario for Thompson’s role on the Heat is that he stays healthy and keeps his three-point percentage at or above the 38.3% he shot last season. If Miami can get 10-14 points out of Thompson with consistent shooting, then that’s a win. That being said, Miami still isn’t a title contender, and honestly not a top-5 team in the Eastern Conference.
The Knicks, 76ers, Celtics, Pistons, and Cavaliers all have more complete rosters than the Heat. Antetokounmpo can be the best player in the conference, but that’s not enough.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.