Our resident FPL expert does the maths to find out whether you should captain Haaland, Fernandes - or someone else entirely for Gameweek 4.
Nine times out of 10, picking out your Fantasy Premier League captain is a relatively straightforward decision – just give the armband to either Erling Haaland or Bruno Fernandes. If you’ve got both, give it to the guy with the easier fixture. Job done. For Gameweek 4, however, it’s a little bit trickier than that.
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Sunday’s Manchester Derby pits Haaland and Fernandes against one another, meaning that neither of FPL’s most expensive assets have anything that can fairly be described as an easy game. So which of the pair is more likely to rack up a high score, and should you look elsewhere for this week’s captain? Our resident expert is here to dig into the stats…
Will Erling Haaland or Bruno Fernandes score more FPL points this weekend?
Erling Haaland has five goals in his last three appearances for Manchester Cityplaceholder image
Erling Haaland has five goals in his last three appearances for Manchester City | Getty Images
If you want to stick with the conventional approach and give the captaincy to either Haaland or Fernandes, you’re essentially debating whether to go for the player with the higher ceiling or the higher floor. Haaland is perhaps the most reliable scorer in the FPL right now – Fernandes, meanwhile, has had a boom-or-bust start to the new season.
The Manchester United captain scored a massive 23 points against Ipswich Town in Gameweek 2 but has blanked twice already. Given that he’s a midfielder, he has a higher ceiling than a forward like Haaland due to the extra points available for goals and a potential clean sheet, but there seems to be a much higher chance that he’ll fizzle out.
It doesn’t help Fernandes’ case that Manchester United have started the season is somewhat unconvincing fashion – but Fernandes himself has still been putting up some solid underlying numbers. He’s averaging just over 0.75xG and a goal per game (remember he takes the penalties) and while his xA isn’t quite as impressive, an average of 2.7 key passes per match is, although he was going at 3.9 across a stellar 2025/26 season.
On average, Fernandes’ expected outcomes suggest that he’s going to average 6-7 points per match before bonuses, although the ‘real’ number is probably a little higher thanks to the low rate at which the chances he’s created are being converted. That 23-point haul is perhaps very slightly overselling what he’s been doing so far those season, but his three-game average seems to stand up.
Haaland, meanwhile, blanked on the opening weekend but has scored five goals in six games since, including his brace against Porto in the Champions League. If we add the European stats to his Premier League numbers, he’s bagged those five goals from 0.95xG per game.
At his current expected goal involvement and scoring rate, he’s running at a fraction over Fernandes’ expected FPL points per game – based purely on the 2026/27 data we have so far - but home advantage could easily cancel that edge out. All of which is a complex way to suggest that the maths tell us that Fernandes v Haaland is pretty much a coin flip, with both players tracking for close to 7 points per game on average before bonus points are factored in.
Not very helpful, on the face of it, but remember Fernandes will have the higher ceiling in an even game with greater potential for scoring. Haaland is simply more likely to do something which gets points, all things being even. The decision comes down to your opinion of how Sunday’s game will unfold, and therefore which player is more likely to pick up bonus points.
In my opinion, that’s Haaland. Based on what we’ve seen so far, Manchester City remain quite a long way ahead of their cross-city rivals and that should give Haaland a definite edge. Alternatively, of course, you could pick a different captain entirely…
Should you captain Alexander Isak on FPL in Gameweek 4?
The data suggests that Alexander Isak could be a strong captaincy pick for Gameweek 4placeholder image
The data suggests that Alexander Isak could be a strong captaincy pick for Gameweek 4 | Getty Images
There are a few other tempting alternatives floating around outside of the two Manchester teams we normally get our captain from – Cole Palmer, João Pedro and Alexander Isak, in particular, demand attention.
Chelsea’s home game against Hull City looks like a tempting fixture to target. Although the visitors are the only Premier League team who haven’t conceded a goal yet, the stats suggest that won’t hold up for much longer – they ‘should’ have shipped at least five so far, according to the xG model. And Chelsea have been scoring for fun.
But neither Palmer nor João Pedro have been putting up stats to rival a player like Haaland so far. Leaving EFL Cup games out (it’s debatable but I feel like they’re harder to balance against league fixtures than meaningful Champions League matches), they’re both well behind the more usual captaincy choices – Palmer is going at 0.35xG and 0.12xA per game, João Pedro at 0.62xG and 0.05xA.
That means that you have to believe that playing Hull at home is around 50% more likely to generate scoring chances than playing Manchester United away in order to justify picking João Pedro over Haaland. The maths simply don’t work out otherwise. And when you consider that Hull’s total xG against is less than 20% higher than United’s, it’s hard to justify that belief, especially given that United have been shipping goals and chances against theoretically weaker sides.
That leaves Isak, for the relatively small percentage of players fortunate enough to own him as he finally finds his form at Liverpool. He’s up to three goals and an assist in four Premier League or Champions League games and plays Fulham at home, the team with the second worst defence of the season so far based on xG. The numbers say that playing Fulham should be almost exactly 50% better than playing Manchester United away.
Isak is running at 0.82xG per match, about 15% worse than Haaland – but fixture difficulty suggests that he’ll make that difference up with change to spare. If you’re one of Isak’s owners or are considering signing him this week, then the data points to the idea that making the Swede your captain is a smart move. If you don’t have Isak, then Haaland appears to be the best option, even ahead of Chelsea’s best players.
Of course, the sample size I’m basing these maths on is very small and some of the data could end up being bad - Fulham’s defence may well be much better over time than it has been so far, for instance - so it’s perfectly reasonable to base some of your decisions on vibes and opinion. The raw data so far, however, backs up Isak as the best pick, Haaland as a safe bet, and still suggests that Fernandes is a perfectly sound choice as captain if you think that Manchester United will make a game of it at Old Trafford.