Apr 17, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) reacts against the Phoenix Suns during the play-in rounds of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Apr 17, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) reacts against the Phoenix Suns during the play-in rounds of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
I think there’s no harder team to predict next season than the Golden State Warriors, because on one hand they still have some pretty nice pieces, but on the other, this roster is incredibly flawed. They finished 37-45 last year, 10th in the West, with the No. 18 offense and No. 17 defense, and everything that could go wrong physically did go wrong. Still, they have Stephen Curry around, which makes it impossible to just write them off.
Jimmy Butler tore his right ACL in January, Moses Moody tore his left patellar tendon in March, Curry played just 43 games, and Kristaps Porzingis suited up for only 32 total between Atlanta and Golden State. Butler’s rehab is still uncertain, so even a January or February return feels more like a hope than a plan Golden State should build the season around.
The offseason was basically the front office saying, “All right, one more run,” after they completely missed on every major star they tried to chase first. Draymond Green, Porzingis, Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton, and Gary Payton II came back, as Brandon Williams and Georges Niang got added to the mix, and the Warriors used the No. 11 pick on Yaxel Lendeborg after his monster senior year at Michigan. I really like some things about this roster, but I think it’s more likely that they end up out of the Play-In race rather than a dark horse for a second-round appearance.
Strengths
1. Stephen Curry Is Still A Superstar
I don’t care that Curry’s 38. How many times are we going to do this dance? Every summer there’s some new reason this is finally the year he falls off, and then the season starts, and he’s still sprinting around like a lunatic, pulling up from 30 feet, sending two defenders into a panic before he’s even crossed half-court. Until the actual basketball tells me he’s done, I’m not signing up to be the guy who calls it early.
Last year was another absurd example. Curry put up 26.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 4.7 assists on 46.8% from the field and 39.3% from three, and made another All-Star team despite knee issues chewing into his season. He was still hoisting 11.3 threes a night and knocking down 4.4 of them, still taking a ridiculous number of hard shots and still making them at an elite clip.
That’s the whole reason I can’t fully rule this team out of anything. Maybe they land eighth, maybe they get bounced in the Play-In, maybe the old roster falls apart again… all of that’s on the table. But if Curry’s healthy come April, I don’t want to see him in a single-elimination game or a series where he catches fire for four straight nights. There aren’t many players left in this league where one absurd shooting stretch can blow up an entire scheme. Curry’s still one of them.
Butler coming back would obviously push the ceiling up, and we’ll get into why that’s complicated later. For now, Curry’s the one thing here I trust without ten asterisks attached to it, and that alone gives Golden State a level of offensive danger most middling teams just don’t have. This roster could have problems everywhere else, and No. 30 can still turn an ugly night into three straight deep makes before the defense even realizes what happened.
2. The Warriors Have More Size Now
This might be my favorite thing about the roster, honestly, because I spent years watching Golden State run out these tiny lineups and wondering how Draymond was supposed to survive 30 minutes a night getting bodied by centers with 40 pounds on him. Now Steve Kerr’s got Porzingis, Horford, Bassey, Green, Lendeborg, and even Niang to pick from depending on what kind of frontcourt he wants to throw out there. It’s almost funny how hard they swung the other way.
Porzingis is obviously the headline piece. He averaged 16.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.2 blocks last season, and even though he only shot 33.8% from three, you know the idea here: a 7-foot-2 guy who can stand 25 feet from the rim changes the math for everybody. Put him next to Draymond, and suddenly Green’s free to screen, pass, cut, and defend without dragging around another non-shooter who lets the opposing center just sit in the paint.
Then there’s Al Horford, who’s somehow 40 years old and still good to log some playoff minutes. He gives them another big man who knows every coverage in the book, can move the ball, and can still step out and shoot it, while Charles Bassey adds more size for whenever Kerr just needs a guy to rebound and bang for 12 minutes. Nobody in that group needs a massive role, and that’s exactly why it works.
I’m also genuinely into Lendeborg as the young piece dropped into all of this. He averaged 15.1 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.2 blocks, and 1.1 steals at Michigan on 52.0/37.0 shooting, won Big Ten Player of the Year, and helped Michigan win the national title. He’s already 23, so I’m not buying some five-year development arc here, but I want him to walk in, play hard defense, rebound, move the ball, and contribute right away.
All of that gives Kerr more flexibility. He can go big with Porzingis, slide Draymond to the five for full-switch lineups, pair Horford next to another center, or run Lendeborg out as the young forward who defends and pushes pace while the vets rest their legs. For a team this old, being able to shift styles is genuinely valuable.
3. Actually A Deep Bench For Once?
Here’s the funny thing about last season: the Warriors were bad overall, but the bench really wasn’t the problem. Golden State outscored opponents 45.0 to 36.6 in bench points per game, so the second unit was actually a real advantage across the year. The issue was that injuries kept yanking guys who were supposed to be starters and shoving everyone else up a spot.
