A deep dive into Bukayo Saka's start to the season which has seen some scrutiny come the Arsenal winger's way
Arsenal: Does Bukayo Saka still have the same electric pace?
Bukayo Saka has not scored double-digit Premier League goals for Arsenal since the 2023/24 season, when he bagged 16 goals. Injuries and inconsistency have plagued him since then, with his haul from the last two league seasons totalling three fewer than he managed in his best campaign for the club to date.
After missing much of last season and then the World Cup due to injury, Saka has returned for Arsenal, a Premier League champion no less, and has begun the new campaign scoring three goals in five league games. On paper, you’d assume that this start to the new season would therefore see sentiment on the rise for the winger, but this doesn’t appear to be the case.
Weekly comments, replies and in-person conversations I have experienced have instead been quite the opposite. Criticisms of Saka’s performances, question marks over whether he is returning on his high earnings after signing a new deal earlier this year, and even some asking if 16-year-old Max Dowman could be asking some sterner questions of the England international.
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As for the latter point, Dowman is almost certainly viewed as a central figure of the future and an heir to Martin Odegaard’s role in the team, not as a right winger despite breaking into the team in the wide role. This is a typical tactic of Mikel Arteta’s for bedding in youngsters in many roles, like Myles Lewis-Skelly at left-back before moving into the middle and Ethan Nwaneri, who also broke into the side playing on the right.
Noni Madueke had plenty of opportunities last season while Saka was out. He started ten games between March 1 and April 25, and he had goal contributions in just two of those games.
While Saka has been dealing with an Achilles tendonitis issue, which is not an issue which just disappears, it is something the winger will need to manage with the help of the Arsenal medical staff. At the end of last season, he returned to score against Atletico Madrid, helping the side reach what was just their second ever UEFA Champions League final.
He scored the only goal in a 1-0 win at Brighton, a ground which Arsenal fans will know all too painfully how difficult it is to win there. In the 3-0 win over Fulham in the run-in, he scored a goal and grabbed an assist.
He would then produce the cross for Kai Havertz to score the only goal in the win over Burnley, the victory which was the Gunners’ last before being crowned Premier League champions.
At the start of this new season, he scored the second goal against Coventry City on the opening day, the winning goal against Aston Villa and won the penalty at Sunderland, which he would then score, to secure the three points.
Diving deeper into his numbers for the season so far, they paint a very clear picture. According to FotMob, compared to other Premier League wingers, per 90, Saka is in the top 10% for goals (0.65), the top 8% for non-penalty expected goals (0.69), the top 15% for shots (3.23) and the top 4% for shots on target (1.94).
Saka is in the top 18% for successful crosses (1.29), top 25% for successful dribbles (1.51), top 6% for duels win percentage (58.5%), and top 20% for duels won (6.46). He’s winning 3.23 fouls per 90, putting him in the top 6%, and getting 6.46 touches in the opposition box, which is in the top 14%.
Bearing in mind the context, too. Saka has started all five of the Gunners league matches, which include three of the toughest away trips in the league, two of which Arsenal failed to win last season: Aston Villa, Sunderland and Brighton. While the two home games include a 2-1 over high-spending Chelsea, who many had labelled as potential title contenders when the pair met on maximum points.
Bukayo Saka shot map for Arsenal in the Premier League 2026/27 season
Bukayo Saka shot map for Arsenal in the Premier League 2026/27 season(Image: FotMob)
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Now, there is no doubt that there are things Saka needs to sharpen, such as his finishing, which currently is underperforming from the 2 goals he’s scored to his 2.42 non-penalty expected goals. His pace does seem to have dropped, with his top speed of 32.2km/h lower than last season’s 33.7km/h.
Looking too at his shot map so far this season and you’ll notice that so far his three shots from outside the box, none have hit the target. It was this area Saka was known previously for his lethality, and this certainly can improve.
But there does appear more variation to the areas of the field where Saka is taking shots from. Popping up on the left side of the box too where a third of his shots on target have occurred from.
While a look at his heatmap also shows how close to the touchline the majority of his play is coming from. Compared to the previous two seasons, he was having more possession, cutting inside sooner.
Bukayo Saka heat maps for the current and previous two Arsenal Premier League seasons
Bukayo Saka heat maps for the current and previous two Arsenal Premier League seasons(Image: FotMob)
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The return to form of both Martin Odegaard and Kai Havertz is definitely a benefit, despite the team looking so poor at Brighton. The trip have been combining for the first time on a consistent basis since 2023/24.
But equally, relearning each other’s movements, having played with so many other players, will be a process. But with all three being the side’s top scorers so far this season, there is no doubt that it is certainly a journey producing results.
It is tempting to fall into the trap of the noise surrounding Saka, which, in all honesty, comes from a desire to see him do better, rather than anything malicious. Saka has set such high standards that it has become the norm benchmark rather than the impressive performances they were then.
Some time away with England will hopefully help sharpen the winger and when he returns to Arsenal for the visit of Leeds United at the Emirates Stadium, we can hope to expect some more fireworks again from Saka.