Nuggets projected to see big Jamal Murray leap to help Nikola Jokic, but there's a catch image
Championship windows are closing for some squads in the NBA. The Denver Nuggets will have to watch this happen in real time. Nikola Jokic is starting to approach the twilight of his prime and everyone around him should act fast to maximize that. Jamal Murray is usually the tipping point that decides whether they do well. For the 2026-27 NBA season, luck is on the side of Mile High City and their fans.
Will Murray rise to become an All-Star and All-NBA selection once again? Let's break it down!
Breaking Down Jamal Murray's 2026-27 Stat Projections With The Nuggets
Shot diet was the main reason the Nuggets struggled against opponents during the 2025-26 NBA season. They attempted 87.8 field goals per game, ranking 26th in the NBA. Denver shot an impressive 39.6% from three and 49.6% from the field, ranking first and second in the league, respectively, which means they should try to stuff the rim more from all parts of the floor.
This is where Jamal Murray comes in to help the Nuggets led by Nikola Jokic. His Basketball Reference Per 36 Minutes Projections for the 2026-27 NBA season are as follows:
PTS FGA FG% 3P% FT% AST TRB STL BLK TOV
24.1 17.8 0.479 0.421 0.881 6.8 4.4 1.1 0.5 2.3
Once cleaned and computed, Murray's projected Per Game averages will show. Some charts even suggest he will be a big help to Jokic and the Nuggets once the season starts, if he gets the same 35.4 minutes per game. (Notes: the solid dotted line is the average for every point guard in the 2025-26 NBA season, the**gray dotted line** is the player's career average, and the red dotted line is the projection for the 2026-27 NBA season)
A glaring observation can be made about Murray's offensive output, especially in scoring. He is likely going to take a back seat in producing points for the Nuggets because they got DeMar DeRozan, who is a bucket-getter in the league. However, the hit to the Nuggets star guard's production is not that big. From his career-high 25.4 points per game due to taking 18.1 field goals, he will have to settle for a 23.7-point average on 17.5 field goal attempts. It's not that much of a downgrade, especially when considering the Nuggets are getting a career 21.1-point scorer from the Sacramento Kings.
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Another thing to look at are the upticks in Murray's defensive metrics. He is projected to record 4.3 rebounds and 0.5 blocks, the second-highest averages in his career. The Nuggets star guard's ability to stuff passing lanes and become a point-of-attack pickpocket will also shine, causing a rise back to 1.1 steals per game.
Efficiency-wise, Murray is expected to maintain his All-NBA form for the 2026-27 NBA season. He will help Jokic and the Nuggets maintain their place atop the three-point percentage rankings. This is because he is projected to knock down 42.1% of his three-pointers, the third-highest in his career. The same story goes for his field goal percentage. Murray is slated to knock down 47.9% of all his field goals, also the third-highest in that statistical category for his career.
Brightest Spot For Jamal Murray and the Nuggets
When there are three or more ball-hungry players on the same team, sharing the ball is pivotal to an NBA team's success. Jamal Murray is expected to be just that for the Nuggets, an effective floor general. Nikola Jokic cannot be the only person dishing out passes. In fact, that has made it increasingly easy to scheme against Denver. With Murray's projected assist numbers factored in, they will become a bigger threat.
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6.7 assists, if the projections hold, will be the second-most that Murray has averaged to help organize the Nuggets offense. He reached 7.1 assists during the 2025-26 NBA season, but even that is not out of the realm of possibility. He could beat that career-high if DeRozan, Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson, and Christian Braun are efficient in knocking down shots after he dishes passes out to them.
This statistical category specifically is important for the Nuggets. This matters because their secondary point guard, Tyus Jones, just finished a season in which he averaged only 2.4 assists. Jones has shown the capability to be effective as a ballhandler and offensive orchestrator, just like his 7.3-assist season with the 2023-24 Washington Wizards. Still, it will take time for him to acclimate to the Nuggets.
Murray's recurring statistical dark spot
A high-usage point guard who also scores well tends to have a recurring problem: turnovers. Jamal Murray has not shaken this off quite yet in the past nine years of his career. In fact, it looks like an old ghost in his game has continued to haunt him as he rose to the All-NBA Third Team for the 2025-26 season. This same ghost doesn't intend to leave his side soon, either.
The projected 2.3 turnovers, his career-high, for Murray is way above the point guard league average of 1.7 turnovers. In fact, the Nuggets will likely see him average a career-high in turnovers for the third time in nine years. Obviously, that comes with a high usage rate, being a primary scorer at times, and even being the sole offensive engine to keep the Nuggets alive when Nikola Jokic is not around. Hopefully, the addition of Tyus Jones proves this projection wrong and helps the Nuggets' title hopes.
Going back to the question: can Murray go back to being a an All-NBA selection by the end of the 2026-27 NBA season? That could happen if he fixes his ball-security issues and leads the Nuggets back to title contention despite new contenders rising.
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