Mar 23, 2026; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Los Angeles Lakers Luka Doncic (77) reacts to a play against the Detroit Pistons during the second half at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-Imagn Images
Mar 23, 2026; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Los Angeles Lakers Luka Doncic (77) reacts to a play against the Detroit Pistons during the second half at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-Imagn Images
The Los Angeles Lakers made massive roster changes to fit the style of Luka Doncic, and now are one of the most unpredictable teams going into the 2026-27 season. Last season, the Lakers had a 53-29 record and finished fourth in the Western Conference, having the 9th-best offense and a very low 19th-ranked defense. Their season ended poorly when they were swept by the Thunder in the second round.
Now LeBron James, Rui Hachimura, Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard, Deandre Ayton, and Jaxson Hayes are gone, while Walker Kessler, Quentin Grimes, Collin Sexton, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Jaden Hardy, Kevon Looney, Ziaire Williams, and Matisse Thybulle are in.
So this team is pretty different now. The Lakers basically went forward with Doncic and Austin Reaves as the main offensive core, then tried to give them more shooting, more defense, and a center who fits Luka much better. It sounds good on paper, but there are also some pretty clear problems, especially because LeBron still gave them 20.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 7.2 assists last season, and replacing that much production isn’t easy at all.
The good part is that the Lakers don’t need every new player to become amazing. They need Kessler to protect the rim, Grimes to defend good guards and wings, Sexton to score off the bench, and Reaves to become a little better as the No. 2 option. If those things happen, this team could be an absolute threat. But if injuries, roster fit, and the defense make them struggle, this season could turn out sour pretty quickly.
Best-Case Scenario: Everything Around Luka Fits
Best-case record: 57-25
Best-case seed: No. 2 in the West
Best-case playoff result: Western Conference Finals (maybe an NBA Finals trip)
The best version of the Lakers starts with Luka playing like an MVP again. Doncic finished last season with 33.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 8.3 assists while shooting 47.6% from the field and 36.6% from three, so the Lakers really don’t need more from him. They just need him healthy for around 65 to 70 games, because when Luka is on the floor, the offense is going to be good no matter what.
What can make his life easier is Walker Kessler. He only played five games last season because of a shoulder injury, but he still put up 14.4 points, 10.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.8 blocks while shooting 70.3% from the field. His job next to Luka is super simple: set hard screens, roll to the rim, catch lobs, get offensive rebounds, and protect the paint on the other end.
That fit should help a lot because Luka has always been at his best with a big man who can put pressure on the rim. He doesn’t need Kessler posting up 12 times per game or trying to shoot over defenders. He needs him to make the defense choose between stopping Luka in the pick-and-roll or giving Kessler a dunk, and Luka has been killing teams with that exact action for years.
Austin Reaves is the next big part of the best-case scenario. He already had 23.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 5.5 assists last season while shooting 49.0% from the field, 36.0% from three, and 87.1% from the line, so asking him for 24 or 25 points and around six assists isn’t some crazy jump. With LeBron gone, there are going to be more possessions for Reaves, especially when Luka sits or when teams send two defenders at him.
If Reaves cements himself as an All-Star-level second option, the whole roster will thrive off that. Luka can carry the main offense, Reaves can run more of his sets when needed, and the Lakers don’t have to ask Sexton or Grimes to overplay their roles. The Lakers should have elite ball-handlers every night, which is important because losing LeBron also means losing another guy who could slow the game down and create a good shot whenever things got messy.
Quentin Grimes also has a very clear role. He averaged 13.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 3.3 assists last season, but the Lakers don’t need him to score 20. They need him to defend the best perimeter scorer, hit open threes, and make life easier for Luka and Reaves, because those two are never going to be an elite defensive backcourt.
This is where the Lakers could become much better than last season. Doncic had a 113.6 defensive rating, Reaves was at 117.7, and Sexton was at 117.1, so the team needs Grimes, Thybulle, Williams, and Kessler to take the harder jobs. If Grimes can defend the best guard, Kessler can protect the rim, and Thybulle can come in for 18 or 20 minutes to make life annoying for the opponent’s star wing, the defense could jump from 19th into the top 10 or close to it.
The bench also looks much better for a regular season. Sexton averaged 15.4 points and 3.3 assists while shooting 48.5% from the field and 40.1% from three, so he should be able to come in and score against second units with ease. Jaden Hardy could also feature a lot after putting up 9.2 points in only 15.8 minutes while hitting 39.7% from three.
Mamukelashvili can stretch the floor from the frontcourt, Looney is some good insurance, and Thybulle gives them a defensive specialist for matchups where they need to slow down a superstar. None of these guys needs to excel, and that is probably the best part. If everybody just does his job, the Lakers could win 55-plus games and have a real chance to reach the Western Conference Finals.
Worst-Case Scenario: The Defense Never Clicks
Worst-case record: 43-39
Worst-case seed: No. 7 in the West
Worst-case playoff result: First-Round exit
The worst version of this team starts with one really simple problem: opponents keep attacking Luka and Reaves until the Lakers can’t hide them anymore. They finished only 19th in defensive rating last season, and now Smart is gone, so the team is asking Grimes and Kessler to do a lot defensively at the same time.
That can work in the regular season, but playoff teams are going to test it every time. They can put Luka in pick-and-rolls, make Reaves switch onto bigger scorers, and force Kessler to switch or hedge above the break. If the Lakers send extra help, there is going to be an open shooter somewhere, and that is the kind of problem that becomes alarming in a seven-game series.
