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Last weekend delivered 19 goals, but its biggest lesson was that scorelines can mislead. Chelsea created 3.60 xG against Aston Villa but scored only once; Everton created more than Crystal Palace and still lost. At the other end, London City’s 2–1 win over Manchester United gave their ambitious rebuild an immediate lift, while Liverpool and Tottenham scored seven goals between them. The opening weekend gave us plenty of statements, but few certainties.
Matchweek 2 gives us the first chance to test those opening-week signals. London City must now back up their opening win in a tricky derby at West Ham. Chelsea travel to United needing to turn their dominance into goals, while Liverpool v Tottenham tests how much of either side’s attacking start carries into a tighter contest. Aston Villa, after frustrating Chelsea, now try to do the same to champions Manchester City.
_Sat 12 Sep, 12:45 · Chigwell Construction Stadium_
> **Model:** West Ham 20% · Draw 31% · London City 50%
> **Most likely scorelines:** 0–1 (15.0%) · 1–1 (14.0%) · 0–0 (14.0%)
London City were unbeaten in last season’s two league meetings with West Ham, but their trip to Dagenham was far from straightforward. They led through Jana Fernández before Oona Siren’s superb volley earned West Ham a 1–1 draw. London City had the better of the underlying numbers—1.20 xG to 0.25—but still left with only a point. That is the warning as they return to Dagenham in Matchweek 2.
Our model makes London City favourites, but this looks far from straightforward. Their 50% win probability gives them a clear edge, while the 31% draw probability reflects the possibility of another tight contest. London City arrive with confidence after beating Manchester United 2–1 on opening weekend; West Ham need a response after their 3–1 defeat at Tottenham. The challenge for London City is to turn their stronger attacking threat into a result this time.
> **STAT TO WATCH**
> **0.25–1.20 xG · 1–1 scoreline**
> West Ham took a point from the last home meeting despite creating very little. London City produced far more attacking threat but could not make it count. Saturday tests whether they can do so this time.
_Sun 13 Sep, 12:00 · Progress With Unity Stadium_
> **Model:** Manchester United 29% · Draw 32% · Chelsea 40%
> **Most likely scorelines:** 1–1 (15.0%) · 0–0 (12.0%) · 0–1 (11.0%)
Chelsea took four points from the two league meetings with United last season, drawing 1–1 at Leigh before winning 1–0 at Stamford Bridge in May. But this fixture now comes with a very different opening-week contrast. Chelsea left their 1–1 draw with Aston Villa frustrated after creating 3.60 xG; United lost 2–1 at London City after producing only 0.25 xG. One side needs its pressure to become goals, the other needs to find a route to goal at all.
Our model gives Chelsea the edge, but only narrowly. A 32% draw probability—and 1–1 as the most likely scoreline—shows how competitive it expects this to be. Chelsea will look to turn last week’s chance creation into goals; United need a much stronger attacking display than they produced at London City. Last season’s 1–1 at this ground is also a reminder that United can make this fixture difficult for Chelsea.
> **STAT TO WATCH**
> **3.60 xG · 0.25 xG**
> Chelsea produced Matchweek 1’s highest xG total; United were at the other end of the scale. The question on Sunday is whether Chelsea can turn that dominance into goals—and whether United can offer far more going forward.
_Sun 13 Sep, 14:00 · St Helens Stadium_
> **Model:** Liverpool 41% · Draw 33% · Tottenham 26%
> **Most likely scorelines:** 1–1 (15.0%) · 0–0 (14.0%) · 1–0 (14.0%)
Last season’s meetings were split: Tottenham won 2–1 in north London, then Liverpool won 2–0 at St Helens. But Liverpool’s home victory was far tighter than the score suggests. It was still goalless after 90 minutes before Mia Enderby struck twice in stoppage time. That is the recent history behind a fixture that looks balanced again.
Both sides arrive with opening-week momentum. Liverpool began with a 4–0 win at Charlton; Tottenham beat West Ham 3–1. Those results brought seven goals between them, but this should tell us more about how much of that attacking threat carries into a much tighter contest. Our model leans Liverpool at home, yet the 33% draw probability—and 1–1 as the likeliest scoreline—underline just how finely balanced this looks.
> **STAT TO WATCH**
> **90+4 · 90+5**
> Enderby’s two stoppage-time goals settled Liverpool’s last home meeting with Spurs after 90 goalless minutes. With the model again expecting a tight game, patience may matter just as much this time.
