Patriots Receive Encouraging Projection Despite Expected Win Decline image
The New England Patriots might be unlikely to match last season’s 14 victories, but one projection still views them as a legitimate contender in the AFC.
The Athletic’s Austin Mock projected New England to win 10.3 games during the 2026 season in a league-wide win-total analysis. That represents a significant decline from the Patriots’ 14-3 finish in Mike Vrabel’s first season as head coach. It also would be enough to keep New England firmly in the playoff race and within striking distance of the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East.
Mock’s model gives the Patriots a 68.2% chance to make the playoffs and a 6.2% chance to win the Super Bowl. Buffalo remains the slight favorite in the division, with a projection of 10.7 victories and a 73.4% postseason probability.
Model Predicts Tight Patriots-Bills Race
The gap between New England and Buffalo is only 0.4 projected victories. That suggests the AFC East race could be decided by the two head-to-head meetings between the Patriots and Bills. New England will visit Buffalo in Week 4 before hosting the rematch at Gillette Stadium in Week 13.
The Patriots split their two games with Buffalo last season. New England earned a statement road win in the first meeting before suffering a painful loss at home. The Patriots built a 21-0 lead in that rematch but were outscored 35-10 the rest of the way as Buffalo ended their 10-game winning streak.
Vrabel’s team eventually recovered to capture the division and advance to Super Bowl LX. The model expects New England and Buffalo to remain the only serious AFC East contenders. Miami and New York are projected to finish well behind the division’s top two teams.
The Patriots’ 10.3-win projection also exceeds the 9.5-game total offered by several sportsbooks entering the season.
New England’s Roster Looks Better On Paper
Some regression should be expected after the Patriots tied the NFL record for the largest single-season improvement. New England went from 4-13 in 2024 to 14-3 in 2025. It won the AFC East for the first time since 2019 and defeated the Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans and Denver Broncos during its run to the Super Bowl.
The Patriots also faced a favorable schedule that helped accelerate their turnaround. This season’s path appears much more demanding. New England must face Seattle, Buffalo, Kansas City, Denver, Green Bay and Detroit, among other potential contenders.
The roster, however, might be more equipped to handle that schedule. New England acquired A.J. Brown to give Drake Maye an elite No. 1 receiver. Brown’s arrival could improve an offense that struggled to generate enough explosive plays against Seattle in the Super Bowl.
The Patriots also added veteran receiver Romeo Doubs and guard Alijah Vera-Tucker. They used their first-round pick on Utah offensive tackle Caleb Lomu and selected Illinois edge rusher Gabe Jacas in the second round.
Those moves addressed several of the roster’s most obvious weaknesses.
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Drake Maye Remains Patriots’ Biggest Reason For Optimism
The model’s favorable outlook begins with Maye. New England’s quarterback emerged as one of the NFL’s best young players during his second season. He earned second-team All-Pro honors and led the Patriots to their first Super Bowl appearance of the post-Tom Brady era.
Maye now enters Year 3 with a significantly improved collection of receivers. Brown’s ability to win against top cornerbacks should make life easier for the rest of the offense. It also gives Maye the type of physically dominant target the Patriots lacked during their Super Bowl loss.
A 10- or 11-win season technically would represent regression for New England. It would not necessarily mean the Patriots became a worse team. The schedule is more difficult, and opponents no longer will underestimate Vrabel’s group. New England also will be measured against the standard created by an extraordinary 2025 run.
The Athletic’s model expects the Patriots to remain a playoff team despite those challenges. It also suggests Buffalo should prepare for another season-long fight for the AFC East.
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