The 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremony is due to take place on October 26 in London. Who is most likely to win football’s greatest individual prize this year?
Using betting odds taken from Oddschecker, we’ll take a look at the five players who the bookies feel are the most likely to win the Ballon d’Or this year.
With the 30 nominees now having been announced, who will take home the award? Let’s take a look at the top five. Who is your pick?
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
One of the most important components in PSG’s Champions League and Ligue 1 success over the past few years, there aren’t many wingers who’re on Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s level in the world right now.
A wide player who can either function as a technical creator or a direct winger, the Georgian international is amongst the most multi-faceted attacking players in the world right now.
If there is one factor holding Kvaratskhelia back, it was his lack of involvement in the 2026 World Cup. His country, Georgia, did not qualify for the competition – this isn’t necessarily his fault, but it’ll probably prevent him from taking home the trophy.
Rodri
After a difficult couple of years, Rodri is most certainly back to his best. Winning the World Cup and two domestic trophies with Manchester City this year, he’s in with a great shout of winning the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
Possessing a wonderful range of passing and excellent anticipatory skills, Rodri has a peerless ability read the game in the modern age.
Rodri’s failure to win the Premier League title last season will be his biggest downfall in this regard. Still, he remains a very solid contender.
Kylian Mbappe
Football’s biggest superstar, Kylian Mbappe, has not won a Ballon d’Or as of yet. He has only made the podium once, when he came third in 2023, behind Erling Haaland and Lionel Messi.
Once again, we think he’ll go hungry this year – and so do the bookies. Despite this, as third-favourite, he is expected to make the top three for the second time.
Despite leading an impressive individual year in 2026, being the top goalscorer at the World Cup, Mbappe didn’t win a single major trophy – this will surely count against him in the long run.
Lamine Yamal
An incredibly accomplished footballer who can now boast a World Cup victory, it is often easy to forget that Lamine Yamal is just 19 years of age.
Yamal is a very, very strong contender to win this year’s iteration of the award. He came second last year, behind PSG’s Ousmane Dembele.
Sadly, the bookies seem to think that he’ll finish second once again this year. While he was part of the Spain team that won the World Cup, his overall performance at the tournament was a little underwhelming – in eight games, he scored just one goal and racked up a solitary assist.
Harry Kane
Harry Kane is currently the betting favourite to win the Ballon d’Or. This came as a bit of a surprise to us, but it’s easy enough to make sense of.
Right now, the former Tottenham star is probably the best striker in the world. Scoring 36 goals in 31 Bundesliga games and six goals in seven World Cup games, he can’t be touched in terms of pure goalscoring.
He also won the Bundeslida title and the DfB-Pokal in 2026. Yes, he didn’t win the World Cup or the Champions League, but that’s the only real argument you can hold against him.