Five reasons why favored Rams won't win Super Bowl 61 in Los Angeles image
When the Rams won Super Bowl 56, they did it on their home field in Los Angeles. Five years later, with the NFL championship game returning to SoFi Stadium, they are heavily favored to win Super Bowl 61.
There's a lot of love for the Rams to hold up the Lombardi Trophy for a second time in six years. Most sportsbooks have listed them at either +500 or +550, well ahead of the Bills (+1000) and Ravens (+1000). In relation to the Super Bowl 60 champion Seahawks, who beat the Rams in last season's NFC Championship, are fourth (+1200).
The reasons for the Rams' premier preseason odds status are clear. With the trade for edge rusher Myles Garrett to join quarterback Matthew Stafford, they are the first team in NFL history to boast both the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and league MVP on the same roster. Right before the season, Garrett learned he would be playing with three-time DPOY Aaron Donald, who unretired as an all-time great defensive tackle.
Donald joins a three-man front with rising star end Kobie Turner and Poona Ford, coming off a career year at nose tackle. Garrett will rush the passer opposite Byron Young, who had 12 sacks in 2025. The Rams also upgraded their secondary big-time with former Chiefs cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.
The Rams have a potentially dominant defense to go with what Stafford has offensively working behind a top line: wide receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, running backs Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, along with a bevy of impact tight ends. With all that talent and coach Sean McVay, the Rams feel unbeatable to the point that they're getting buzz to pull off a perfect season through the playoffs.
But this is the NFL, where the unexpected often happens and when a team appears too good to be true, it usually is. Given the surprise of Seattle over New England last season, it would be more shocking if the Rams did roll to winning Super Bowl 61.
Here are five real reasons why the Rams' potential dream season can be derailed:
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5 reasons why Rams won't win Super Bowl
Aaron Donald
Matthew Stafford goes back to breaking down
There was reasonable doubt about Stafford going into last season because of serious concerns about his back. He responded by staying fully healthy with the best season of his career to win his first MVP award.
Stafford, however, goes into this season at 38 and will turn 39 a week before Super Bowl 61. When the Rams last missed the playoffs in 2022, they were 5-12 when Stafford missed 9 games. It's difficult to duplicate such numbers as a pocket passer and there's bound to be some more adversity in '26.
The Rams' pass protection can help keep Stafford healthy, but even a natural dropoff will limit the offensive potency. Although McVay is still there to call plays, the loss of Mike LaFleur to the rival Cardinals is underrated.
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The Rams get hit by the injury bug at key positions
Stafford is battling more wear and tear after staying on the field for another full season through the playoffs. The Rams do well to stay light in midweek practices under McVay to preserve players' health. But there's also some luck tied to remaining healthy at key positions and it tends to even out.
For example, the 49ers have had a rash of injuries that have hampered their playoff upside in recent season. That tends to even out and the Rams may not be as fortunate as they need to be, given they have become more of a front-line team with less effective depth on both sides. Everything still needs to fall into place for a Super Bowl winner, even one that looks flawless on paper.
Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald both show real signs of aging
Garrett spent his 20s all with the Browns. The 2017 No. 1 overall pick has been terrific rushing the passer and stopping the run in his recent prime, but he is going through his full season in his 30s and will turn 31 in December.
For context, Donald retired from the Rams after the '23 season, worried about some dropoff from 10 years of dominance. Garrett enters his 10th year and hit his absolute peak with 23 sacks and 33 tackles for loss last season.
Donald turned 35 in May and isn't quite ready for impact from his layoff, as he'll miss Week 1 against the 49ers. Garrett has been very durable but, like Donald, goes hard and intense on every play. The Rams wouldn't have traded for him if he was "fading", but the upgrade might be limited vs. what they would have had in rising Jared Verse, sent to the Browns in exchange for Garrett.
Garrett and Donald joining some young front seven stars might scream impossible to beat, but it's also improbable they will consistently shut down the league's best offenses.
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The Rams can't survive the rough NFC West and the tough conference competition
The Seahawks are the reigning champs. The 49ers have been to the playoffs in five of the past seven seasons, winning the division three times and getting to the NFC championship game four times. Despite some offseason losses in Seattle and lingering injuries in San Francisco, those teams won't let up in the division race. The Seahawks and 49ers went a combined 26-8 to sandwich the Rams in the 2025 standings.
There's little room for error there, so the Rams can win the division and position themselves with a top-two seed to facilitate their path in the NFC playoffs. Outside of the division, the Rams also play the Broncos, Eagles, Bills, Chargers, Packers, Chiefs and Cowboys. The Rams also don't play the 49ers or Seahawks on the road until December, when they also face the Seahawks twice in three weeks, Week 16 and Week 18.
There are challenges early, starting with the 49ers in Australia in Week 1 and it doesn't let up, including that gauntlet after the Week 11 bye. The Rams will be well battle-tested for the playoffs, but that also means it will be difficult to earn that No. 1 seed and all-important lone bye to avoid hostile winter environments in the playoffs.
Puka Nacua's off-field concerns manifest into missed time
Although there's some indication Nacua won't be facing league discipline for troubling reports of an incident, the review continues with no official ruling yet. Although Nacua avoided landing on the Commissioner's Exempt List, once due diligence is done, there's still a chance he draws a multiple-game suspension. The Rams are hoping Nacua hasn't done or will do anything worthy of a ban.
Nacua has done well to shake injuries since missing five games with a knee sprain in 2024. Last year he missed one game with an ankle ailment. This August, he battled a groin pull. The cumulative concern has lessened but the Rams know just how important his presence in the passing game is to the entire offense. A curveball with his availability, more so than that of Davante Adams, can also ruin best-laid game plans.
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