In his first two seasons with the Toronto Raptors, Ja’Kobe Walter has put up solid numbers. His rookie campaign saw him average 8.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game in 20 minutes of action. He followed that up with a sophomore season averaging 7.5 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 1.2 assists per game in similar floor time.
It’s easy to panic when looking at the slight decrease, but in reality, the slight drop isn’t concerning at all. The opposite actually. Despite a marginal decline, there was actually a drastic increase in his efficiency. His field goal percentage climbed from 40.5% his rookie year to 44.6% his sophomore season. Considering exclusively long range shots, that goes from 34.9% to 40.9%.
He was actually making more of the shots he was taking, even though he wasn’t taking as many.
And this is where Ja’Kobe’s biggest value to the team lies. He may not get a ton of shots every night, but he will make the ones he does get.
October vs. April
Early on in the season, some fans were raising concerns over the decrease in the offensive abilities of Walter, amongst some of the other young Raptors. To some extent, the numbers were worrying. Shooting below 29% from long range on barely 2 points per game, the start of the season looked rough for Ja’Kobe. He showed some gradual improvement, but prior to the All-Star break, he was scoring 5 points per game and only 35% from long range.
There was a steady improvement upon returning though, and by April, he was shooting 50% from 3-point range and scoring almost 10 points a game. His post-season was solid too, as he managed two 20-point appearances in the seven playoff games the Raptors had.
This shows the continuous effort and development not only throughout the season, but also holistically as a player.
It has to be everyone’s hope that he will continue on this trajectory.
The 3-Point Shooter
Floor spacing is a commodity in the NBA that teams will pay top dollar for. It’s not a positional skill anymore either, with even centers developing an outside shot.
This is an area that Toronto has struggled in the last few years. They’ve brought a few people in over the years like Bruce Brown and Ochai Agbagi, took chances with draft picks like Gradey Dick, and even tried to develop their own players, but nothing has looked more promising than Ja’Kobe Walter.
Ja’Kobe started in the same spot everyone does, by developing a solid corner 3-pointer:
He shoots about 50% from both corners, more than 12% better than the league average. His teammates clearly trust him out there, as they continue to feed him the ball. More than 99% of his 3-point shots were assisted. He’s not creating the shot entirely on his own, he’s creating opportunities, and capitalizing on them. He’s almost as good from the left wing, where he is also significantly better than the league average:
It’s clear he’s found his niche. In his rookie year almost 37% of his shots were inside the paint, where now less than a quarter of them are. They’re not coming from the midrange either, where only 1% of his points are generated. Ja’Kobe is developing his long range game from every location on the floor. It’s not situational either. He is happy to get out in front of the action or trail and wait at the top of the arc for a long range opportunity:
While he is predominantly a spot-up shooter, he’s starting to find ways to be incorporated in more complex actions that involve single and double screens for him to get open from almost anywhere:
If he continues to excel as a long range shooter, he could be one of the Raptors’ most valuable pieces, either as a starter, or coming off the bench. His ability to spread defenses out to open up space for guys like Kawhi, Scottie, RJ, and Poeltl who all like to operate in and around the paint could be crucial for Toronto’s success this season.
The (not) 3-point shooter
With the Raptors’ continued push towards ball movement under Darko Rajaković, everyone has seen some dramatic changes. Across the board, almost every Raptor has seen a significant drop-off in the points they’re scoring unassisted. Scottie’s unassisted scoring fell from 50% to 40% in only one season, while Barrett, Quickley, and Walter all simultaneously saw similar >10% drops.
Once teams find out how good you are at shooting, noting that your team keeps finding you, they’re going to start running you off the line. Ja’Kobe is showing the ability to adjust to this, and score anyways:
If he’s being tightly guarded and doesn’t see an opening for himself beyond the arc, he’s happy to cut inside as well:
This movement makes him harder to guard outside the arc since he isn’t relying only on that shot. He’s becoming more versatile and adjusting to what defences are giving him. If they are giving him the long range shot, he’ll take it. If they’re not, he’s happy to find other ways to score.
The Clutch Scorer
Close games are never an easy thing for a young player to navigate. Even tight possessions can wreak havoc on players’ shooting splits, as the added pressure can greatly affect performance. Already as a sophomore this didn’t seem to bother Ja’Kobe though, as he led the team in 3-point shooting efficiency with less than 4 seconds on the shot clock. Shooting 9-for-24 in those circumstances, he’s pretty young to already have the confidence and ability to knock down shots like that. Despite how poorly a possession can go, having someone you can kick the ball out to as a last option and actually have them convert it is invaluable.
Ja’Kobe is starting to prove he can be that guy.
The Perfect Fit
Besides ball movement, the Raptors also capitalize on fastbreak points and defence. When Ja’Kobe is on the floor, 1.3 of his points per game (almost 18% of his scoring) comes from a fastbreak. Most of these are generated off of steals, which he is continuously getting better at as well. When he’s on the floor, he accounts for almost 26% of the Raptors’ steals.
He fits their system and is continuing to develop within it.
Next Steps
Ja’Kobe has now had a fairly long summer to work and develop. There’s already been a few videos surfacing online showing some of the work he’s been doing, but it’s pretty clear that his development, skills, and fit within Toronto’s system will make him a huge asset that they’re willing to invest in.
What would benefit him more than anything else is continued defensive development. In his rookie season, he held a 111 defensive rating. That improved marginally to 110.7 this past season. He’s not necessarily a liability, but there is definitely room for improvement.
He also needs to continue to develop his shot from the right wing, the only spot in 3-point territory that he has been struggling.
While small goals, hopefully those were his points of focus over the summer.
Ja’Kobe doesn’t need to be able to do everything, but if he can defend and continue to be a scoring threat from anywhere beyond the arc, he could help the Raptors be a championship contender, providing space for everyone else to operate, and knocking down crucial baskets when he’s needed.