Jan 20, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama (1) laughs as he warms-up before playing against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
Jan 20, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama (1) laughs as he warms-up before playing against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
If Victor Wembanyama reaches 65 games played in his fourth NBA campaign, he'll win Defensive Player of the Year for the second season in a row. You know it, I know it, and everyone else knows it—including Game Theory's Sam Vecenie, who recently made a hilarious nonprediction prediction on his podcast with Bryce Simon.
"I might call my shot now: if Victor Wembanyama gets hurt, I'm gonna say Bam Adebayo might win Defensive Player of the Year this year." - Sam Vecenie
The caveat itself tells us just how dominant Wembanyama's position is entering the season. DraftKings currently gives the Spurs' franchise superstar the best odds by far to repeat at -360. The next closest player is Chet Holmgren at +1200. Wemby was the first-ever unanimous DPOY, and had his sophomore run not been derailed by a blood clot, he'd be going for a three-peat right now.
Bam Adebayo is a legitimate DPOY candidate
Bam is actually sixth, according to the oddsmakers, but to his credit, he's always been an underappreciated defender. The HEAT's 83-point man can guard positions one through five and do a tremendous job at each stop.
Adebayo doesn't have the size to meet guys at the rim consistently, but most offensive players he's guarding have trouble getting to the paint in the first place. He's as strong as an ox, but the 2017 14th pick is also quick, with great defensive instincts.
He's one of the few big men in the league that guards running the pick-and-roll want to stay away from because forcing the switch doesn't give them any advantage. Picking Bam as a runner-up is completely understandable. He's a fantastic darkhorse candidate. There's just a clear-cut number one, and that has to be acknowledged whenever DPOY conversations are had.
As talented as Miami's longest-tenured player is, he's not on the level of the Alien, but nobody is. That's not a slight to him or anyone else. It's a credit to the unbelievable ability of Wembanyama. His defensive range is unlike any that we've seen before, so the only credible way one can make an argument for someone else is by saying, "If Wemby gets hurt..."
The season is still two months away, and Defensive Player of the Year is already Wembanyama's to lose. A true "call my shot" prediction would have stood on its own, but Vic's existence prevents that from happening without a huge qualifier. That's not disrespect to Bam; it's a reflection of how ridiculous the Alien's defensive impact has become.
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