As we close in on real football, it will get harder and harder to be relentlessly negative about the inferior NFC North teams as we should. For the final preview column of the offseason, I'm going to have a little fun creating some worst case scenarios. No new injuries or anything like that, but what could happen to make these teams have a horrific season?
Vikings
We'll start with the Vikings because it's the easiest - Kyler Murray is bad. This one isn't really even fan fiction, he hasn't been good in years and when he was he was only good for a few months every season. Maybe Kevin O'Connell will get the most out of him, because you know what they always say, small run-first QBs do better in an under center play action downfield passing offense then a spread offense with built-in QB runs. Like he had in Arizona.
If he isn't good and the running backs just stay who they are, over the hill Aaron Jones and that other guy, the run game is done and every defense will play umbrella coverage with a spy on Kyler. Easy. Even if Jordan Addison turns out to be a top-25 receiver and not a disappointment (which he has been a lot of the time in his career) and Jauan Jennings 4.9 40-time turns out to be a fluke, it won't matter.
On defense, each of the past several seasons has looked similar: they come out fast with a new blitz scheme or by pairing the blitz scheme with a coverage concept that no one expects. By mid-way through the season, the new hotness has worn down and the defense starts to have diminishing returns. That's the defense in years where it starts out with good players.
This season, they have one edge rusher who has played well in the past and he weighs less than me. Their best safety was a high school recruit in 2005. Their two star rookie defensive tackles haven't lived up to expectations in training camp.
I'm sure we'll see some new stuff this weekend and Jordan Love may even be challenged by it, but don't expect it to last.
Lions
The main thing for the Lions is the o-line. They moved their only good offensive linemen and the other four are a step away from JAGs. Maybe it'll click, if it doesn't, Jared Goff is the QB who is most affected by pressure in the league.
On the running side, fantasy podcasters all around are so excited for Gibbs to be a workforce back and get all these touches. The guy probably weighs less than 200 pounds. You're telling me the Lions will have the best offense in the league when their QB can't handle pressure with a group of latchkey kids at o-line and Kyler Murray's body double at running back?
The defense is gross. Brian branch is certified good but Kerby Jospeh is less certain. Doesn't matter anyway because both of them are on the pup list. Who knows when they'll return and if they'll be any good.
You start listing off their front-7 with Aidan Hutchingson and Jack Campbell but then quickly have to look for a barf bag. Sure Alim McNeil has flashed in the past and had a good camp against the teams cockamamie interior o-line but Campbell might be the most overrated player in the league and there's no one else! They might end up playing an $8mm off-ball linebacker at edge opposite Hutchinson. Yikes.
Bears
Don't show a Bears fan this column. Based on their twitter interactions this off-season, they're liable to go on a 7-state killing spree.
The case for the Bears being bad is that they were the luckiest team maybe ever last season and they didn't really get better over the off-season.
They dumped DJ Moore and didn't replace him. meanwhile, Luther Burden has a lingering injury and Rome Odunze is meh to begin with.
They didn't bother to acquire a starting caliber NFL left tackle and when their center unexpectedly retired, they traded for Kenny Clark's son to play center. They, undeniably, have a few good pieces on the o-line but they also have two massive holes. For a unit that is typically based on chemistry, you have to think that the performance will be substantially worse this season.
Their RBs have been just ok for a few seasons.
So that's what Caleb Williams has to work with. Everyone keeps talking about the growing he has to do, but did they watch the first two or three quarters of almost every game last season? he made some crazy 4th quarter Brett Favre throws but he also had a lot of stinky first-half performances.
The defense is already bad and they, checks notes, got rid of their best d-tackle to start a rookie 6th-rounder and added a first-round safety who has reportedly "struggled a lot in camp."
At least they're still paying PFF's 106th ranked edge rusher $16mm per year.
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Mike Price is a lifelong Packers fan who recently moved from Utah to Stoughton (a Madison suberb). You can follow him on twitter at @themikeprice.