Arsenal have been installed as favourites to win the 2026/27 Champions League by the Opta supercomputer, with Mikel Arteta’s side coming out on top in 20.9% of 10,000 simulations.
The Gunners narrowly lead Bayern Munich, who lifted the trophy in 19.4% of simulations, while Manchester City are a more distant third on 12.3%.
The projection arrives just before Arsenal begin their European campaign away to Napoli on Wednesday night.
Opta’s latest Champions League projections place Arsenal ahead of every other club despite Arteta’s side being handed a more demanding league-phase schedule than last season.
Arsenal given 20.9% Champions League winning chance
Opta’s simulations produced the following leading contenders:
Club Champions League win probability
Arsenal 20.9%
Bayern Munich 19.4%
Manchester City 12.3%
Barcelona 8.2%
Paris Saint-Germain 7.1%
Liverpool 6.1%
Real Madrid 4.4%
That makes Arsenal’s projected chance of winning the competition almost five times greater than Real Madrid’s.
It also represents another indication of how Arsenal’s status in Europe has changed under Arteta.
The Gunners reached last season’s final after becoming the first club to win all eight matches during the Champions League league phase.
Their run eventually ended in heartbreak against Paris Saint-Germain, who won the final on penalties after a 1-1 draw.
Arsenal nevertheless return this season as one of Europe’s established elite rather than outsiders hoping to make a deep run.
That confidence is supported by their remarkable recent record.
As we examined in our look at Arsenal’s 12-match Champions League league-phase winning streak, Arteta’s side have not dropped a point at this stage of the competition since November 2024.
Opta gives Arsenal 93.8% chance of reaching knockouts
Winning the competition is only one part of Opta’s projection.
Arsenal progressed to the knockout rounds in 93.8% of simulations, while they were given an 18.8% chance of finishing top of the league phase.
Bayern actually edge Arsenal when it comes to finishing first during the initial phase, largely because the Gunners have to travel to Munich during their eight-game schedule.
Arsenal’s complete Champions League fixture list for 2026/27 also includes meetings with Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Napoli and Lille.
That means nobody at the Emirates will be treating progression as automatic.
However, Opta currently rates Arsenal as the strongest team in its global Power Rankings, helping explain why Arteta’s side remain marginal favourites over Bayern to win the competition itself.
The first opportunity to justify that status comes in Naples.
Arsenal travel to Italy on Wednesday carrying a 100% domestic record and a 12-game Champions League league-phase winning sequence.
The supercomputer cannot predict what will happen over the next nine months.
But after coming within a penalty shootout of European glory last season, the numbers suggest Arsenal are better placed than anybody to go one step further.
Arsenal expected to renew Kai Havertz contract after flying start
Arsenal expected to renew Kai Havertz contract after flying start
Napoli change Arsenal preparations as Allegri considers defensive switch
Napoli change Arsenal preparations as Allegri considers defensive switch