Rockets forward Kevin Durant (7) shoots a free throw during the second quarter against the Detroit Pistons at Toyota Center
Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
The Houston Rockets know they have the talent to win games. They won 52 last season, finished 5th in the Western Conference, and posted a 6th-ranked net rating (+5.4), yet their season ended exactly where the previous one did: in the first round.
The Lakers eliminated Houston in six games, with the Luka Doncic-less Los Angeles closing out the series in Game 6 while Kevin Durant was also sidelined.
That is what makes this season very interesting. Houston didn’t blow up the team after another disappointing playoff exit. Instead, the Rockets doubled down on the young core while adding another layer of veteran experience around it.
Amen Thompson just signed a five-year, $208 million extension, Tari Eason re-signed on a team-friendly deal, and Houston added Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic to a roster that already includes Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason, and the returning Fred VanVleet.
And then there is Durant. He turns 38 during the 2026-27 season, which makes this a win-now experiment in the NBA.
Houston doesn’t need the Durant who carried Oklahoma City or Golden State. It needs the veteran superstar who can walk into the fourth quarter, take over a playoff game, and teach a talented young roster what postseason basketball actually requires.
The question isn’t whether the Rockets have enough talent. Can Durant get them over the hump?
Starting Lineup
Point Guard: Fred VanVleet
Shooting Guard: Amen Thompson
Small Forward: Kevin Durant
Power Forward: Jabari Smith Jr.
Center: Alperen Sengun
The Rockets’ starting five has the potential to be effective in the Western Conference. Durant (26.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 4.8 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.9 BPG) still gives Houston a go-to scorer, and Sengun (20.4 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 6.2 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.1 BPG) is the team’s creative hub in the frontcourt. Both players made the All-Star Team in the West last season and are one of the best duos in the league.
Amen Thompson is coming off a breakout third season in which he averaged 18.3 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 5.3 APG, 1.5 SPG, and 0.6 BPG while leading the entire NBA in minutes. His development as a ball-handler became particularly important after VanVleet’s season-ending ACL injury.
Jabari Smith Jr. (15.8 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.9 APG, 0.7 SPG, and 0.9 BPG) gives the lineup another enormous body who can stretch the floor, rebound, and defend multiple positions, while the returning VanVleet provides the veteran organization Houston missed last season.
The Rockets actually managed to win 52 games without him, which is perhaps the most encouraging part of the entire equation. Now imagine adding a healthy starting point guard to a team that already finished 4th in defensive rating (110.0) and 6th in net rating (+5.4).
Then there’s Durant, who changes the geometry of the floor simply by standing on it. He obviously should create easier opportunities for Sengun, Thompson, and Smith.
Houston’s offense ranked 8th in efficiency last season (118.6) despite finishing only 18th in scoring (115.2 PPG), so there was already a strong foundation. The big question is whether adding Durant’s shot creation and another year of development from the young core can turn a good regular-season team into a dangerous playoff team.
Bench
Point Guard: Marcus Smart, Bruce Thornton, Sean Pedulla
Shooting Guard: Reed Sheppard, Isaiah Crawford
Small Forward: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Quadir Copeland
Power Forward: Tari Eason, Jae’Sean Tate
Center: Steven Adams, Clint Capela
The bench might actually be where Houston becomes much more dangerous. Marcus Smart brings championship experience, defensive nastiness, and another ball-handler, while Bogdan Bogdanovic gives the Rockets something they badly needed last season: another experienced shooter capable of creating offense when the first option gets taken away.
Both players are older than the Rockets’ core, but that’s precisely why they make sense. Smart is coming off a 2025-26 season posting 9.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.4 SPG, and 0.4 BPG, while Bogdanovic posted 7.4 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.2 APG, 0.4 SPG, and 0.1 BPG in 23 games.
Smart has spent his career embracing the ugly parts of basketball. He can defend and make winning plays that don’t necessarily show up in the box score. Bogdanovic is a different type of veteran, providing shooting and scoring without requiring the offense to revolve around him.
Houston’s 2025-26 offense was 8th in efficiency, but the Rockets attempted the fourth-fewest three-pointers in the league (31.5 attempts per game). More shooting and more willingness to let it fly could make a significant difference.
