Can Jim Harbaugh’s third Los Angeles Chargers team avoid the baseball bat?
I ask because recent Chargers coaches saw their program unravel, rather than ascend, in the pivotal third year.
“Normally, your third year, it fits,” veteran NFL coach Andy Reid told the Kansas City Star a decade ago. “You kind of establish what you are or what direction you’re going.”
Reid said that in his study of the industry, a bad third year often lands extra hard.
“It hits you in the head like it’s a baseball bat,” Reid said.
I ask because a Louisville Slugger arrived for third-year Chargers teams led by Mike McCoy, Anthony Lynn and Brandon Staley, the coaches who most recently preceded Harbaugh.
Each coach had begun with two winning seasons only to get exposed in their third years, falling to 4-12, 7-9 and 5-11.
None of those programs recovered, and the stars of each coach plummeted, too.
So when Harbaugh brought his team to the University of San Diego last month for two days of training camp, the question was put to Chargers general manager Joe Hortiz.
Will Harbaugh’s third team avoid the third-year drubbing?
Hortiz bristled.
Harbaugh, he insisted, belongs in a different category.
Harbaugh led four San Francisco 49ers teams earlier in his career, where McCoy, Lynn and Staley were new to head coaching when hired by Chargers leaders Dean Spanos, John Spanos and Tom Telesco.
“This is Jim’s seventh year as an NFL head coach,” Hortiz noted.
“I couldn’t put that together with the previous guys,” he added. “It’s not apples to apples. It’s not apples to oranges.
“I wouldn’t call it apples to steaks.”
In Harbaugh’s third year with the 49ers, 2013, his team did what Harbaugh teams tend to do: They put the wood to most opponents. The rugged style took them to the NFC Championship Game.
Though the 49ers didn’t match Harbaugh’s second team by reaching the Super Bowl, that NFC title bout in Seattle was nearly as big. The Seahawks won 23-17, then went on to trounce the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl.
If Harbaugh’s Chargers get to the AFC title game, it’ll be the franchise’s first one since the 2007 season. They’re heavy favorites to win the season opener Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals.
Derwin James Jr. of the Los Angeles Chargers participates in drills during an NFL football training camp at Torero Stadium on Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Meg McLaughlin / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
According to the quintessential Harbaugh guy among Chargers players, the coach’s rare consistency and enthusiasm have them ready to put on a show this year.
“He brought us a culture,” said All-Pro safety Derwin James. “To be able to be here in year three with him, it feels good, it feels right.
“I can’t wait for the world to see what we’ve got building up this year.”
Quarterback Justin Herbert said everyone on the team respects Harbaugh, a former NFL QB whose teammates praised his toughness.
“Everyone works harder, wants to fight harder and play harder for him,” Herbert said.
The Chargers have gone 11-6 in Harbaugh’s first two seasons. But where McCoy’s first team and Lynn’s second team won road playoff games, Harbaugh’s team has lost two in as many seasons.
The offense was the culprit each time.
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert warms up as new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel watches before a preseason game against the San Francisco 49ers on Aug. 20, 2026, at SoFi Stadium. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)
I expect Harbaugh’s team to avoid the third-year plummet.
By hiring Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator, Harbaugh raised the program’s upside.
Harbaugh opened up the job by firing Greg Roman, his former 49ers coordinator.
It’s a big deal that McDaniel, 43, coached for seven years under Kyle Shanahan and three years under Mike Shanahan.
Shanahan-system expertise equates to NFL gold as an offensive coach.
Look for McDaniel to get Herbert back to playing on time, rewarding Hortiz and Harbaugh for hiring the coach after the Dolphins fired him as their head coach in January.
Because of poor pass blocking by multiple Chargers teams, Herbert has developed bad habits that his very good seasons overshadowed. While Herbert overcame many of those emerging tendencies, the bad habits became more evident in the playoffs.
In particular, they showed up in the loss at New England last January. Per NFL analyst J.T. O’Sullivan, a former NFL quarterback, Herbert failed to pull the trigger on several pass plays in the first half and third quarter that should’ve gone for first downs or touchdowns.
Expect McDaniel, 43, to make Herbert more capable of succeeding not only in the regular season but in the postseason.
“McDaniel is going to be huge for Justin Herbert,” NFL analyst Daniel Jeremiah said in an email. “He’s going to bake in some quick, on-time throws with run-after-catch potential.
“He’s a run game genius, and he’ll dress up play action to work off the run game success.
“Justin shouldn’t take as much punishment because of this approach.”
The McDaniel-Herbert angle isn’t an unfamiliar one in Chargers Land.
Hired in 2013, McCoy and staff installed a quick-pass game that untracked Philip Rivers, who’d fallen into bad habits that had a lot to do with poor pass-blocking.
Rivers, getting the ball out on time, orchestrated a ball-control offense that led the NFL in yards and plays per drive yet also finished second in yards per pass attempt.
Whetting the appetite of L.A.’s supporters eager to see what McDaniel’s coaching can do, Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers offense Thursday night ripped the favored Rams in San Francisco’s lopsided victory.
“The (Shanahan) offense, all throughout the league, it’s a tough offense to play against,” Hortiz said.
“Mike knows it better than anybody, and he calls it and implements it better than anybody,” the GM added, likely excluding Shanahan. “And then, just his enthusiasm and ability to connect with everybody — the players, the staff — it’s really neat to see.
“It’s going to be a fun year for us.”
Harbaugh has seen his Chargers defense finish first and ninth in the NFL, while his special teams have landed in the top half each year.
McDaniel said the chance to work for Harbaugh and with Chargers players made the job ultra attractive.
Foremost of those players is Herbert. The 28-year-old QB has succeeded when supported by consistent line play, yet also boasts improvisational skills that set him apart from many NFL starters.
McDaniel has a bitter taste of how good Herbert can be, courtesy of the A-plus escape and completion the 6-foot-6 quarterback pulled off to beat the Dolphins last year.
“Crushed me, man,” McDaniel said.
“Can’t beat him, join him.”
The L.A. forecast: 11 wins in the regular season and one playoff victory.