The Detroit Lions finally unveiled their initial 53-man roster Sunday night, which means it is time to settle another question:
Who came closest to predicting it?
After comparing 11 complete final roster predictions from writers covering the Lions against Detroit’s actual initial 53, three writers finished tied at the top.
Erik Schlitt of Pride of Detroit, Colton Pouncy of The Athletic and Don Drysdale of Detroit Sports Nation each correctly predicted 49 of the Lions’ 53 players.
That works out to an impressive 92.45% accuracy rate.
Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press finished just behind the leaders, correctly predicting 48 of Detroit’s 53 players, good for 90.57% and a tie for fourth place with Adam Stark.
Three Writers Tie for Best Lions 53-Man Roster Prediction
Three Writers Tie for Best Lions 53-Man Roster Prediction
Detroit Lions 53-Man Prediction Standings
For this comparison, writers received one correct pick for every player they projected onto the active 53 who actually appeared on Detroit’s initial active roster. Players placed on IR, PUP or NFI were not counted as members of the 53.
Record: 2-1Division: 0-0Conference: No. 5Streak: W2
Season 2026
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Rank Writer Correct Accuracy
1T Erik Schlitt — Pride of Detroit 49/53 92.45%
1T Colton Pouncy — The Athletic 49/53 92.45%
1T Don Drysdale — Detroit Sports Nation 49/53 92.45%
4T Dave Birkett — Detroit Free Press 48/53 90.57%
4T Adam Stark — Roundtable Sports 48/53 90.57%
6T Jeremy Reisman — Pride of Detroit 47/53 88.68%
6T Will Rock — Detroit Football Journal 47/53 88.68%
6T Candace Pedraza — SideLion Report 47/53 88.68%
9T Nolan Bianchi — The Detroit News 46/53 86.79%
9T Jeff Risdon — Detroit Lions Podcast 46/53 86.79%
11 Mike Payton — A to Z Sports 45/53 84.91%
Detroit’s official roster breakdown confirms the unusual construction that created many of the misses: five running backs, only four wide receivers, three tight ends and nine offensive linemen.
On defense, Detroit kept 11 defensive linemen, six linebackers and 10 defensive backs while Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph opened the season on Reserve/PUP.
Schlitt, Pouncy and Drysdale Miss the Same Four
Here is where this gets strange.
The three writers tied for first did not simply finish with identical scores. They missed the exact same four players.
Schlitt, Pouncy and Drysdale all projected these four players onto Detroit’s 53:
All four were cut.
Detroit instead kept:
Jabari Small
Jackson Meeks
Eric O’Neill
Mekhi Wingo
That left all three sitting at 49-for-53.
Drysdale’s final Detroit Sports Nation prediction came after evaluating Detroit’s biggest remaining roster battles and Saturday’s preseason finale against Indianapolis.
Schlitt’s final Pride of Detroit projection arrived at the same final score.
The Players Who Fooled Almost Everybody
Jabari Small takes the prize.
Not one of the 11 writers in this comparison projected Small to make Detroit’s initial roster.
0-for-11.
Detroit surprised everyone by keeping five running backs: Gibbs, Pacheco, Vaki, Saylors and Small.
Three cuts created the opposite kind of consensus failure.
All 11 predictions had Greg Dortch, Tyler Conklin and Nick Whiteside making the roster.
Detroit released all three.
Chris Smith was nearly as universal. 10 of 11 projections had him making the team.
Then there was Eric O’Neill, who went the other direction. Only one of the 11 writers correctly projected him onto the roster.
Mekhi Wingo was another tricky call. Only two of 11 had him making it, with Birkett among those who got it right.
Those are the decisions that separated a good prediction from a great one.
Everybody knew Jared Goff, Penei Sewell, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Aidan Hutchinson and Jack Campbell were making this football team.
The final five or six spots were where the prediction contest was actually won.
One Big Name Still Missing
There is still one notable Lions writer missing from the standings: Justin Rogers of Detroit Football Network.
Rogers released his final 53-man prediction, but we still do not have access to his complete list of 53 players. Without every selection, there is no fair way to assign him a score.
So until that projection becomes available, he remains unranked.
For now, the top of the leaderboard belongs to three writers:
Erik Schlitt: 49/53 — 92.45%
Colton Pouncy: 49/53 — 92.45%
Don Drysdale: 49/53 — 92.45%
Birkett and Stark were right behind them at 48-for-53.
Predicting 49 of 53 sounds easy when the roster is sitting in front of you.
Doing it before Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell start making phone calls?
Not so much.
Drafted with AI assistance, edited and fact-checked by DSN staff.
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