The depth also allows Ime Udoka to mix and match. Reed Sheppard is another wild card after an uneven beginning to his career, finishing 6th in 6th Man of the Year voting last season by averaging 13.5 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.5 SPG, and 0.7 BPG. Tari Eason is a defensive-minded forward, posting 10.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.2 SPG, and 0.5 BPG.
Both youngsters will play pivotal roles off the bench, and the Rockets have enough size with Steven Adams and Clint Capela to throw different looks at opposing frontcourts.
This isn’t a superstar-and-scrubs roster. It has real depth.
Strength
The biggest strength is two-way ability. Houston doesn’t have to win games one way. It can grind opponents down defensively, play through Sengun in the half court, run Thompson in transition, or simply hand the ball to Durant and get out of the way.
That flexibility matters enormously in the playoffs, where opponents have a week to study every weakness.
The young players also give Houston something Durant’s previous teams haven’t always had: enormous physical upside around him. Thompson is 6’7″ with elite athleticism and defensive instincts, Smith is 6’11”, Sengun is a skilled 6’11” offensive center, and Eason is another long, aggressive defender.
Thompson’s 1.5 steals and 0.6 blocks per game last season illustrate the defensive impact he can make from the perimeter as a former All-NBA First Defensive Team member. And perhaps most importantly, Houston has already proven it can defend.
The Rockets ranked 4th in the NBA in points allowed, 6th in defensive rating and 6th in net rating last season. That’s not a fluke profile.
If Durant and VanVleet provide even close to their normal offensive efficiency, while the young players continue improving, Houston has the ingredients of a team that can make life miserable for everybody in a seven-game series.
Weaknesses
The obvious weakness is age and health. Durant is nearly 38. Smart is 32. Bogdanovic is 34. VanVleet is returning from a major knee injury. Steven Adams and other veteran pieces have also dealt with injuries.
Houston’s ceiling is enormously dependent on having its veterans available when the games matter most. Durant’s absence against the Lakers demonstrated just how quickly the margin for error disappears when the superstar isn’t available.
Shooting remains another concern. Thompson averaged just 21.6% from three last season, which is the biggest hole in his offensive game. That doesn’t make him a bad player, far from it, but opponents can still make life difficult for Houston if they pack the paint and dare its non-shooters to beat them from outside.
Sengun, the second-best player on the team, only shot 30.5% from deep. Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason hit 36.3% and 35.8% from deep, respectively, meaning the key pieces aren’t exactly knockdown shooters. In the first round of the playoffs against the Lakers, the Rockets only shot 30.2% from deep and 40.9% from the field overall.
The Rockets need Smith, Sheppard, Bogdanovic and others to punish those defensive choices. Then there is the biggest question of all: Who is the guy when the game gets ugly?
Durant is obviously the most proven answer, but Houston ultimately needs Sengun and Thompson to become comfortable making enormous playoff decisions themselves. The Rockets had 52 wins last season and still couldn’t get out of Round 1.
Regular-season success is no longer enough. The young core has to prove it can translate that success to May basketball.
Conclusion: Rockets Can Be A Legitimate Title Contender
There is a legitimate argument that Houston is being underrated because its most important improvement isn’t necessarily another star player; it’s experience. Durant has been through virtually every basketball situation imaginable. Smart has won a championship. Bogdanovic has played in major international and NBA games.
VanVleet has already experienced the pressure of winning a title. Meanwhile, Sengun, Thompson, Smith, Sheppard, and Eason are entering the years when young players traditionally make their biggest jumps.
The Rockets don’t need Durant to average 30 points and drag them through the regular season. They need him to be the closer they didn’t have when their season ended last year.
They need Thompson to take another leap, Sengun to establish himself as a genuine offensive star, and their defensive identity to survive against the West’s elite. If those things happen, this is no longer simply a young team with an aging superstar attached to it.
This can be a legitimate title contender. The West is brutal, and there is no guarantee Houston gets through Oklahoma City, San Antonio, the Lakers, or whoever else emerges from the pack.
But 52 wins without VanVleet and with Durant unavailable, when the Lakers finished them off, tells us something: the Rockets were already good. Now they have a chance to become great. Durant’s job is to provide the final ingredient.
Prediction: Rockets Win 54 Games, Lose In The Second Round