Every September we get “The biggest game of the year”.
This time around, the star power will match the stakes as No. 1 Ohio State clashes with No. 4 Texas in a showdown with all the elements needed to live up to the hype.
Showdown in TX 📍 pic.twitter.com/9qMAnfGzsp
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) September 12, 2026
The top-ranked Buckeyes are led by a pair of Heisman Trophy candidates in quarterback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.
Ohio State’s biggest stars are both +1200 to win the Heisman Trophy at FanDuel this morning.
Then there’s the Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning.
Manning is the second choice to win the Heisman at +1000 behind only Miami QB Darian Mensah.
Darian Mensah in 2 starts (6 quarters) at Miami 🙌
• 41/45
• 653 passing yards
• 8 TD passes
• 0 interceptions
Joins Fernando Mendoza as 2nd FBS QB with 200+ pass yards, 3+ TD passes, and 90%+ completion rate in B2B starts in last 30 years. 4 more TDs than incompletions. 🔥 https://t.co/cEaKFQnhFn pic.twitter.com/70DLtRuuJA
— Domenic Padula (@Domenic_Padula) September 11, 2026
While he hasn’t officially committed to leaving Texas, Manning is already the favourite to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft at FanDuel.
The Buckeyes are the favourite to win the FBS Championship at +550.
The Longhorns are the second choice at +750.
Texas is currently a 1.5-point favourite versus Ohio State.
the calm before the storm ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/j44NTdsZtK
— Texas Longhorns (@TexasLonghorns) September 12, 2026
If that number holds, it will mark just the 14th time since the FBS/FCS split that the AP No. 1 ranked team enters a regular season game as an underdog.
The previous 13 went a combined 8-5 in that situation.
The Buckeyes have been the betting favourite at FanDuel in 32 straight games.
Even if that streak comes to an end tonight, nobody would be surprised if Ohio State left Texas with a win.
Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian is 0-4 straight up when his teams have been the favourite against AP top five ranked opponents.
While Texas cruised to a 59-7 win over Texas State last week, its defence posted a 47 per cent success rate.
Now the Longhorns face a much more difficult test against a loaded Buckeyes offence.
Sayin went 21-of-25 for 320 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s 56-3 win over Ball State.
Julian Sayin ➡️ Jeremiah Smith 🔥
That did not take long at all 😅
🎥 @CFBONFOX pic.twitter.com/MO8zk3h9yn
— TSN EDGE (@TSN_Edge) September 5, 2026
On the second drive of the game, Sayin connected with Smith on a 48-yard touchdown pass to cash the star receiver’s anytime TD prop at -150.
Smith recorded eight catches for 151 yards and two scores before taking a seat in the second half.
Now he gets a chance to boost his Heisman Trophy stock with the entire football world watching tonight.
HEISMAN TROPHY MARKET MOVES 💹
STOCK UP 📈
Darian Mensah +950 ➡️ +600
Jeremiah Smith +1700 ➡️ +1100
Trinidad Chambliss +2000 ➡️ +1100
Malachi Toney +3500 ➡️ +1300 🚀
STOCK DOWN 📉
CJ Carr +850 ➡️ +1200
Josh Hoover +2000 ➡️ +2500
Bryce Underwood +4000 ➡️ +7000 pic.twitter.com/PBHYwzlVcj
— Domenic Padula (@Domenic_Padula) September 7, 2026
FanDuel Set Smith’s props at 5.5 receptions and 81.5 receiving yards, while his anytime TD prop is -105.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he registered 6+ receptions, 82+ receiving yards, and scored again.
Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith is the next big thing.
Geno Smith: "He's gonna be the best ever."
Garrett Wilson: "It's men among boys."
Keyshawn Johnson: "He's a Pro's Pro." https://t.co/udx5AZFzv7 pic.twitter.com/mtgylPoCs7
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) September 3, 2026
Manning, Oregon’s Dante Moore, and Notre Dame’s CJ Carr are the top three choices to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
Smith is the fourth choice to be the first overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft at +1000.
He’s widely considered a lock to go in the top five picks.
Jeremiah Smith Week 1
8/151/2 on 9 targets pic.twitter.com/vVS5sNm7Nk
— James Foster (@NoFlagsFilm) September 5, 2026
Texas will attempt to bracket the 6’4’’, 222-pound receiver, the same way they did in Week 1 last season when Smith was held to six catches for 43 yards.
However, Ohio State offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has repeatedly said he wants to get the football in his hands as much as possible this season, and I expect him to deliver better numbers in tonight’s rematch.
Jeremiah Smith with the textbook toe-tap then hit the Heisman 🥶 pic.twitter.com/K0XXZRigSL
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) September 5, 2026
Smith had six or more receptions in four of his first five games last season, including 6 for 43 versus Texas.
FanDuel set Sayin’s passing yards prop at 244.5.
Smith could get to 82 receiving yards even without Sayin going over that number.
1.44 10 yard split at 224 pounds for Jeremiah Smith… https://t.co/zIq6awz7JM
— Ryan Paganetti (@RyanPaganetti) August 10, 2026
I don’t want to put too much stock into what we saw in Week 1, but Smith is coming off another dominant performance, and it’s clear that the coaching staff wants to feed him as many opportunities as possible.
With all eyes on some of the game’s biggest stars, I can’t wait to see what Smith does tonight in Texas.
Hopefully, the biggest game of the year lives up to the hype with a football spectacle under the bright lights at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.