Dec 28, 2025; Portland, Oregon, USA; Boston Celtics guard Hugo Gonzalez (28) celebrates after making a three-point basket during the second half against the Portland Trail Blazers at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-Imagn Images
Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-Imagn Images
Every year before the season starts, breakout candidates are everywhere. Lottery picks who already put up 15 a night, young starters who already have the ball glued to their hands, guys who have been the talk of the league since they came in as a high draft pick.
These aren’t Cooper Flagg, Stephon Castle, Amen Thompson, or other young players who already have major expectations around them. Some of these players were second-round picks, some barely played last season, and one averaged fewer than four points per game.
Not everybody here is going to become a star, but jumping from 4.0 points to 10.0, from 15 minutes to 28, or from the end of the bench to a starter is still a massive breakout.
These are the 10 players I think have the talent, the opportunity, or simply the right roster situation to make that jump in 2026-27.
10. Sion James
When a second-round rookie plays all 82 games, that tells you something already. Coaches don’t hand out that kind of trust to young guys unless they’re actually helping, and Sion James earned his minutes with defense, size, and the ability to guard multiple players on the court.
The offense was another story. He closed his rookie year at 5.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.0 assists in 22.5 minutes, shooting a rough 37.1% from the field. The three-ball, though, was a different animal at 35.2%, which gives the Hornets a nice asset offensively to build his game around.
James doesn’t need to turn into a guy creating 15 shots a night. At 6-foot-5 and around 220 pounds, his job is to guard wings and guards, crash the glass, keep the ball moving, and knock down the open ones. Now that LaMelo Ball is out of the picture and Coby White and Dennis Schroder will be the main guards, his defense will still be a huge weapon. And a much-needed one.
Finishing at the rim and being more aggressive off the catch are going to make his stats improve, if he can make that adjustment after a rough rookie season. Even a small step forward there and his numbers move up naturally, because the minutes are already sitting there waiting for him. Nine points and four boards is not a stretch at all.
9. Jamir Watkins
The Washington Wizards are coming into 2026-27 loaded with young guys who are going to share the load with the two new superstars, and weirdly enough, that’s exactly why Jamir Watkins might thrive.
AJ Dybantsa, Trae Young, Anthony Davis, and Tre Johnson are going to eat up shots and touches, so Watkins never has to become a high-usage scorer. He can just defend, cut hard, run the floor, fight for boards, and take whatever the defense gives him.
That’s basically what he already did as a shooting guard rookie in one of the worst teams in the league last year. 7.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 steals and 0.5 blocks in only 20.6 minutes. For the 43rd pick, that’s more than solid to prove he belongs in their new and improved rotation.
The three-point shot is what’s holding him back, honestly, as 29.7% is the kind of number defenses can afford to ignore. Push that toward 35% and suddenly his defense becomes a lot harder to keep off the floor.
He doesn’t need a massive offensive leap. Around 11 points, 5 rebounds, and a steal a night with a cleaner jumper, and Watkins turns into a genuinely great 3-and-D young wing this team is still lacking.
8. Johnny Furphy
There’s still a lot we don’t really know about Johnny Furphy, mostly because injuries and a limited role never let him string together real minutes with the Indiana Pacers last season, when they tanked, and he would have gained a massive role.
Which is what makes his rebounding numbers stand out. 4.4 boards in just 18.4 minutes is a strong rate for a 6-foot-8 wing who wasn’t exactly featured. Add 5.1 points, 1.2 assists, and a clean 47.0% from the field, and there’s clearly something here.
The three-point shot needs work, though, because 32.4% isn’t going to cut it if he wants to be a 25-minute-a-night player. For a Pacers squad that is gaining a healthy Tyrese Haliburton and more than ready to reach the playoffs again.
Indiana obviously is known for having multiple perimeter options, and they even beefed up in the offseason, but being a bigger wing who rebounds, sprints in transition, cuts off the ball, and makes teams pay for leaving him open is going to be Furphy’s calling card if he can come back recovered from the ACL injury he suffered in February.
He’s only 21, so there’s time. If that jumper climbs closer to 36% and he stays on the floor, doubling his scoring output is not far-fetched at all.
7. Nique Clifford
The final stretch of last season gave the Sacramento Kings a pretty clear reason to trust Nique Clifford with more. And now that they’re moving into a full-scale rebuild, I think his time might come to shine even brighter.
23 points, five boards, and six assists against the Pelicans. Games of 18, 20, and 24 points sprinkled in during that closing run. That’s a completely different player from the guy who spent most of his rookie year in a minor role.
For the full year, Clifford averaged 8.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.4 assists in 25.1 minutes, still a bit shaky shooting-wise at 41.8% from the field and 33.3% from deep, but he already started 28 games. That matters.
And now the wing rotation just opened up with the Kings looking to inject some youth into this roster. Zach LaVine, Darius Acuff Jr., and Domantas Sabonis are still going to carry most of the offensive load, so Clifford isn’t suddenly turning into option one. But more shots, more chances to handle the ball, and more minutes are all coming.
If the efficiency catches up, 12 to 14 points is very reachable, and honestly, he already showed us what he can do when the ball actually finds his hands.
6. Ryan Kalkbrenner
Shooting 75.3% from the field over a full season sounds almost fake, even when most of the attempts come right at the rim. That’s exactly what Ryan Kalkbrenner did as a rookie.
The Charlotte center averaged 7.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks in only 21.4 minutes. Nothing fancy, as he he screened, rolled, finished lobs, cleaned the glass, and protected the paint. That was the whole job description, and he nailed it.
