TAMPA, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 11: Bijan Robinson #7 of the Atlanta Falcons runs with the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium on December 11, 2025 in Tampa, Florida.
TAMPA, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 11: Bijan Robinson #7 of the Atlanta Falcons runs with the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium on December 11, 2025 in Tampa, Florida.
Steelers insider Christopher Carter breaks down the Week 1 game vs. the Atlanta Falcons and lists the team’s keys to victory.
When the Steelers have the ball
The Falcons fully invested in revamping their pass rush in last year’s draft, when they spent both first-round picks on edge rushers. But neither of them will be available for the game, as Jalon Walker is on injured reserve and James Pearce Jr. is suspended.
That means the Steelers could have a key advantage up front with their newly arranged offensive line against the Falcons’ fill-in pass rushers. Edge rusher Za’Darius Smith came out of retirement and signed with the Falcons for his 12th NFL season almost a month ago when Walker tore his ACL during training camp. Smith starts across from ninth-year veteran Samson Ebukam, who’s on his fourth NFL team.
Where the Falcons defense is strong is its secondary. Ninth-year safety Jessie Bates III is one of the best in the NFL and pairs well with second-year safety Xavier Watts, who nabbed five interceptions last year. Add in one of the better cover cornerbacks in A.J. Terrell Jr., and they have a lot of talent among their defensive backs.
[Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers talks with teammates during training camp at Saint Vincent College, Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2026, in Latrobe.
Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers talks with teammates during training camp at Saint Vincent College, Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2026, in Latrobe.](https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2026/09/10/aaron-rodgers-final-season-nfl-preview/stories/202609070026)
The Steelers need to make use their playmakers to exploit the Falcons’ weaknesses up front and limit the chances for Atlanta’s secondary to change the game.
When the Falcons have the ball
The Falcons have a three-headed monster on offense. Bijan Robinson is one of the best running backs in the league, while Drake London is a top-tier combat-catch receiver and Kyle Pitts has one of the best athletic profiles of any NFL tight end.
Their problem is they don’t have a quarterback who can put all of that talent together.
Michael Penix Jr. was the eighth overall pick of the 2024 draft but suffered a torn ACL last November that slowed his development. He’s now the team’s second-string quarterback behind Tua Tagovailoa, whom the Falcons signed in free agency this offseason.
But with Tagovailoa out due to injury, the Falcons will start Cooper Rush at quarterback. Rush is a 10th-year veteran who played under Mike McCarthy in their five years together with the Cowboys. 2024 was his best season, when he threw 12 touchdown passes and just five interceptions under McCarthy, but he threw zero touchdowns and four interceptions across two starts for the Ravens last year.
But can their new coach, Kevin Stefanski, make that quarterback situation not matter?
The Steelers must ensure that doesn’t happen.
[Pittsburgh Steelers DK Metcalf (4) celebrates a touchdown catch with Zach Frazier in a divisional football game at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday, Oct. 12, 2025.
Pittsburgh Steelers DK Metcalf (4) celebrates a touchdown catch with Zach Frazier in a divisional football game at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday, Oct. 12, 2025.](https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2026/09/09/nfl-predictions-super-bowl-awards/stories/202609090001)
Top matchup
DK Metcalf vs. A.J. Terrell Jr.
This will be the fourth time Metcalf and Terrell have squared off against each other in the NFL. When guarded by Terrell in those games, Metcalf averaged 2.3 receptions on 5.3 targets for 53.3 yards and only scored one touchdown across the span.
If Metcalf is going to be the Steelers’ ace receiver, he has to win his 1-on-1s against top cornerbacks such as Terrell. The two go back and forth in their matchups often, and whoever wins most often Sunday will give a significant advantage to his team.
The X-factor: Jaylen Warren
Last year, Sports Information Solutions charted the Falcons as missing 38 tackles against the run, tied for ninth most in the NFL.
That same year, Warren forced 53 missed tackles, eighth most among NFL running backs and tied with the Philadelphia Eagles’ Saquon Barkley. If the Steelers get Warren space on the ground, he can be the playmaker who shakes off tacklers and creates explosive plays for the offense without having to test the Falcons’ secondary.
Carter’s three keys
Own the line of scrimmage. The Steelers have invested a lot of draft capital and development into their offensive line. The biggest name on the Falcons’ defensive line is tackle Gervon Dexter Sr., a 2023 second-round pick who was traded to the Falcons just before this year’s roster deadline.
The running game is whereTroy Fautanu, Zach Frazier and Mason McCormick should make a big difference and create space for Warren and Rico Dowdle to control the pace.
Take away quick reads. Tagovailoa’s game had historically been based in quick, short passes underneath to dink and dunk his way downfield. That’s where Stefanski would’ve built a lot of the Falcons’ game plan. But now with Rush, that might change. Despite his shoddy numbers in 2025, Rush did have a passer rating of 101.5 on passes that traveled more than 10 yards downfield for the Cowboys in 2024.
But that was when Rush had CeeDee Lamb, one of the elite receivers of the NFL. London is a good receiver, but the Steelers should trust their cornerbacks to win matchups downfield against Rush and the Falcons’ pass catchers.
Joey Porter Jr., Jamel Dean and Jalen Ramsey need to limit Rush’s chances on quick passes, while the safeties and linebackers need to limit chances out of the backfield. Do those things, and Stefanski’s scheme will be limited.
Execute in the red zone. The Steelers defense ranked fifth in the red zone last year, with only 51.7% of their opponents’ possessions turning into touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Falcons offense ranked 10th, as they scored touchdowns on 62% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
Win here, and you force a backup quarterback to hit on big plays for his team to get in the end zone rather than shorter, safer passes that rely on the Falcons’ playmakers.
The bottom line
If the Steelers can force the story of the Falcons offense to be about their struggles at quarterback and not their uber-talented playmakers, Mike McCarthy should walk away with his first win as Steelers coach.
Carter’s call
The Steelers have never lost to the Falcons at home — and they never lost to Atlanta at all throughout Mike Tomlin’s tenure. In a clear rebuilding year for the Falcons, the Steelers have every opportunity to start their season strong against a below-average team that is missing its two most recent first-round picks. Rodgers builds an early lead, and Warren and Dowdle team up to control the pace from there.
Steelers 27, Falcons 16
First Published: September 13, 2026, 8:00 a.m.