_Sun 13 Sep, 18:30 · Villa Park_
> **Model:** Aston Villa 18% · Draw 24% · Manchester City 58%
> **Most likely scorelines:** 1–1 (12.0%) · 1–2 (10.0%) · 0–2 (10.0%)
Manchester City demolished Villa 6–1 in December, but the return at Villa Park was a different story. Villa held the champions to 0–0 in March and in fact edged the xG, 1.57 to 1.03. Their opening-week draw at Chelsea carried the same message: Villa may not dominate the ball, but they have become very difficult to break down and very capable of keeping a heavyweight within reach.
City still arrive as clear favourites after beginning their title defence with a 3–1 win over Birmingham. But Villa’s opening draw at Chelsea is another reminder that this may not be straightforward. City should control territory and create the greater volume of chances; Villa’s challenge is to absorb that pressure, stay level deep into the game and make their moments count. A 58% City win probability gives the champions a strong edge, but leaves plenty of room for Villa to frustrate them again.
> **STAT TO WATCH**
> **0–0 · 1.57–1.03 xG**
> Villa held City at Villa Park in March and carried a genuine attacking threat of their own. That is the template they will try to repeat.
_Sun 13 Sep, 14:00 · St Andrew’s @ Knighthead Park_
> **Model:** Birmingham City 22% · Draw 31% · Brighton 46%
> **Most likely scorelines:** 1–1 (14.0%) · 0–1 (14.0%) · 0–0 (13.0%)
Birmingham lost 3–1 at Manchester City, but their return to the top flight was more competitive than the scoreline suggests. They created 13 shots and 1.22 xG against the champions, showing enough attacking threat to suggest they can cause Brighton problems at home. Brighton, meanwhile, lost 1–0 to Arsenal in Arturo Ruiz’s first match in charge—a narrow defeat that gave the new manager a solid defensive platform, but little attacking reward.
Our model gives Brighton the edge, but this looks far from straightforward. Birmingham have a 53% chance of avoiding defeat, showing just how competitive the model expects this game to be. Brighton will want control and patience; Birmingham have already shown enough at Manchester City to believe this is a genuine opportunity for their first point—or more—back in the WSL.
> **STAT TO WATCH**
> **13 shots · 1.22 xG**
> Birmingham produced both against the champions. If they carry the same attacking threat into their first home game, Brighton may have a real contest on their hands.
_Sun 13 Sep, 14:00 · Goodison Park_
> **Model:** Everton 50% · Draw 31% · Charlton 18%
> **Most likely scorelines:** 1–0 (16.0%) · 0–0 (15.0%) · 1–1 (13.0%)
Everton may have left VBS Community Stadium with nothing last weekend, but that defeat was not as damaging as the scoreline suggests. They created more than Crystal Palace—1.04 xG to 0.71, but lost 1–0. Charlton had a far more difficult return to the WSL: they were beaten 4–0 by Liverpool after creating just 0.08 xG. So both sides arrive needing a response, but for very different reasons.
Our model makes Everton favourites, though not by a huge margin. The 31% draw probability reflects an Everton side that still need to convert their good spells into goals, against a Charlton team that will need to be far more organised and resistant than they were at the Valley. Being at home gives Everton the edge; the question is whether they can turn last weekend’s encouraging performance into their first points.
> **STAT TO WATCH**
> **1.04–0.71 xG · 0–1 result**
> Everton created the better chances at Palace but still lost. Against Charlton, that performance level needs to bring a result.
_Sun 13 Sep, 14:45 · Emirates Stadium_
> **Model:** Arsenal 76% · Draw 18% · Crystal Palace 6%
> **Most likely scorelines:** 2–0 (17.0%) · 1–0 (15.0%) · 3–0 (12.0%)
Both teams began their 2026-27 campaign with a 1–0 win. The similarity ends there. Arsenal controlled their victory at Brighton, creating 1.32 xG to the hosts’ 0.70. Crystal Palace, on the other hand, beat Everton while producing less than their opponents, 0.71 xG to 1.04. Palace showed they can stay disciplined and take a moment when it comes; Arsenal showed they can control a match away from home.
Our model makes Arsenal an overwhelming favourite for this one. Palace’s opening clean sheet gives them something to build on, but the Emirates is a far more demanding test of that resistance. Arsenal should establish territory early and create a much larger volume of chances. Palace’s challenge is to keep the scoreline alive long enough for their efficiency and confidence from opening day to matter.
> **STAT TO WATCH**
> **1.32–0.70 xG · 0.71–1.04 xG**
> Arsenal won their opener by controlling the chances; Palace won theirs without doing so. Sunday tests whether Palace can make the same approach work against the league’s strongest favourites.