Liverpool's chances of winning the 2026-27 Premier League title have already shifted after Andoni Iraola's men drew Newcastle 2-2 on the opening weekend of the season
Andoni Iraola manager / head coach of Liverpool reacts
Liverpool's Premier League title odds have shifted after just one game(Image: Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt - AMA/Getty Images)
Liverpool’s odds to win the 2026-27 Premier League title have already taken a hit after drawing against Newcastle on the opening weekend.
Andoni Iraola’s reign as Liverpool manager got off to a less-than-ideal start as his side drew Newcastle 2-2 to open the new Premier League campaign. Trailing by a goal in the dying seconds, new summer signing Victor Munoz won a penalty kick, which Domink Szoboszlai buried to share the spoils at St. James’ Park.
Despite salvaging a point, the Reds had several of their shortcomings exposed by a Newcastle side that was gutted of several top players this summer and is still widely expected to struggle in the early stages of this season. The underwhelming result caused some fans’ opinions on where Liverpool stands in the Premier League title race to shift already.
On prediction market platform Kalshi, Liverpool (nine percent chance to win PL title) have now dropped behind Chelsea (12 percent) in the title picture. At the time of writing, Xabi Alonso’s side is yet to play its league opener against Fulham.
Both trail overwhelming favorites Arsenal, who are given a 52 percent shot to retain their title following a routine 3-0 trouncing of newly-promoted Coventry City on Friday. Prior to the victory, Gunners entered the season with a 45 percent probability to win the title.
Manchester City come in next at 21 percent, a number that likely would have been smaller if not for a dramatic late comeback to defeat Bournemouth 2-1 in their first league match under new manager Enzo Maresca.
Dominik Szoboszlai of Liverpool celebrates after scoring a goal
Dominik Szoboszlai saved Liverpool a point with a last-gasp penalty kick(Image: Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt - AMA/Getty Images)
Chelsea are rated third at 12 percent, a probability that remains largely unchanged since the start of the month. Liverpool were level or just above the Blues coming into the season but have now dropped below them in the eyes of Kalshi traders following the draw at St. James’ Park.
Manchester United sit fifth in the ranks at six percent, down from nine percent after their stunning 2-0 defeat to Hull City on Saturday morning.
Tottenham are the only other club with a probability greater than one percent in the Kalshi market. Roberto De Zerbi’s side are given a three percent shot despite a humbling 3-0 defeat to Brentford on Saturday afternoon.
The good news for Iraola and Liverpool is there is still time in the summer transfer window to bolster the squad, although many fans will feel there are too many holes to realistically fill before deadline day.
The Reds’ next test comes in the form of Nottingham Forest on Saturday morning, with kick-off scheduled for 7:30 am ET.
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