Steelers defense improvement
Steelers defense improvement
As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for the Steelers to end up on the right side of the score, and vice versa, in their Week 1 opener against the Atlanta Falcons.
My Steelers prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Atlanta’s Ball-Hawking Safeties Make Plays
The Falcons may be short on pass rushers, but there’s talent all over the secondary. Especially the safety duo of Jessie Bates and Xavier Watts, a mix of veteran and young riser to contend with.
If DK Metcalf can’t shake top corner AJ Terrell and Aaron Rodgers has to throw over the middle more often, he’ll enter their airspace. That comes with risk of turnover. Last year, Bates and Watts combined for eight interceptions, tied for the most by any safety pairing. Turnovers are football’s great equalizer, and Rodgers must take care of the ball.
2. Defense Takes Away Crossing Routes
In true Kevin Stefanski fashion, the Falcons like to hit a moving target over the middle. Crosser/over routes dot this offense. Pittsburgh needs to take away those RAC throws. Force Atlanta to work the sidelines and limit damage post-catch.
Cooper Rush is getting the last-minute nod over an injured Tua Tagovailoa. Despite his right-handed contrast to Tua being a lefty, his skill set is generally similar. He doesn’t have a great arm. Don’t let him get into a rhythm.
3. The Run Game Is Contained
Obvious as it is, this is a crucial element to Pittsburgh winning this game. Bijan Robinson is a top-three back in the league with true game-changing ability. Robinson comes off back-to-back 1,400-yard seasons, and the Falcons will lean on him as much as possible. Can Pittsburgh play smart and sound as they did against him in the 2024 opener? If so, they should handle this game. But that task is easier said than done.
Play your assignment, rally and tackle. Pittsburgh must get hats to the football to stop Robinson’s make-miss ability.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. TE Kyle Pitts Gets Loose
Pitts has had something of a frustrating career, but he got on track last season with career-bests across the board. Stefanski is a smart, offensive-minded coach who will get him the ball in space. Pitts’ size and speed make him a difficult matchup defensively. Will Pittsburgh put a linebacker, safety, or even a cornerback on him? Jalen Ramsey makes the most sense, but with a secondary that hasn’t banked many reps together, one breakdown could lead to a big gain in Atlanta’s favor.
The Falcons went 3-0 when Pitts found the end zone last year. He can’t celebrate later today.
2. Special Teams Makes Mistakes
On Cam Heyward’s podcast, Aaron Rodgers asked Pittsburgh’s special teams not to lose the game. One mistake can do just that. Kaden Wetjen had ball security issues in the preseason, and Week One can always be bumpy with new faces and a new coordinator.
Whether it’s allowing a big return, a missed field goal, a shanked punt, or a turnover, that stuff can’t happen in a game where Pittsburgh is favored. Of course, Pittsburgh wants special teams to be an asset – it certainly was in Week One a year ago – but that first starts with a “do-no-harm” mantra.
3. Steelers’ Offensive Line Takes Too Long To Warm Up
Pittsburgh’s offensive line has become known for slow starts, needing a couple of weeks to build their physicality in the run game and protect Aaron Rodgers in the passing game. Mike McCarthy has spent the summer detailing his desire to be physical above all else, and this unit must show it. Atlanta is missing multiple top pass rushers. The Steelers must win the line of scrimmage.
Matchup To Watch
DL Derrick Harmon vs RG Chris Lindstrom
This will be a fun one. Lindstrom is a veteran and one of the best guards in football. He’s made the Pro Bowl and second-team All-Pro in four consecutive years. Harmon had a strong summer but will face a serious test out of the gate. Let’s see who wins at the point of attack.
If Harmon plays well, it could be a sign that a Year Two breakout is coming.
Prediction
Steelers: 30
Falcons: 20
Season Prediction Record
0-0
The kiss of death – me predicting a Steelers win. If I remember to check the comments, leave your best “Alex jinx” roast below, and I’ll edit in my favorite, most creative one.
But I’m here to let you know I’m ready to avenge my terrible weekly prediction record from last season.