Steelers safety Jabrill Peppers celebrates as Baltimore Ravens place kicker Tyler Loop reacts to his missed field goal during the fourth quarter Jan. 4 in Pittsburgh. (AP)
At the outset of the 2025 NFL season, FanDuel had the New England Patriots as plus-3500 longshots to win the AFC. The Seattle Seahawks were at plus-2700 to win the NFC.
Yet those were the two teams that played each other in the Super Bowl.
Indeed, last year’s NFL campaign was anything but predictable. Based on my 2025predictions, no one knows that better than me.
But traditions exist for a reason, and I can’t punt on this one despite getting burned last year.
As is always the case, we launch our first “Friday Football Footnotes” of the year with our annual predictions post. And I guarantee 2026 will be better.
Because after last year, could it really go worse?
• At this time last year, I told you that the 2025 Steelers would go 9-8 and be the last team kicked out of the playoffs as the Baltimore Ravens would win the AFC North.
I was a Tyler Loop shank of a field goal away from being exactly right.
THE RAVENS KICK IS NO GOOD AND THE STEELERS ARE PLAYOFF-BOUND. pic.twitter.com/cIVq2TPKwp
— NFL (@NFL) January 5, 2026
As it turns out, that actually may have been one of my better picks.
This year, I see the Steelers becoming a very different edition of exactly the same team. Mike McCarthy will improve the offense. His game planning and play calling will balance out another year of Aaron Rodgers’ aging. The addition of Rico Dowdle, Michael Pittman Jr. and Germie Bernard should help the offense, while the flip-flopped offensive line alignment leaves me uncertain.
Defensively, Patrick Graham will make his group different as defensive coordinator. I’m not sure if he’ll make it better. And I’m certain he can’t make Jalen Ramsey, Cam Heyward and T.J. Watt any younger.
Let me phrase it this way: I have more faith in the Steelers being exactly the same by season’s end than I do the Bengals or Ravens being substantially better.
So I’ve got the Steelers winning the AFC North at 10-7. Maybe 9-8.
OK, split the difference. Steelers win the North at 9-7-1.
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• Elsewhere in the AFC North, the potential exists for the Bengals to be vastly improved. But injury or ineptitude usually gets in the way with that franchise, and I’ve got them as an eight- or nine-win team.
I like the hire of Jesse Minter to replace John Harbaugh in Baltimore. But asking him to win 10 or 11 games as rookie head coach — especially if Lamar Jackson or Derek Henry should go down for a few games — is a tough ask.
I’ve got Baltimore losing out to the Steelers and claiming second place in the division by a game or by a tiebreaker.
As for the Cleveland Browns, well, they’re hosting Pittsburgh on a Thursday night again (Oct. 1), so I know they won’t go winless. But I still don’t expect much. Cleveland will bring up the rear in the division again at under 6½ wins.
• For the rest of the AFC, I usually never have faith in the Los Angeles Chargers, but I do this year. I’ll pick them to win a murderous AFC West Division.
I’m calling Buffalo as the AFC East winner, swapping spots with the Patriots. New England will claim the top wild card with at least 10 or 11 wins.
Houston will overtake Jacksonville in the AFC South. The Jaguars and Broncos tumble out of the playoff picture. Baltimore and Kansas City scrape their way in as nine-win teams.
• In the NFC East, I think Philadelphia is worse than it was a year ago. I think every other team in that division will be better, but the Eagles still win it with nine or 10 victories.
The West is brutal again. The Los Angeles Rams will win it; Seattle will have a chance to defend its Super Bowl crown as a wild card.
Detroit is going to have a surprise bounce-back season, playing a last-place schedule and winning a somewhat inflated NFC North. Tampa will claim the South as it should have done a year ago.
San Francisco (or maybe Chicago) and Dallas will be the two other wild cards with the Seahawks.
• The Rams are the hot choice in the NFC, and there isn’t a lot explanation necessary as to why. A really good coach and too many good players. They’ll win the NFC as plus-290 favorites.
The Bills have the shortest AFC Championship odds at plus-500, according to DraftKings. I get it. That’s somehow safe and completely unlikely to happen all at once.
Baltimore feels significantly overvalued at plus-520. The Chiefs are next at plus-780.
C’mon. That’s just “Patrick Mahomes comeback” money flooding in and Swifty helium talkin’.
The Chargers sitting at fourth on the odds board at plus-830 feels oddly appropriate to me. The Chargers are a franchise I always bet against. It’s an organization that never seizes the moment. But this year I think the moment finds them.
Yup. I’ll say it. It’s going to be an all-Los Angeles Super Bowl at SoFi Stadium in L.A.
And we are all going to die a little bit inside when it happens.
Rams 31, Chargers 17, and Myles Garrett concusses Matthew Stafford by wildly swinging his helmet during the postgame celebration.
LISTEN: Jeff Erickson of RotoWire has last-minute fantasy football draft tips for your Labor Day Weekend drafts.