In the early 1800s, a French scientist named Pierre-Simon Laplace created a demon. He thought that if he knew the location and momentum of every particle in the universe, he would be able to predict the future. He called his theory Laplace’s Demon.
The NBA has some elements of causal determinism to it as well. Instead of particles, the NBA has players. And instead of momentum, it has plays. Of course, the definitive play in the NBA remains the pick and roll, no matter what Erik Spoelstra has to say about it. So can the upcoming Toronto Raptors’ season be predicted by understanding the nuances of every Raptors’ pick-and-roll pairing?
What this article presupposes is: Maybe?
1. Handler: Kawhi Leonard; Screener: Immanuel Quickley
Let’s reverse engineer Toronto’s would-be best pick-and-roll pairing. Kawhi Leonard projects to be Toronto’s best scorer next season. Last season he averaged 27.9 points per game, shot 56.9 percent on 2-point shots, attempted almost as many pull-up triples (3.6) per game as the entire Raptors’ roster (5.0), and shot better on those pull-up triples (37.9 percent) than anyone in the league at that volume not named Jamal Murray or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
He was, to engage in hyperbole, a good scorer. So Toronto’s best pick-and-roll pairing should have him with the ball in his hands. And Leonard is at his best in those situations with a guard screener. He doesn’t drive all the way to the rim that much these days, and he likes to operate in the mid-range or transition pick and rolls to the post. That is all best accomplished by facing a guard defender in a switch. Leonard doesn’t play too fast. He gets to his spots and puts the ball in the net. How to force a switch? By making sure his screener is a devastating shooting threat.
Meanwhile, Quickley is Toronto’s best shooting threat outside of Leonard himself, and his activity in the screen would force decisions from defenders. But he does need better screencraft. His shot prep has to improve massively, his readiness to shoot before the pass comes to him. If he can make better contact and pop into empty space with better timing and intention, he could turn the Leonard-Quickley pick-and-roll duo into an easy 1.2 or 1.3 points-per-possession set.
2. Handler: Scottie Barnes; Screener: Jakob Poeltl (?)
Even with Leonard in town, Barnes remains Toronto’s best passer and decision-maker. And in the playoffs last year, his scoring leaped to 24.1 per game on the back of a huge drive rate and near-60-percent accuracy from the short midrange. If Toronto is going to have a strong offence, Barnes needs to continue to have the ball in his hands. How can the Raptors best weaponize Barnes’ passing in the pick and roll?
The Raptors don’t want switches against Barnes. They want him getting downhill, as he is perhaps the single best passer in the NBA when he’s on the move in the middle of the floor. Jakob Poeltl creates the best contact on the team as a screener. Defences can still try to switch, or even simply duck under, but it would behoove the Raptors to still find a way to make this pairing work. In past seasons, the Raptors used third screeners in Spain pick and rolls or other variations to smooth the fit between Barnes and Poeltl. That went out of fashion last season, but perhaps the Raptors bring it back. Ultimately, Barnes can be devastating as an initiator, and the Raptors need to find ways to make that happen.
There were plenty of options that could have worked with Barnes as a handler. I considered Jamal Shead, Ja’Kobe Walter, Quickley, RJ Barrett, and even Jamison Battle. All have real merits. But if the best passer isn’t running good and frequent sets with the best screener, that would be a real limitation to Toronto’s offence.
3. Handler: Immanuel Quickley; Screener: Jakob Poeltl
Most teams prefer to run pick and rolls with their point guard and their center. It’s simply the traditional iteration. Well, the Raptors can do that too! This is a duo that is best used when together. I wrote about it in great depth last season:
Quickley is a point guard who needs a big to unlock his skills. Similarly, Poeltl is a big whose skills are wasted without a point guard. Neither can be his best self without the other. But together they ameliorate their own and one another’s weaknesses. They multiply one another’s strengths, and they altogether smooth out the rough edges of the entire team.
Since Quickley joined the Raptors, the two have played only 1429 minutes together. That’s low, largely due to injury… But in those 1429 minutes together, Toronto has had a healthy net rating of plus-3.95. (Keep in mind, two of those three seasons have been tanking years.) The Raptors have been negative with one or the other playing over that stretch and very negative with neither. This hasn’t been carried by Toronto’s star; Quickley-Poeltl units have had a slightly better net rating (plus-4.08) with Scottie Barnes off the floor over the last three seasons.
Of course, the Quickley-Poeltl duo represents a high floor for the Raptors rather than a high ceiling. If it uses too many possessions when Barnes and Leonard are on the floor, there are real opportunity costs to that usage decision. But when Barnes or Leonard are on the bench, or perhaps both are resting, Quickley and Poeltl can ensure the Raptors get very solid looks in the half court with regularity. This duo won’t define Toronto’s clutch performance. But in many ways, they will determine how often the Raptors actually reach clutch time.
4. Handler: Kawhi Leonard; Screener: Scottie Barnes
Barnes isn’t the Raptors’ best screener when it comes to the actual craft of the thing. He doesn’t take the best angles or create the best contact. But he remains the team’s best screener regardless. Why? Because he is such an outrageous finisher off the catch. When he catches the ball from 10 feet and in, it’s about as sure a bucket as the Raptors can finagle anywhere outside of uncontested layups in transition. It doesn’t hurt that Barnes is the team’s (and, again, maybe the league’s) best small-space passer, too. And of course, Leonard is Toronto’s best scorer. (See above.)
The duo has to make it work together.
The easiest solution will be forcing a lesser defender onto Leonard. How many teams have one wing that can handle Leonard in isolation, let alone a second one who can switch onto him from Barnes? That will put some money in the bank. But it can’t be the only path to paydirt. It needs to be a dessert course, not the whole meal.
If Barnes rolls with real intention, he will cause panic in defenders who are anticipating a simple switch. It would open acres for pull-up triples for Leonard. It would open downhill catches for Barnes if defences don’t respond with enough urgency. If Barnes ghosts to the perimeter, he can catch and play cat-and-mouse with a second screener from the corner, perhaps running some empty-corner stuff or even using some blind-pig concepts. He could stampede the catch to drives. All that is putting the cart before the horse. The duo has ways to make pick and rolls together function. It would be even easier if Barnes’ actual screen craft improved, too. (He was excellent in the playoffs, for what it’s worth.)
Ultimately, the Raptors need to put their two best players in actions together. For almost half a decade, Toronto’s best two players (pick which two) have more or less co-existed without actively helping one another on the offensive end. If the Raptors are going to be real contenders, they will need their best players to actively complement one another. Barnes and Leonard will have to figure it out together.
Did Laplace’s Demon function? It’s hard to say. He was Napoleon Bonaparte’s examiner when the future emperor graduated from military school. He survived the revolution and the restoration while remaining politically popular and powerful. He passed away peacefully from old age. Maybe he could see the future. And if Laplace found the magic sauce of foresight 200 years ago, perhaps so too have the Raptors this upcoming season.