That simplicity is probably his biggest strength going forward. He doesn’t need plays drawn up for him, and he definitely doesn’t need to develop a three-point shot to be valuable. What the Hornets need from him now is to get stronger and hold up through bigger minutes. Give him 25-27 a night without foul trouble piling up, and the production should follow naturally.
With Ball out of the picture and Naz Reid being his ideal frontcourt partner due to his outside shooting, Kalkbrenner’s inside defense will be huge for this younger, more unproven Hornets team.
5. Gui Santos
The Warriors will need the younger pieces to start carrying more of the regular-season load, plain and simple. After an underwhelming summer where they struck out on every major piece they tried to land, they’ll need a big in-house jump to be competitive.
Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Al Horford, and Kristaps Porzingis are not a group built to grind through 82 games at full speed. That opens a real door for someone like Santos, who already proved last season he can contribute without needing many touches: 9.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.3 assists on a sharp 50.0% from the field and 35.1% from three.
His game just fits next to stars. He cuts, attacks the gaps, rebounds, moves the ball fast, and never kills a possession by over-dribbling. There were flashes of more, too: a 20-point, six-rebound, five-assist game late in the year, going 9-of-13 from the floor. That’s a sign there’s more scoring in there once his role expands.
Golden State doesn’t need 18 a night from him. Give Santos a steady 25-minute role and 12-13 points with 5 boards and 3 assists is very much in play, and that would make him one of their most important young pieces.
4. Cam Spencer
Not many players in the league last season combined elite shooting with real playmaking the way Cam Spencer did. His sample was small and overlooked, but he definitely belongs in the elite tier of shooters for 2026-27.
He shot 44.9% from three and 94.0% from the line, sure, but the number that really jumps out is 5.6 assists per game. Spencer isn’t just a shooter standing in the corner waiting. He can run pick-and-roll, organize a possession, and actually create for others.
And that matters a whole lot more now that Ja Morant is gone. That departure leaves a massive void in Memphis’s backcourt, in both minutes and touches. Ty Jerome surely absorbs a good chunk of that, Scotty Pippen Jr. too, but there’s clearly a bigger role waiting for Spencer as well.
He already put up 11.1 points on 47.3% shooting last season; not a bad floor at all for the No. 53 pick. Give him more than 25 minutes on a consistent basis, and 14 or 15 points with around 6 assists feels realistic. The shooting’s already there. He just needs the role to catch up.
3. Ajay Mitchell
Scoring 13.6 points a night for a 64-win team hits completely different than padding stats on a lottery squad. That’s what makes Ajay Mitchell’s second season so impressive to me.
13.6 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.6 assists, shooting an efficient 48.5% from the field and 87.0% from the line. Under control the whole way, never needing a huge usage rate from a stacked Thunder roster to produce. The problem was always the traffic jam in that rotation.
That should ease up now. Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Isaiah Joe are all gone, and that frees up a chunk of perimeter minutes. Mitchell should be one of the main guys who benefit.
There’s an argument to be made that he has already exploded, and that’d be absolutely fair after almost 14 PPG. Still, I think his best season is yet to come, and with the Thunder losing some key secondary scorers. He’s due for an even bigger breakout.
Oklahoma City still belongs to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, so Mitchell isn’t becoming a first option overnight. But going from 13.6 into the 16-point range with a much bigger bench role would make him one of the better young guards in basketball right now.
2. Scotty Pippen Jr.
Last season basically never got going for Scotty Pippen Jr. A right big toe injury limited him to just 10 games, and he eventually needed surgery back in March. So his 2025-26 numbers are pretty much useless if you’re trying to figure out what he can become this year.
In those 10 games, he still put up 11.4 points and 4.7 assists, but the better reference point is probably 2024-25: 79 games played, 21 starts, 39.7% from three. And the picture around him has completely changed. With Morant gone, Memphis needs someone else to handle the ball for long stretches. Russell will obviously take a big chunk of that, Spencer will get his touches too, but Pippen now has a genuine shot at real starting minutes.
He’s already shown he can pressure the ball on defense, get into the paint, and create for teammates. The only question has always been whether he can do it over a full, healthy 82 games. At 25, this is probably his best shot yet. Stay healthy, and 14 points, 6 assists, and 1.5 steals would make him one of the better surprise guards this season; I’d bet on it.
1. Hugo González
I don’t think there’s another name on this list whose role needs to be as huge as Hugo González’s for the next season. Remember, the Celtics decided to not trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo because they didn’t want to add him to the deal, so he just must take a huge leap.
González averaged only 14.6 minutes as a rookie. He barely handled the ball, didn’t take many shots, and finished at just 3.9 points a game. Easy to write off if you only look at the box score. But it’s also easy to forget the good stuff buried in there. He played 74 games at 19 years old, shot 47.6% from the field, hit 36.2% from three, and grabbed 3.3 rebounds despite playing under 15 minutes a night. For a young wing stuck in a tiny role, that’s genuinely encouraging.
Boston’s offseason just handed him a much bigger opportunity. With Jaylen Brown gone, there are real wing minutes next to Jayson Tatum and Paul George up for grabs. Nobody’s asking González to replace Brown’s scoring because that would be unfair and unrealistic. He just needs to defend, rebound, run, and hit the open ones.
Summer League gave a glimpse that his offensive game might already be further along than the rookie numbers suggest: one game with 17 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists, and another with 24 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists.
That’s exactly why I have him at No. 1. Going from 3.9 points in 14.6 minutes to something like 10 or 11 points in a bigger rotation role is completely realistic, and he already has the size and the defensive chops to stay on the floor even on nights when the shot isn’t falling.
He probably won’t be a star this year. But going from a name nobody knew to a starting-caliber two-way wing on one of the East’s best teams? That’s precisely the kind of jump this list was built to find.