Photo by Harriet Lander - Chelsea FC/Chelsea FC via Getty Images
Photo by Harriet Lander - Chelsea FC/Chelsea FC via Getty Images
After the draw against Hull City, the Opta Supercomputer still had Chelsea finishing in the top four. But after the defeat at Brentford, things have just got a whole lot worse.
The draw against Hull saw Chelsea get a bit lucky, avoiding defeat and having to rely on two major saves from summer signing Emi Martinez. At Brentford, Martinez could do nothing as Brentford ran riot.
Chelsea capitulated in the second half after conceding from a set-piece. It left John Terry baffled, after watching Valentin Barco attempt to mark Jannik Schuster. It’s made a big change to Opta’s predictions.
READ MORE: Emi Martinez is saving Chelsea, not hindering them – and the stats prove it
Opta had Chelsea in fourth position before Brentford
Before the loss at Brentford, Opta forecasted Chelsea to get fourth. A 1.93% chance was given to winning the Premier League title, 57 points secured and a 30% chance of Champions League qualification.
But the defeat has changed that. Chelsea are now looking at a fifth-place finish according to Opta, while Chelsea’s title chances have halved – now just 0.93%. Champions League hopes stand at just 17.5%.
Indeed, the Blues have dropped from 57 points to just over 54 with Brighton overtaking the Blues into fourth. Brentford, the side that beat Chelsea on Friday, are just 0.2 points behind Chelsea at the moment.
Fifth place enough for Alonso to be deemed a success, just
Given the amount of money spent in the summer, Chelsea simply have to qualify for the Champions League this season. It is as simple as that. Alonso is a project manager, but he needs short-term success.
He needs both, in actual fact. That starts with getting Chelsea back into the Champions League and given the Premier League’s impressive coefficient, fifth should be enough to secure qualification for 27-28.
But that is as low as Alonso can go if he wants to be considered a success as Chelsea manager. Yes, the players are still learning his tactics, but there are clear weaknesses and they must be ironed out soon.
Failure to do so, and Chelsea will struggle to achieve the top five. That will see Alonso’s position as manager come under the microscope and any hope of a long-term Chelsea era will be thrown out.