**Advantage Buccaneers: Run Defense**
Cincinnati has one of the most impressive collections of offensive talent in the NFL when the whole crew is healthy, and that includes underrated running back Chase Brown, who has averaged almost exactly 1,000 rushing yards per season over the past two years. However, the Bengals' rushing attack as a whole ranked 29th in the NFL last year, gaining just 93.6 yards per game. If Burrow can guide his squad to more early-game leads in 2026, there may be more opportunities to get that ground game going, but for now this looks like an advantage on paper for the Buccaneers, whose run defense ranked fifth in the league last year with 99.1 yards allowed per outing. Obviously, last season's numbers don't guarantee the Bucs will be stout against the run in 2026, but it's also worth noting that this was not a one-year spike. Since Todd Bowles took over as the team's defensive play-caller in 2019, the Buccaneers have allowed the fewest rushing yards in the entire NFL over a seven-year span. In addition, Tampa Bay made an effort to get bigger and stronger up front in the offseason with such additions as A'Shawn Robinson and Rakeem Nuñez-Roches.
**Advantage Bengals: Red Zone Offense**
The Buccaneers will be hoping to drastically improve their red zone results on defense in 2026, but if there is anything like a repeat of last year's numbers this is probably the biggest statistical mismatch in Sunday's game. Even without a full season from Burrow, Cincinnati ranked second in the NFL in red zone touchdown efficiency, finding the end zone on 66.7% of their incursions inside the 20. The Buccaneers' defense, meanwhile, took the 32nd spot on defense by allowing a touchdown on 69.8% of their opponents' red zone drives. When their opponents got into goal-to-go situations, the Bucs were only able to keep three out of 24 opportunities out of the end zone.
**X-Factor: Bucs' Pass Rush**
The players facing the most significant Week One challenge on Tampa Bay's defense are probably starting outside corners Zyon McCollum and Jacob Parrish. The Bucs are very confident in both cover men but even the stickiest corners in the league have to work very hard to slow down the Bengals' wide receiver duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, particularly since their quarterback displays pinpoint accuracy and can complete passes even against tight coverage. The solution for the Buccaneers could be a more robust pass rush in 2026, the creation of which was the team's top priority during the spring. The Bucs are very excited about a revamped edge rush group that now includes Yaya Diaby, Rueben Bain Jr., Al-Quadin Muhammad and David Walker, and are hopeful that a full season from Calijah Kancey will ramp up the inside pressure as well. If the Buccaneers can speed up the process for Burrow, it could make things at least somewhat easier for the cover men on the back end.