DeShon Elliott Robert Spears-Jennings Steelers offense Mike McCarthy Rico Dowdle Michael Pittman Jr.
DeShon Elliott Robert Spears-Jennings Steelers offense Mike McCarthy Rico Dowdle Michael Pittman Jr.
My latest Pittsburgh Steelers 53-man roster prediction following the team’s 17-0 preseason loss to the New York Jets Friday night. I’ll have one more projection ahead of the Aug. 30 cutdowns.
There is one crucial change to how I’m predicting this roster. Previously, I looked at it from the perspective of what the Steelers’ Week 1 roster would look like. With cutdowns closer and more in focus, I’m changing that lens to how the roster will look at the cutdown deadline, next Sunday at 6 PM/EST. Keep that in mind as you check my newest changes.
As always, let me know your thoughts in the comments. You’ll find my previous three roster predictions below to show how they have evolved.
Post-Draft Roster Prediction
Pre-Camp Roster Prediction
Post-Packers Game Roster Prediction
Offense – 25
Quarterbacks (4) – Aaron Rodgers, Mason Rudolph, Will Howard, Drew Allar
Analysis: If there was any lingering doubt, Friday cemented Mason Rudolph’s spot as the No. 2 quarterback. Without him even having to lift a finger. Will Howard and Drew Allar lost some of their shine from their preseason debuts, and it’s doubtful either are trusted enough in current form to be one snap away from entering regular-season action.
Still, coaches seemed to deflect blame for Will Howard’s two interceptions on other factors, specifically WR Roman Wilson and the depth of his routes, and Howard made other positive strides during the game. The offense moved the ball before those two picks. Allar also had his moments. Keeping four is on the table and if recent reporting is to be believed, Howard’s spot is already spoken for.
Running Backs (3) – Jaylen Warren, Rico Dowdle, Riley Nowakowski (FB)
Analysis: One of the few, and definitely the most interesting, changes to this roster update. There’s been plenty of talk about who will be the No. 3 runner. Veteran and special teamer Travis Homer, summer riser Lew Nichols, former third-round pick Kaleb Johnson, or fan-favorite rookie Eli Heidenreich?
What if it’s none of the above?
Remember, this is my prediction for how the roster looks immediately after cutdowns. Not how it’ll look for Week 1 against Atlanta. Of course, the Steelers will have a third back available to them by then, but that could come through a practice squad elevation instead of someone already on the 53-man roster.
Have any of the No. 3 candidates truly earned a spot? Homer has minimal offensive value. Nichols has played well but hasn’t forced his way onto a spot. Johnson didn’t particularly impress despite a longer look against the Jets. And Heidenreich feels much more like practice squad than 53-man roster.
Homer, if he re-signs with the practice squad, would most likely get the roster call-up for the first three games. He isn’t subject to waivers and is doubtful to garner much interest around the league. Knowing that and accounting for the chance that Pittsburgh needs to carry an injured player an extra day (even with two spots, the team could opt to wait an extra 24 hours as it did with Will Howard last year), and in the interest of keeping the best 53, the Steelers temporarily go short at running back. It offsets going heavy at quarterback.
Wide Receivers (6) – DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Roman Wilson, Germie Bernard, Ben Skowronek, Kaden Wetjen
Analysis: No changes here, though it’s fair to wonder how strong the group is. Wilson, Bernard, and Wetjen have been prone to mistakes over the summer. If Wetjen has ball-security issues in the preseason finale, is it a crazy thought that Max Hurleman could get the nod over him? He averaged 29 yards on three kicks against New York and returned his punt 14 yards.
Probably not given Wetjen’s fourth-round value and his own flashes, but it’s a thought I’ve had.
Tight Ends (3) – Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, Robert Tonyan
Analysis: This group seems set. There’s a chance Pittsburgh plays the roster yo-yo game with Tonyan the way I outlined above with Homer. But Tonyan’s had a great summer and will be part of the Week 1 roster.
Offensive Tackles (4) – Troy Fautanu, Dylan Cook, Max Iheanachor, Broderick Jones
Analysis: No alterations here, either. There’s still some question over who starts at right tackle but it seems likely Cook gets the nod with Jones operating as a swing tackle. Iheanachor has just missed too much time. He’d need to be healthy for the Buffalo game and have a tremendous performance just to have a chance to start the season opener.
Internally, there’s no one else pushing for a roster spot.
