The New York Giants have won all of 13 games over the last three seasons combined. Even considering their trip to the playoffs in 2022, it’s been a _minute_ since the Giants were a consistently competitive, or exciting, team.
The Giants’ pursuit of **John Harbaugh** generated the kind of free agent excitement that we haven’t seen since Peyton Manning’s free agency. Since then, however, the excitement surrounding the Giants has mellowed and the a sentiment of “they’re still the same old Giants” prevails.
That said, there is some optimism surrounding the Giants in some places, and some analysts believe that they could shock the world and make a real run at the playoffs _this year_.
Bill Barnwell of ESPN may have just given the Giants the loudest vote of confidence in predicting that the Giants are in the company of the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Detroit Lions as one of the [**teams most likely to improve in 2026**](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/49671327/2026-nfl-season-predict-teams-improve-more-wins-chiefs-lions-giants-jets-ravens#nyg).
Barnwell’s argument is that not only should John Harbaugh bring much-needed stability, the Giants’ win total was so far below their level of play last year that they should improve even if nothing changed.
> New York finished 4-13, but its Pythagorean expectation suggests that Big Blue performed at a 7.1 win rate. Accounting for the 17-game schedule, the Giants are one of only 13 teams since 1990 to finish three-plus wins short of their expected win total by point differential, joining last season’s Chiefs on that list.
He continues to point out that the Giants had six different opportunities in which they could — or should — have notched a win against a team with a winning record.
1. Week 2, against the Dallas Cowboys
2. Week 7, against the Denver Broncos
3. Week 10, against the Chicago Bears
4. Week 11, against the Green Bay Packers
5. Week 12, against the Detroit Lions
6. Week 15, against the Minnesota Vikings
> That’s six losses that could have gone the other way against teams with winning records. The Giants held fourth-quarter leads in five of the six -- and final-_minute_ leads in three. They lost four games where they held a win probability of at least 90% in the fourth quarter. The rest of the league lost just 15 such games combined.
In other words, the Giants own 21 percent of the entire NFL’s fourth-quarter collapses in which the losing team had at least a 90% chance of winning in the fourth quarter. And while that certainly speaks to the 2025 teams’ struggles with being consistently competent, it also shows that they had the talent to compete against playoff caliber teams.
Losing the way the Giants did last year is a pretty massive outlier. I’d argue that being one of 13 teams in the last _35_ years to underperform this badly only partly describes the situation when you also consider how frequently the 4-13 Giants were in position to beat winning teams.
Interestingly, where we’ve heard nothing but scorn for Matt Nagy and his offense, Barnwell is almost wildly optimistic for the Giants’ upside on that side of the ball. At least as long as **Jaxson Dart**, **Andrew Thomas**, **Malik Nabers**, and **Cam Skattebo** stay health.
The health of their star players is, of course, the the primary concern for the Giants. Of course, that’s also true of pretty much every team in the NFL.
Barnwell is less optimistic regarding the Giants’ defense. He has concerns regarding the run defense without Dexter Lawrence and the pass defense without Cor’Dale Flott.
Personally, I wonder just how consistently the Giants will be able to keep up with high-powered offenses or put enough pressure on opposing offenses to push them out of a “balanced” game plan — or at least do so without Jaxson Dart playing recklessly.
On the flip side, I believe that Dennard Wilson’s take on the “Ravens 2.0” scheme fits the players better from both a schematic and philosophic perspective. This is a hyper-athletic and aggressive defensive roster, and I believe Wilson’s defense will allow them to play as such. At the same time, I think I’ve seen enough to say that Wilson and Harbaugh are far more detail-oriented and hold everyone to a higher level of accountability than Shane Bowen and Brian Daboll. That seems to have energized **Abdul Carter**, who has been terrorizing offensive linemen all camp.
Likewise, we’ve also seen players like **Deonte Banks**, **Tyler Nubin**, and **Greg Newsome II** all raise their games significantly under coaches Donald D’Alesio and Addison Lynch.
Ultimately, Barnwell believes the Giants can make a real run at the playoffs this year.
> I believe they have a legitimate shot at surprising the league and becoming a last-place team that jumps into the playoffs in 2026, but so much will depend on whether the offensive standouts stay healthy for much (or all) of the year.
Considering I predicted a 10-win season, I can’t disagree with him.
But personal bias aside, the 2025 Giants were a massive outlier which should regress to their predicted win total and win seven games. That alone would be a three-game improvement over the results from last year.
From there, is it so hard to believe that adding Harbaugh (and his coaching staff), Nabers, Skattebo, a more mature and committed Carter, resurgent Banks, Newsome, Nubin, **Isaiah Likely**, **Tremaine Edmunds**, **Jordan Stout**, **Arvell Reese**, **Sisi Mauigoa**, and **Malachi Fields** would amount to more than _NO_ additional wins over what the Giants _should_ have won last year?
The Giants’ inclusion on Barnwell’s list beside the Ravens, Lions, and Chiefs may be a surprise to some, but it seems like a pretty safe bet to me.
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