With the NFL back in action, it’s overreaction season. The zest for the return of genuine football lends itself to minuscule sample size assumptions transformed into etched-in-stone statements of fact.
Those stone tablets of truth crumble. Many Week 1 snap judgements don’t hold up come January. They’re a purblind, imperceptible picture of a majestic mosaic whose final form we can’t discern yet.
There’s already some consternation and denigration happening in these parts after Drake Maye and the Patriots delivered a dud in their Super Bowl rematch against the Seahawks last Wednesday. Maye threw three fourth-quarter interceptions and threw away a chance to tie the game late with an ill-advised end zone flip that was picked off. Coming off a sack-ridden, inconsistent maiden postseason run, that’s enough for some to downgrade Maye, last year’s MVP runner-up, to a flickering shooting star instead of a signal-caller celestial body the Patriots can orbit around for years to come.
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Related: With all respect to Jayson Tatum, Patriots QB Drake Maye is Boston’s No. 1 star, and other thoughts
That, like a lot of things in Week 1, calls for the catchphrase of former Patriots linebacker Rosevelt Colvin: “Calm down!” Maye has to trim his penchant for turnovers — he has registered four double-digit turnover performances in his last five games, but last season wasn’t some mirage.
Mere inches often separate franchise quarterbacks from savior or scapegoat. Just ask Josh Allen.
Remember, the Patriots looked out of sync offensively while losing last year’s season-opener to the Raiders and old friend Pete Carroll, 20-13. That’s 3 more points than they scored against Seattle.
Observers, including this one, questioned whether Maye and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels were compatible dance partners. All the Patriots ended up doing was sailing to the Super Bowl and finishing second in points per game (28.8), while Maye set a franchise record for completion percentage (72 percent).
It’s entirely possible the league has caught up to Maye, and that he and the Patriots are in for a course correction season, especially now that No. 1 receiver A.J. Brown is hors de combat with a severe high ankle sprain and will miss at least four games on IR. But can we wait for more evidence than what we saw in Week 1, which tends to produce some misleading results?
Let’s fire up the DeLorean and venture back to Week 1 of the 2025 season. Here were a few of the takeaways, starting with both Super Bowl teams flopping in their first game.
After upending the Patriots, Carroll looked like he could put the viva back in Las Vegas. The Mike Vrabel Patriots went to the Super Bowl. The Raiders fired Carroll and were recipients of the No. 1 pick.
Sam Darnold unfurled a middling performance against San Francisco as the Seahawks lost at home too. He was 16 of 23 for 150 yards and a lost fumble. There was zero sign Darnold was taking Seattle to a Super Bowl.
Tre Tucker and the Raiders beat the Patriots in Week 1 last season, one of only three wins for the season, while the Patriots went 14-3.
Tre Tucker and the Raiders beat the Patriots in Week 1 last season, one of only three wins for the season, while the Patriots went 14-3.
The Colts scored on all seven of their offensive possessions, the launching point for rocketing out to a surprising 7-1 start. Indianapolis finished 8-9 and was already plummeting back to Earth before losing quarterback Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles tendon.
Kyler Murray played well for Arizona in a Week 1 win. By Oct. 5, he was saying a loss to the Titans, who snapped a 10-game losing streak, was the worst of his career. He also injured his foot; it was the last game he played as a Cardinal.
A few more: Bryce Young looked cooked as a QB in Carolina after posting a 49 passer rating in a season-opening loss to the Jaguars. He took Carolina to the playoffs … J.J. McCarthy rallied the Vikings from a double-digit second-half deficit and looked like a gutsy winner and viable option for the future. Now, he’s a third-stringer that the Vikings would peddle at a yard sale … Michael Penix Jr. threw for 298 yards and a score while adding a rushing TD as the Falcons lost a nip-and-tuck affair with Tampa Bay, but looked to have found a QB.
Related: Patriots’ offense must be fixed to keep up with the rest of the NFL, and other Week 1 takeaways
So, I’m not betting on a lot of this year’s Week 1 declarations holding up:
▪ That Bears QB Caleb Williams is going to surpass Maye in the QB hierarchy, and that Chicago can live up to coach Ben Johnson’s proclamation to top the 2013 Denver Broncos (606 points) as the highest-scoring team in NFL history. Chicago outgunned Carolina, 59-37, in the highest-scoring season-opening contest ever.
▪ That the John Harbaugh Giants will be powered more by 1980s movie villain doppelgänger QB Jaxson Dart than a physical rushing attack and a potent pass rush.
▪ That the efficiency struggles of Washington’s Jayden Daniels (18 of 34 for 164 yards with two TD passes) seal that he peaked his rookie year.
All of us in the tangled media thicket have content to generate, but there’s nothing wrong with injecting a little bit of perspective.
Week 1 is a bloviator booby trap.
The Patriots have and will have their issues. But it’s premature to completely write off receiver Reche, uh, Romeo Doubs.
Week 1’s triumphs and epiphanies as well as its catastrophes and crises tend to fade.
The NFL season is off and running, along with imaginations and suppositions. The leaves haven’t changed yet, but it’s peak season for overreaction.