Interior Offensive Line (5) – Zach Frazier, Mason McCormick, Spencer Anderson, Brock Hoffman, Gennings Dunker
Analysis: Again, leaving Ryan McCollum off in a tough cut, but he didn’t have a strong showing against New York. Hoffman will operate as the backup center. It’s been disappointing to have Iheanachor absent all preseason along with Dunker missing Friday’s game. They both face a short turnaround to the finale.
Defense – 25
Defensive Linemen (6) – Cam Heyward, Derrick Harmon, Keeanu Benton, Yahya Black, Sebastian Joseph-Day, Gabriel Rubio
Analysis: With so much mixing and matching blurring lines between defensive end and nose tackle, I’m just lumping the entire d-line together. The group is unchanged. Dean Lowry remains in the mix, but Pittsburgh goes with the rookie Rubio, who has played well and has the end/nose tackle flexibility that Lowry lacks.
Edge Rushers (4) – T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig, Jack Sawyer
Analysis: No movement here. Unless injury strikes, my final prediction will be unchanged, too. Jamin Davis has posted good preseason production, but I can’t see him making the 53 unless someone gets hurt. His skill set, notably his tightness, won’t translate as well to regular-season action.
Inside Linebackers (5) – Patrick Queen, Payton Wilson, Cole Holcomb, Carson Bruener, Elandon Roberts
Analysis: The group is the group. Roberts reminded everyone of his talent in Friday’s preseason game, throwing his weight around and making tackles. Lots of pressure on the top of the depth chart, Queen and Wilson, to play well.
Cornerbacks (6) – Joey Porter Jr., Jamel Dean, Jalen Ramsey, Asante Samuel Jr., Brandin Echols, Daylen Everette
Analysis: Keeping Ramsey at cornerback like my last prediction. He will float at multiple positions but probably play in the slot when Pittsburgh is in sub-packages. It’s a talented and deep group that unfortunately has been hit by several injuries preventing them from getting summer reps together.
Safeties (4) – Jaquan Brisker, DeShon Elliott, Rayshawn Jenkins, Robert Spears-Jennings
Analysis: The other change to my roster. Spears-Jennings makes it over a No. 3 running back. He’s simply played too well to keep off the 53. His defensive reps have been shortened by DeShon Elliott’s return to full action, but Spears-Jennings impressed against the Jets. A strong rep as a gunner to force a penalty and a pass breakup separating player from ball over the middle.
He’s simply one of the best 53 players on the roster and deserves to make the team.
Special Teams – 3
Kicker (1) – Chris Boswell
Analysis: The Steelers rested Boswell for the second preseason game. I wouldn’t be upset if the same held true for the finale against Buffalo.
Punter (1) – Cameron Johnston
Analysis: Johnston’s punted well and will open the year as Pittsburgh’s starter.
Long Snapper (1) – Christian Kuntz
Analysis: No debate here.
Just Missed The Cut
To get a window into my roster construction, March Madness style, here are the first three names outside the bubble.
No. 54: RB Travis Homer – Homer loses his spot in favor of Spears-Jennings. If I had a magic wand to add a 54th player, it’d be Homer.
No. 55: C Ryan McCollum – Same as last week. McCollum is just outside the bubble.
No. 56: DE Dean Lowry – He loses out to the rookie Rubio.
Practice Squad – 17
QB – None
RB – Travis Homer, Lew Nichols, Eli Heidenreich
TE – Lake McRee
WR – Max Hurleman, Levi Wentz
OL – Ryan McCollum, Doug Nester
DL – Dean Lowry, Kyler Baugh
EDGE – Jamin Davis, Julius Welschof*
ILB – Jacoby Windmon
CB – D’Shawn Jamison, Doneiko Slaughter, Devan Boykin
S – Sebastian Castro
*International exemption
Analysis: Extra heavy at running back with just two true runners kept on the initial 53. Again, Homer will be an elevation to open the year. McRee had a nice catch against New York while Hurleman has enjoyed an overlooked but strong summer. Nester has versatility and beats out Jack Driscoll.
McCollum and Lowry revert to the practice squad should they choose not to pursue a chance elsewhere.
Davis has played well enough to stick on the practice squad. Lots of defensive backs stick, too. Castro versus Jack Henderson could be a battle to watch for the finale. Wide receiver Brandon Smith is still injured but could be brought back once healthy.
Pittsburgh could look for external practice squad help at tight end, a second wide receiver, and outside linebacker.