It feels like we have been asking the same question about Scottie Barnes for a while now: when does he take that next step?
Barnes is already the face of the Raptors organization. He is a two-time All-Star, a former Rookie of the Year and one of the most versatile players in the entire NBA. However, heading into the 2026-27 season, Toronto needs to find out if he can become more than just the team’s best all-around player.
The question is no longer whether Barnes can become a star. He already is one. Now, the Raptors need to find out if he can become the kind of player who can carry them when the games get bigger, and the expectations get higher.
“Can he be the guy?” That is the biggest question surrounding Barnes this season.
Last season was not necessarily his best offensive season. His scoring average dropped from 19.3 points per game to 18.1, after averaging 19.9 the year before. But looking at his scoring numbers alone would be selling his season short.
Barnes was a problem for opposing teams on defence. He finished fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting and became the only player in the NBA to record at least 100 steals and 100 blocks, finishing with 116 and 114, respectively. For a 6-foot-7 forward who is also handling a major chunk of the offence, that is pretty wild.
Those numbers weren’t just about stuffing the stat sheet. Barnes can switch onto guards, battle bigger players in the paint and make life difficult pretty much anywhere on the floor. He also led the NBA with nine clutch blocks, coming up with those plays in the final five minutes of games when the score was within five points. That is exactly the kind of thing Toronto will want to see again.
The Raptors made a massive jump defensively last season, finishing fifth in defensive rating after ranking 17th and 25th in the previous two seasons. Barnes was at the centre of that turnaround. Toronto was 4.3 points per 100 possessions better defensively with him on the court, and he was a regular in the team’s best defensive combinations.
So, what does that mean for 2026-27? The defence is probably not where Barnes needs to make his biggest jump. What he does with the ball could determine how high his ceiling really is. Barnes showed a glimpse of that during Toronto’s playoff series against Cleveland.
He averaged 24.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 8.6 assists over seven games, along with 1.1 steals and 1.7 blocks. More importantly, he looked comfortable taking on a much bigger offensive role.
When Toronto needed something to happen, Barnes was not afraid to make it happen himself. That version of Barnes is what makes the upcoming season so intriguing.
His playoff performance was enough for The Athletic’s NBA Daily to rank him 15th among its top 30 players heading into the season. That puts a pretty big target on his back, but it also shows how much his expectations have changed.
Now, the three-point line becomes the interesting part. Barnes shot 38.1 percent from three during the playoffs, but that came over only seven games. Over the regular season, he shot 30.4 percent on 2.8 attempts per game, which was right around his 30.1 percent career mark.
He does not need to turn into a volume shooter. He needs opposing teams to think twice before leaving him alone. If Barnes can get into the mid-to-high 30s from three, it would make his drives much more dangerous. Defenders would have to close out instead of waiting for him to attack, and that could create more opportunities for him to get downhill or make plays for teammates.
That is where Barnes can really start to become a nightmare matchup. He was already highly efficient in other areas last season, shooting 69.4 percent around the rim, 45.7 percent in the paint and 44.6 percent from mid-range. The shot from outside could be the piece that ties it all together.
His playmaking is also a factor. Barnes averaged 5.9 assists last season and has averaged around six assists in each of the past three seasons. He has never been a traditional forward who waits for someone else to bring him the ball. He is comfortable initiating the offence and making decisions with it in his hands.
Toronto got an extended look at that when Immanuel Quickley missed time last season, and Barnes took on more point guard responsibilities. Expect even more of those opportunities to continue.
The challenge will be knowing when to pass and when to put his head down and go get a bucket. Barnes is naturally unselfish, which is part of what makes him so good. However, there will be nights when the Raptors do not need another pass. They need Barnes to take the shot. That is the part of his game that could separate a very good Barnes season from a special one.
He enters 2026-27 with plenty already on his résumé. Barnes made his second All-Star team last season, hit a game-winning three during the All-Star Game, became the first Raptor to win Eastern Conference Defensive Player of the Month and earned Eastern Conference Player of the Week honours multiple times.
He also joined OG Anunoby and Kawhi Leonard as the only Raptors to earn a spot on the NBA’s All-Defensive Second Team. No player in franchise history has made the First Team. But individual awards won’t be the measuring stick anymore.
Toronto knows Barnes can fill up a stat sheet. It knows he can defend. It knows he can run an offence and make plays that most players his size simply cannot. Now the Raptors need to see whether all of that can translate into winning at the highest level. And help could be on the way.
If the Kawhi Leonard deal gets finalized, Barnes would have another elite two-way player beside him. Leonard would give Toronto another player who can take on a difficult defensive assignment while also carrying part of the scoring load.
For Barnes, that could mean fewer possessions where he has to do everything himself and more opportunities to pick his spots. It could also give him a front-row seat to one of the league’s most accomplished playoff performers.
If, sadly, the deal falls apart and Leonard is not on the roster come the start of the next season, the expectation for Barnes is still changing regardless. Toronto is no longer waiting for him to become the franchise player. He already is.
Now, the Raptors want to see what that franchise player looks like: the confidence to take over a game, the shooting to keep defences honest, and the experience to know exactly when his team needs him most. That is the next step.