Stats predictions Steelers
Stats predictions Steelers
Predicting stats for a full season in the NFL is tough to do. Many variables can shift those predictions one way or another, making it nearly impossible to get them right.
That said, I’m going to take a shot at predicting the statistical leaders for the Steelers across a handful of categories today.
It’s clear that Aaron Rodgers, barring injury, will lead the Steelers in passing yards and touchdowns, so no point in wasting time on that prediction. But rushing leader? Receiving leader? Sacks leader? Interceptions leader?
Those are all up in the air, and I’m going to do my best today to come as close as possible to nailing those predictions. That, or I’ll crash and burn. It’ll be fun to look back on this piece at the end of the year.
Away we go.
RUSHING LEADER: RICO DOWDLE
Prediction: 1,050 yards
Bringing in Rico Dowdle in free agency reunited him with head coach Mike McCarthy and strengthened the Steelers’ running back room in a big way. Dowdle is a between-the-tackles hammer, one that has put together back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. He pairs nicely with Jaylen Warren, but the big question in Pittsburgh is who will be the lead back under McCarthy.
The Steelers have said they’ll split the workload evenly and play the hot hand in games, but based on training camp work, Dowdle looks like the lead guy in a 60/40 split, even with Warren listed as RB1.
If Dowdle gets the bulk of the work, particularly in the run game, he should lead Pittsburgh in rushing yards and achieve NFL history in the process. I see him eclipsing 1,000 yards once again, though it’ll be in a similar vicinity of the yardage he’s put up throughout his career.
RECEIVING LEADER: MICHAEL PITTMAN JR.
Prediction: 930 yards
This might surprise many, especially after the hype DK Metcalf has generated in training camp and the buildup to the regular season. But with how Aaron Rodgers likes to play in recent years, focused on getting the ball out quickly, I think Michael Pittman Jr. is going to feast in Pittsburgh’s passing attack.
Sure, I have my own concerns with Pittman’s health, since he missed a chunk of training camp and didn’t have time to develop that chemistry with Rodgers, but Pittman was largely QB-proof throughout his time in Indianapolis, putting up consistent numbers regardless of who was under center for the Colts.
He is in a better situation in Pittsburgh with Rodgers under center, and in the Steelers’ West Coast-style offense there will be a lot of quick-hitter looks for Pittman, which should allow him to create after the catch and be a dependable outlet.
TACKLES LEADER: PAYTON WILSON
Prediction: 131 tackles
The inside linebacker room remains a concern for the Steelers entering the season, but there is some hope there for Payton Wilson, who had a terrific training camp and preseason. Under new defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, Wilson says he’s able to play faster and freer, which is great news for a linebacker in an attacking defense.
Last season, Wilson had a career-best 126 tackles, and I’m projecting him to beat that this season. I still have some concerns about his work against the run, but he played a more physical brand of football in the preseason, attacking downhill and taking on blocks with strength rather than trying to slip blocks all the time. He looked more like the North Carolina State version than the player he was the first two years in Pittsburgh.
SACKS LEADER: ALEX HIGHSMITH
Prediction: 10.5 sacks
The Steelers are going to be solid all around at outside linebacker when it comes to sacks. They’re loaded with T.J. Watt, Nick Herbig and Alex Highsmith in the fold, and all three are dangerous pass rushers. In Graham’s new scheme, they should see even more advantageous opportunities.
I see Highsmith leading the Steelers in sacks this season with 10.5. Previously, I projected the trio to have 26.5 sacks in 2026, so how I see it breaking down is Highsmith with 10.5, Watt with 10.0 and Herbig with 6.0. That might be a bit underwhelming, but I think it’s a good balance there.
Highsmith is vastly underrated, both in Pittsburgh and within the NFL. He can win with speed and power, and he’s a tremendous run defender, too. I think this is the year he reminds many of how good he is.
INTERCEPTIONS LEADER: JAQUAN BRISKER
Prediction: 3 interceptions
This is a bold prediction from me, considering Jaquan Brisker has never had multiple interceptions in a season. But landing in Graham’s scheme and bringing serious versatility to the table, I think he’s going to move all over the defense and be in position to make splash plays often.
He had five interceptions in college, including two seasons with two interceptions each, so clearly I’m projecting a career-best season for Brisker. He’s in a contract year as the Steelers landed him on a bargain one-year deal. Brisker is back home, too, and will be very motivated to have a big year and earn a big payday next offseason, either in Pittsburgh or elsewhere.
The Penn State product is an underrated piece that has been a good pro since entering the NFL. He’s going to make a big name for himself this season and will do so with some splash plays on the ball.