Ball security wasn’t an issue for Baker Mayfield on this play. It was too many times, otherwise.
One of the sports fads of the third decade of the 21st century is a complete and total mystery to Joe.
What is the deal with win probabilities? And why do people care? It has to be some gambling thing, right? America cannot be this obsessed with stat geekery, can we?
_So-and-so just farted into the catcher’s face mask. That gives his team a win probability of 42 percent._
Who. Gives. A. Eff?!
But to play along with the numbers crowd, how badly was the Bucs’ win probability after Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield played Santa Claus in Cincinnati? The Bucs still had a [better than expected](https://www.nfl.com/news/2026-nfl-season-week-1-what-we-learned-from-sunday-s-games#cin) win probability, per Nick Shook of NFL.com.
> **NEXT GEN STATS INSIGHT**:Baker Mayfield’s three lost fumbles decreased the Buccaneers’ win probability by a combined 32.9 percentage points in Sunday’s loss to the Bengals.
The way some folks talk about turnovers, Joe figured Mayfield doomed the Bucs, maybe a two percent shot. Not only did the Bucs nearly make a comeback, they had a third of a chance to win.
Joe is more of a win certainty guy. As long as you have more points than the other team when the clock hits 0:00, you win.
That’s what Joe is concerned with. And the Bucs failed at that Sunday, no matter how you slice it or how much you want to play with a calculator.