Kessler’s health is also a massive risk because Los Angeles basically built the defense around him being available. He played only five games last season before surgery on his left shoulder, and the Lakers gave him four years and $130.0 million anyway. If he misses another 20 or 30 games, the whole defense suddenly might crumble.
Kevon Looney is still there, but he averaged only 2.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 0.5 blocks last season, so he isn’t giving the Lakers much rim protection. Mamu can play some center, but he’s too much of an offensive player to affect shots at the rim. So a Kessler injury could turn a defensive problem into a really complicated season.
The offense could also become too dependent on Luka if Reaves doesn’t take another step. Yes, Reaves had 23.3 points, and Sexton had 15.4, but LeBron still gave them a lot of creation that disappeared. The Lakers need somebody else to make the correct read when Luka sits or if he’s being trapped.
If Reaves struggles with that extra responsibility, the offense can lack counters. Doncic can still win them plenty of regular-season games because Luka is Luka, but against a top playoff defense that has already seen the same actions 100 times, it becomes a problem, as the Rockets suffered against the Lakers in the first round.
The Lakers also still don’t have a Mavericks-style two-way power forward. They have defenders like Thybulle and Williams, shooting from Mamukelashvili, and some size from different lineups, but there isn’t one obvious guy who can defend bigger wings, rebound, hit open threes, and play away from the ball. That can force JJ Redick into some hard choices every night.
Play Thybulle and the spacing can get worse. Play Mamu and the perimeter defense can get worse. Go smaller, and Kessler has even more work at the rim. If the Lakers have to keep rotating players in that spot, there’s definitely a scenario where this team doesn’t completely click.
The Biggest Swing Factors
1. Walker Kessler’s Health
Kessler isn’t the best player on the team, but he might be the hardest one to replace. The Lakers already know Luka can be the best offensive player in the league, Reaves can score and pass, and Sexton can give them points off the bench, but there isn’t another player on the roster who can give them Kessler’s size, rebounding, and rim protection.
Even in only five games last season, he had 10.8 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and 1.8 blocks in 30.8 minutes, including 4.6 offensive rebounds per game. That is exactly what the Lakers need next to Luka because Kessler can erase his defensive woes. If he plays around 70 games, the defense has a chance to be almost elite. If he plays 40, the road will be so much tougher.
2. Can Austin Reaves Become A Real No. 2 Option?
Reaves already has the production of a very good offensive player and could’ve been an All-Star last year, but this season the responsibility is huge. His scoring jumped from 20.2 points in 2024-25 to 23.3 last season, and his true shooting also went from 61.6% to 64.1%, so he didn’t become less efficient with more scoring load.
Now the Lakers need another step after a new five-year, $180 million deal this summer. Something around 24.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 6.0 assists with good efficiency would make him an All-Star lock and make losing LeBron much easier to handle. If he struggles more when Luka sits, as it happened against the Thunder, the Lakers might still miss that second elite creator.
3. Can The Lakers Actually Play Tough Defense?
I think that Grimes and Thybulle might decide more games than people think. The Lakers already have enough pieces to score, so what they really need is someone who can slow down the other team’s best perimeter scorer and make sure Kessler isn’t cleaning up everything at the rim and struggling to contain drives at the basket.
Grimes should get the first assignment most nights, while Thybulle can come in when the team needs more pressure, steals, and activity. Williams gives them another bigger body when Grimes struggles, given his 6-foot-4 frame. If those guys give their all on defense, the roster will click. If they don’t, I think they’ll have the same problems as last season.
4. Collin Sexton’s Role
Sexton could be one of the best Sixth Man of the Year candidates if he keeps things simple. He had 15.4 points in only 23.7 minutes last season and shot 40.1% from three, which is almost perfect production for a sixth man. The Lakers don’t need him trying to become the third star.
His job should be easy: come in, attack the rim, score against second units, hit open threes, and keep the offense alive when Luka is sitting. If Sexton accepts that role, the bench should be much better. If he starts going out of his way to prove he deserves a starting spot or just struggles from the field, the non-Luka minutes will be an even bigger issue.
Most Likely Outcome: A Very Good Team, Not A Favorite Yet
Most likely record: 50-32
Most likely seed: No. 4 in the West
Most likely playoff result: Second-round exit
I still think the Lakers land somewhere in the middle of both scenarios. The worst-case version feels too negative if Luka stays healthy because a team with a player giving you around 33 points and eight assists every night is just too hard to keep around .500. The offense should be elite every night, and there is more shooting, more depth, and a better center fit around Luka now.
At the same time, I can’t put them in the same group as the very best West teams yet, like the Thunder, Spurs, or the Rockets. Kessler changes a lot, but asking one big man to change a defense that ranked 19th is a lot. Ziaire, Grimes, and Thybulle are great additions, but there are still possible lineups with Luka, Reaves, and Sexton sharing the floor, and it’ll be hard to hide them against elite offenses like the Nuggets or Timberwolves.
That is why 50-32 feels about right. It would be three fewer wins than last season, but I actually think this roster could fit Luka better even if the regular-season record gets a little worse. There is more shooting, more rim protection, and more role players who can guard and stretch the floor, but there is also less star power now that LeBron is gone.
The ceiling is still very high. If Kessler stays healthy, Reaves becomes an All-Star and the perimeter defense works, the Lakers can reach the Western Conference Finals and make things interesting from there. If those things don’t happen, Luka is probably still good enough to drag them into the playoffs, but a first-round or second-round exit feels much more likely.
The Lakers can actually be a very good team next season, probably much better than last year given how well this squad could mesh next to Doncic. But I still think they’re a couple of steps behind the most elite teams in the West.