This offseason, the Boston Celtics packed up Jaylen Brown, a franchise legend, and sent him off to one of their historic rivals, the Philadelphia 76ers. In return, the Celtics are bringing in a likely future Hall of Famer in Paul George, to go along with a slew of draft picks. We don’t need to relitigate whether this was a good or bad return for Jaylen Brown; Paul George is a Celtic. The star forward arriving in Boston in the twilight of his career reminds me of another time a future Hall of Famer arrived in Boston, except in that instance it was his second arrival, Al Horford in 2021.
Brad Stevens’ first order of business as president of basketball operations in 2021 was bringing back Al Horford. A move that foreshadowed Stevens’ brilliance as a front-office executive. Horford’s second act with Boston began in his age-35 season; Paul George will embark on his Celtics tenure in his age-36 season. I think there’s a chance that PG becomes this era’s version of Al Horford, a wing version whose blend of elite shooting and defense complements this current Celtics roster perfectly. There are two obvious barriers to Paul George reaching the lofty heights of Al Horford’s 2021-2025 Celtics stint; that dude was a playoff cheat code. Big Al could switch one through five, protect the rim, stretch the floor and was an elite connector. Those are big shoes to fill for the late-career versatile wing. The first barrier is the obvious health concerns; over the last five seasons, George has played an average of 48 regular-season games. However, it’s notable that PG has played in 125 of 131 possible career playoff games. Five were missed due to injury in 2023, and one was missed in 2022 due to COVID safety protocols. Next, when comparing Horford’s role with the Celtics and George’s potential role, there are similarities, but the Celtics will rely on George far less than they did Horford. The Celtics unfairly burdened Horford with the fate of the Celtics’ frontcourt. Rob Williams took the group to a new level, but his knees gave out; Porzingis was only able to give the team two and a half healthy playoff games, Luke Kornet was a great regular-season minutes eater, and Neemias Queta wasn’t ready yet. The centre job was Horford’s to hold down. The same will not be asked of Paul George. The 2026-2027 Celtics are overflowing with young, athletic, rangy wing depth, who will keep PG fresh throughout the season. For George to actualise his destiny as 2022 Al Horford, I will gladly accept a 48-game season if he is ready to perform as he did in the most recent playoffs, in which he tortured the Celtics on both ends of the court for an entire series. George entered his first offseason healthy in multiple years and is coming off a season in which he performed at an elite level. I expect the Celtics to limit his minutes to at most 28 minutes per game, and invoke Horford’s left big toe injury designation for back-to-backs. Call me a blind optimist, but I expect a relatively healthy season from George on a load management plan.
When comparing Paul George and Al Horford, there are clear similarities. Ageing veterans whose All-Star days are in the rearview mirror and who are willing to embrace their late-career role-player designations. George, similar to Horford, has a skill set perfectly suited to being a superstar role player. The former MVP candidate is still one of the league’s premier shooters both off the catch and on pull-ups, a capable pick-and-roll operator, and is both a lockdown on-ball defender and a swarming off-ball defender. The Celtics just can’t ask George to do too many of those things too often. For most of the season, I expect George to operate in spot-up situations, providing elite spacing for Jayson Tatum and Payton Pritchard, while playing high-level team defense. With a sprinkle of on-ball creation and on-ball defense when the timing is right. It will be similar to the way Horford used to pace himself in the regular season by saving a few jumps for rebounds and contests at the rim for when it was really going to matter. Joe Mazzulla shouldn’t ask Paul George (or Jayson Tatum) to guard the league’s elite offensive weapons during the regular season. That’s a young man’s job. That’s a job for Hugo Gonzalez, Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman, and Ron Harper Jr.
One piece of the Horford-George parallel that might not line up is the length of their Celtics tenure. It’s no secret that the Celtics are open to using George’s ~$55 million contract to go star hunting. However, that star may not materialise. And while the Celtics are flush with high-value draft assets and intriguing prospects, they may be outbid for this mystery star. Conventional wisdom in that scenario is that the Celtics will pick up George’s 2027-2028 $56 million player option and let it expire. I think there is a high likelihood that the Celtics and George negotiate a decline-and-extend scenario. Something similar to what the Cleveland Cavaliers just did with James Harden. Now, before some Celtics fans throw their computers at the wall, hear me out. This would only happen if we get the Paul George season I laid out above. A successful load management season that results in 50-ish regular-season games and high-level playoff play. If the Celtics make no significant roster moves until next offseason, the team is currently projected to be around $9 million over the luxury tax line going into the 2027-2028 season. Celtics owner Bill Chism has emphasised that it is not a factor when making basketball decisions. However, if the team can stay under the tax and salary cap aprons longer, that is good for the roster’s long-term health. So, a contract could look like a two-year $85 million deal. With $45 million due in the first year and $40 million in the second year. Or it could be a three-year deal somewhere in the $100 million ballpark. Yes, George would be overpaid, but maintaining the rich salary slot is important for making the future trades that will vault the Celtics back into not just contender territory, but title favourite territory. This will also allow the Celtics to use their mid level exception to bring in another free agent like Mitchell Robinson. That smells like optionality to me.
For those who are dubious that the Celtics can benefit from the services of another ageing star, I implore you to embrace the new era of sports medicine we are living in. We live in a world where players are returning from Achilles injuries in record times across all sports. There are stars playing high-level basketball deep into their 30s and early 40s. LeBron James aside, as he is a very clear alien outlier, there are still players impacting winning late into their careers. Kevin Durant turns 38 next month and was just selected to his 12th All-NBA team. Steph Curry is 38 and still one of the best offensive players in the NBA. The Cleveland Cavaliers are asking 37-year-old James Harden to be one of their lead initiators again. That is a bad idea, but if Harden played a more condensed role, he could still be a superstar role player. Kawhi Leonard at age 35 is still a basketball cyborg whenever he takes the court. What stands out among all these players is the dramatic difference in the burden they will be asked to carry relative to Paul George. George is coming to Boston to be the wing version of 2024 Al Horford…or a tall version of 2024 Jrue Holiday. Either way, the nine-time All-Star is overqualified for this role and will thrive as a late-career impact role player for the Celtics.