Brandin Podziemski’s the clearest example. He played all 82 games and averaged 13.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, really strong production for a guy who should be your sixth or seventh option, not someone you’re leaning on to keep the offense afloat. I don’t think Podziemski’s about to become an All-Star, but he rebounds, handles it, shoots it, and can start games at times. That’s a genuinely useful option.
Moody was also putting together his best season before that brutal knee injury. He was averaging 12.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.0 steals while shooting 40.1% from three across 60 games, with 151 made threes already banked before his year ended. I have no idea how he’ll look coming back from a torn patellar tendon, but if he gets anywhere close to that form later in the season, Golden State suddenly has another 24-year-old wing who can actually shoot and defend.
And you’ve still got Melton, GP2, Horford, Niang, Lendeborg, Bassey, and Brandon Williams all fighting for minutes behind that. Not every one of those names is great, and a handful are pretty old, but this isn’t a team where Kerr gets to guy No. 8 and starts wondering who’s left. There are legitimate rotation players stacked up here, and that depth should help them absorb regular-season injuries better than they did a year ago.
Weaknesses
1. This Team Is Just Super Old
There’s no cute way around this one. Curry’s 38. Butler turns 37 this month. Draymond’s 36. Horford’s 40. Porzingis is 31 and has basically spent his career on the injury report. You can have all the IQ and playoff experience in the world, but eventually that age will come back to haunt you.
Last season was basically this fear playing out in real time. Curry played 43 games, Butler played 38 before the ACL tear, Porzingis played 32 total (only 15 after landing in Golden State), and Moody, one of the young guys they were counting on, tore his patellar tendon. Even Draymond, who managed 68 games, is heading into Year 15 now, and you can’t realistically ask him to guard every star forward and center in the league for six straight months like it’s 2016 again.
That’s what makes all this nice frontcourt depth look a little different once you start going deeper into it. Horford as your backup center sounds great until you remember he’s 40. Porzingis giving you size sounds great until he’s out three weeks. Butler coming back at 37 and off major knee surgery is scary. There are just too many guys on this roster where “if healthy” has to be the optimistic case.
That’s why I can’t slot the Warriors into the same tier as the younger teams up top in the West. Those teams can run their stars out 70-plus games, survive the back-to-backs, and still have legs in March. Golden State could be managing Curry, Draymond, Porzingis, and Horford’s workloads from Week 1 on. This team might be dangerous when everybody’s available, but that’s a very specific scenario.
2. Nobody Knows How Good Butler Comes Back
This is the thing I push back on hardest whenever somebody says, “Well, they’ve still got Curry and Butler.” Sure, technically. But Butler tore his right ACL on January 19, didn’t have surgery until February, and the latest update had him still in the relatively early stages of getting back on the floor. He might be back around January or February, but assuming he walks in and is instantly the same Jimmy feels way too optimistic to me.
Before the injury, he was still elite. Butler averaged 20.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 1.4 steals on 51.9% shooting, and Golden State was 25-19 when he went down. He was also drawing 7.6 free throw attempts a night, which matters a ton for an offense that otherwise leans almost entirely on Curry’s movement and three-point gravity.
But 37-year-old wings coming off torn ACLs aren’t exactly something I want to bank a season on. Maybe he comes back, looks good by March, and gives them exactly what they need. Or maybe he loses a step of explosion, can’t get downhill as consistently, or needs 25 games just to trust the knee again. Either outcome would be completely normal.
And the stretch without him could get ugly early. Last season, the Warriors scored just 45.0 points in the paint a night while allowing 50.8, and Butler was easily their best guy at forcing his way to the rim and drawing whistles.
3. Where’s The Third Real Scorer In This Team?
Even if Butler comes back and looks like himself, I’ve still got another issue with this roster: who’s actually your third scoring option on a real playoff team? Curry gave them 26.6 a night, Butler was giving them 20.0 before he went down, and then you fall all the way to Podziemski at 13.8. Porzingis averaged 16.7 overall, but that came in just 32 games on 33.8% three-point shooting, so I can’t confidently write his name down for 18 a night and feel good about it.
This is where people get a little too romantic about “depth.” Having eight or nine playable guys is great, but playoff basketball tends to strip things down fast; somebody has to score when Curry’s trapped, and Butler can’t get to his spot. Podziemski’s solid, Moody was trending up before the injury, and Lendeborg looks like a nice prospect, but there isn’t that self-creator the Warriors need now.
All of that puts even more weight on Curry’s shoulders, which is precisely what you don’t want with a 38-year-old superstar. This wasn’t some elite offense sunk purely by bad defense. There were real stretches where scoring got hard the second Curry couldn’t bail everyone out himself.
Curry can still terrify anybody; the frontcourt finally has size, and the rotation’s got better players in it, but somebody other than Curry has to become a reliable scorer every single night. The Warriors aren’t dead, but they’re walking one of the thinnest lines in the league right now.